Gone Fishin’…

Yields on the U.S. Ten-Year Note signaled an imminent rise to as high as 4.80% with Friday’s powerful leap. Although we don’t typically use patterns as obvious as this one for trading purposes, it should prove reliable for forecasting rate changes over the next 3-4 weeks. The A-B impulse leg is a strong one, presumably with enough boost to reach the target. Moreover, a decisive overshoot would strongly imply a further move to the psychologically important 5% level. There is one more thing to note, based on the chart: once above the red line, a pullback that would be misread by many observers as a sign of easing would actually be giving 10-Year rates a running start at 5%.

It’s not just the daily graph that looks heavy. On both the weekly and monthly charts, ahead of the surge in March, price lows since early 2025 have exceeded granite Hidden Pivot supports. This suggests that crude’s histrionics in response to the war with Iran were all but ordained to fall short of significant new highs. But easing is another matter, since it could take months or even years for prices to settle down to whatever passes for normal in such heavily manipulated markets. In the meantime, we are fortunate that traders and investors have become bored half to death with Trump’s daily pronouncements on the war and the ‘situation’ in the Strait of Hormuz. Barring some unforeseen catastrophe in the Middle East, you can look for quotes to fall as low as 51.60 over the intermediate- to long-term. Two consecutive monthly closes below 85.54 would shorten the odds of this.

Microsoft still has room to fall, judging by the way sellers crushed the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 423.21 on Friday. The pattern is gnarly enough to qualify as experimental. Even so, it is a well-established rule of the Hidden Pivot Method that price action at p is definitive regardless of the quality of the pattern. Since there is no ambiguity about the decisiveness of p’s penetration, we can reliably conclude that d=380.10 is a very good bet to be reached. Nevertheless, if the stock were to reverse and touch the green line, the gyrations within the pattern’s b-c leg make a ‘mechanical’ short there less appealing than we should prefer.