Still Fishin’…

The futures spent the last two sessions head-butting a modest midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 7582. You might think the failure to break through was a sign of weakness, but the opposite is true. Considering that no one but Trump and Vance is impressed with the cease-fire plan, and that the Fed is waxing hawkish, the lackluster performance of the S&P must be viewed as a volcano gathering subterranean force. The index hardly pulled back at all, and so we should expect it to launch anew on Monday, assuming Wall Street is not too hungover from Juneteenth craziness. Look for the E-Minis to ascend to D=7692.00, a sufficiently ‘D’ target to show tradeable stopping power. A dip first to the green line from above Thursday’s highs, however unlikely, would trigger a tempting ‘mechanical’ buy, so be ready if you know how to handle it with a small-pattern (i.e., ‘camo’) trigger. _______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 11:27): Cancel the trade (or exit it now for a nice profit if you got long at the green line). Mr Market is doing his utmost to screw with our heads, first by dropping ES to within a single point of the green line at 1:00 a.m. before popping off a 71-point rally.  He then plunged ES to the green line EXACTLY before embarking on the current, so-far 23-point, rally.  Since no subscriber mentioned any of this in the chat room, I will assume everyone either slept through it or ignored the opportunity.

An unorthodox target I’d drawn near 380 failed to contain the selling, so I’ve switched to a conventional pattern that projects significantly lower.  My expectations are bullish for the market as a whole when stocks start to trade on Sunday, and I don’t expect MSFT to go its own way. However, the stock’s decisive breach of the midpoint support (p=402.80) suggests it is likely to eventually reach the target. The implication is that MSFT and the broad average could head higher over the next few days, but the rally won’t get very far. We can adjust our expectations as more evidence becomes available.

Friday’s rally mirrored gold’s, meaning you shouldn’t get your hopes too high. The pattern suggests that once the bounce ends and silver resumes its downward course, it could eventually go as low as 54.735. That’s 20% below these levels, meaning a whole ‘nother bear market could unfold before Ag finds a bottom. If that sounds overly bearish, we can allow for the possibility that bulls have turned things around if the July contract surpasses the 77.355 peak recorded on June 2.  For current purposes, however, we’ll plan on trading with a bullish bias if and when the futures push above last week’s 68.800 peak. That would generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, brightening the short-term outlook. _______ UPDATE (Jun 21): As expected, a weak rally died before the futures could surpass even a single Hidden Pivot level on the daily chart. By week’s end, they appeared on track again for a fall to the 54.735 target shown. That would equate to a 53% drop since spot quotes peaked in late January around 123.

Yields on the Ten-Year Note have fallen sharply since getting within pitching wedge distance of the 4.75% target shown. It’s too early to say with confidence whether this is the beginning of a significant downtrend or just a correction that will eventually give way to a new upward surge. My strong gut feeling is the latter, but we may soon get to test that prediction if TNX continues down to the green line (x=4.58%). That would trigger a ‘mechanical’ buy signal with subsequent potential to reach p=44.90 or higher, an event that cannot but give us a definitive picture of trend strength.