The Morning Line

Another Side of ‘Billie Jean’

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Although we used to feature edgy market commentaries in this space, the time and effort spent crafting them is now devoted to making the Rick’s Picks Trading Room an absolutely unbeatable source of timely, profitable ideas for novices and professionals. Your editor must also confess that he was deeply tired of having to write regularly about a stock market energized by clueless money managers whose only trick is recklessly throwing Other People’s Money at some moronic investment-theme-of-the-week. Truth to tell, having to take the stock market seriously every week wore me down. You know it and I know it:  the stock market is just an epic con-job created and designed to enable The Elect to make vast sums of money without having to lift a finger or get their hands dirty.

You should make a habit of checking here weekly, though, since I will continue to post links to my latest interviews and to offer visual enticements designed to entertain, enlighten and even warn you. Much of it will come from YouTube, since their video catalog is vast and endlessly fascinating. Submissions, including home videos, are welcome and should be sent to this address.

To view this week’s entertaining offering, click here for an aural feast served up by Aubrey Logan, a jazz singer and trombonist who has a singularly rare gift for re-imagining iconic tracks — in this case Michael Jackson’s ‘Billie Jean’ — so that they become her own. She moves like she was born hard-wired to the beat of jazz. If you enjoy the vid, check out her witty riff on Sonny & Cher’s The Beat Goes On.

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The analytical ‘touts’ listed below, overhauled each Sunday and updated 24/7 during the week, will continue as always, as will their barbed emphasis on the striking similarities between Wall Street and sleazy carnival midways. The ridiculous accuracy of our trend calls and price targets is well known and a matter of daily record, but it must be observed up-close, and leveraged with actual trades, to be believed. On Friday morning, for instance, we recommended buying QQQ 720 put options that were trading at the time for for 1.67 if and when they came down 0.27. They did, bottoming at 0.25 exactly on schedule before rocketing to $3.55 in under 30 minutes, and then to 5.05 shortly thereafter. Just four options purchased initially at the recommended price for a total of $108 could have been cashed out an hour later for a little more than $2000. And there was more. Separately, December Wheat took a powerful leap precisely to a $7.83-per-bushel target that we’d “guaranteed” days earlier would be reached.

You can get in on the action by clicking here for a free trial (and no credit card is necessary). It will give you instant access to one of the best chat rooms in the trading world and other amenities on the site. Then click here for my most recent interview with Howe Street’s Jim Goddard on This Week in Money. We talk about the coming collapse of the AI bubble, and how stocks are currently being distributed ahead of a bear market that will begin with the MAGA era’s Waterloo in November.

Rick's Picks for Monday
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$TNX.X – Ten-Year Note Rate (Last:4.72%)

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Although rates on the Ten Year Note ended the week slightly beneath the previous week’s 4.74% high, the retracement was too shallow to infer that significant easing lies ahead. Further consolidation may be needed for a push to the 5.09% target, but don’t expect the pullback to go much lower than 4.58%, the Hidden Pivot midpoint support of the pattern shown. However, rates could fall as low as d=4.42% without significantly affecting the chart’s bullish look.  It has been nearly two decades since T-Notes exceeded 5%, reaching 5.31% in June of 2007 at the start of the Great Financial Crash.

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$ESU26 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:7724.00)

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$MSFT – Microsoft (Last:513.53)

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$GCZ26 – December Gold (Last:4530.2)

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$SIZ26 – December Silver (Last:67.78)

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The December contract tripped a theoretical sell signal when it dropped below the green line on Friday, but we’ll ignore this and give bulls the benefit of the doubt for the time being. Our flexibility is predicated on a test of support at the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 67.66. It was exceeded more than marginally on Friday, but if a second closing bar replicates this next Friday, that would open up a corrective path down to d=63.275. If that support, too, should fail, a decisive breach would be the most bearish signal we’ve seen on the weekly chart since March.

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$GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:128.80)

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$CLV26 – October Crude (Last:83.40)

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Crude has been mired in a $20 range, reflecting the contradictions of Hormuz. Although the channel has yet to swing wide open as Trump would have it, the flow of oil under U.S. naval escort has brought global supplies up to a level that has kept a lid on quotes. Friday’s early-morning rally was shortable under the circumstances, and the subsequent downtrend looked bound for the 77.35 target shown. The implied 7% decline from last week’s closing price would allow pump prices to recede, providing a break for travelers over Labor Day weekend. But any relief thereof would probably be limited, since there is no likelihood that Comex futures are about to dip significantly below 77.35.

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$SOXX – Semiconductor ETF (Last:543.27)


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