The Morning Line

Craving a Token Piece of the Rock?

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Is there a tokenized investment in your future? With so many white elephants to unload, Wall Street’s rep could come calling on you at any time. He will offer you a virtual piece of America’s future, claiming it will grow wealth for your children and grandchildren. However, when you sit down with this cheery fellow to go over the fine print, just remember that his brain is nearly identical genetically to that of the seagull that swoops down on your lunch at a seaside café.

And exactly which piece of the rock will your hard-earned dollars secure? Almost certainly, the pitch will feature commercial real estate or AI infrastructure. The latter will include not only huge power plants and water coolers, along with acres of computers, but all the hot air exhausted by a Billionaire Boy’s Club that has been hustling some of the biggest projects the galaxy has ever seen.

Hot Air for Sale

Obsolete skyscrapers and AI’s overhyped revenue potential are the chief sources of anxiety in banksters’ portfolios these days, with notional sums at risk of perhaps $20 trillion or more, and growing. All of it has been financed to colossal excess by banks that have grown understandably eager to spread the risk onto rubes like you and me. Voila, the tokenized investment! That’s why tokens were invented: to divvy up epic chunks of glitz into a million pieces small enough for the little guy to get in on the action.

He needn’t worry about being shut out, since the deals just keep coming. So greedy and stupid are the lenders that they are still hatching galactic projects even as warning signs flash red. Oracle’s partnership with OpenAI, for instance. This gambit is slated to launch in 2027, and it is valued at $500 billion. The two companies would build data centers with 4.5 gigawatts of capacity, a tad less than New York City’s annual usage. Will the demand be there? Everyone on the sell side of the equation thinks so, but the outlook is not so optimistic if you ask highly paid tech workers who are being laid off by the tens of thousands these days.

Skyscrapers Are Dead

Real estate will be a harder sell for Wall Street’s seagull-brained predators, since we all understand that workers will never return to urban office towers. Their employers cannot successfully order them back, either, since, for reasons of cost and competitive pressures, most big companies no longer do business out of center-city skyscrapers. Still, there the buildings sit, urgently in need of hucksters to spread the cost of perpetually financing them over however many Millennials and Gen-Xers are fortunate enough to have savings to invest.

Thus, tokenized investments. It’s curious that this meme is being heated up for such an ambitious pitch, since we commonly associate the word ‘token’ with things that have no substance. As such, you could say that the sales force about to hit the streets with tokenized shares of office towers and AI infrastructure is like a belled cat, well exposed before they knock on your door. When they arrive, keep the latch on and ask them what, exactly, they are selling. (Is an AI job bust coming soon? Check out my latest interview with Jim Goddard on This Week in Money.)

Rick's Picks for Monday
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$CLM26 – June Crude (Last:94.40)

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The potentially important low I signaled a week ago caught the exact bottom of a powerful, $20 rally. It came within 11 cents of the 98.50 target for the June contract, then receded by nearly $6 to finish the week. Are bulls depleted? We may know soon, since, with moderate selling to start the new week, the retracement will test the 89.41 midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a reverse pattern on the daily chart (a= 96.93 on 4/13). It should hold if Crude is going to challenge the spike high at 104.34 recorded on March 9.  Otherwise, a decisive breach of p would open a path down to at least 80.43.  This analysis should prove as accurate as the one proffered last week, since the patterns on the chart are equally compelling.

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$GCM26 – June Gold (Last:4740.90)

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$SIK26 – May Silver (Last:76.414)

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:123.75)

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We caught a favorable breeze after getting long last week at 121.17, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the bullish reverse pattern shown. We seldom initiate ‘mechanical’ trades at the red line, but in doing so this time, we may have jumped the gun. The position feels a little precarious, so I’ll suggest taking a profit on half when this symbol starts trading on Monday morning. Assuming GDXJ opens above our acquisition price, you should set a break-even stop-loss for the rest.  Odds are still in our favor, given the easy move through p on the way up, and also the fact that it has racked up four consecutive weekly closes above p since the red line was first touched.

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$MSFT – Microsoft (Last:424.62)

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$ESM26 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:7195.50)

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$TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:43.10)

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