Was China’s Kung Fu Moon-Shot Real?

I posted a moderately bearish note in Silver in the chat room Friday, but by day’s end the little monster was threatening to trash my logic.  The March contract was on ‘mechanical’ short signals in two different time frames, one big, the other small, and things could have gone either way.  In fact, things went bonkers, stopping just shy of the 86.13 print needed to negate the lesser ‘sell’ signal.  Above it sits 91.285, which some may recall as the location of a stop-loss for the bigger-picture ‘mechanical’ short.  We should wait until these numbers are actually exceeded before we open a can of whoop-ass, but bullion looked primed to blow higher when trading resumes on Sunday.

Last week’s decline in 10-Year rates was the biggest since September, catalyzed by Fed easing of 25 basis points.  The chart implies there could be a further fall to as low as 3.706%, but I have my doubts. In fact, the steep slide triggered a ‘mechanical ‘buy’ at 4.073% that suggests rates are more likely to rise from here or perhaps a little lower, to at least 4.452%, than they are to fall below 3.937%.  If they crack that last number hard, however, odds of more slippage to 3.706% would be no worse than 50-50.  FYI, I’ve substituted the 10-Year for the 30 because the shorter duration is a more sensitive indicator of interest rate risk. ______ UPDATE (Feb 20): As anticipated, rates have taken a so-far modest bounce from just beneath last week’s settlement level. If the upward trend is going to get legs, a push above the 4.206% peak recorded on Feb 11 would announce it.

I restored AAPL to the core list last week with reservations. The company is a dim also-ran in the AI race, having only recently found a partner in Google, the creator of Gemini. There is also the chance Musk will eventually make iPhones obsolete. He keeps insisting that Starlink has no phone on the drawing board, but he’s probably just trying to screw with Tim Cooke’s head.  When the XPhone finally arrives, with superior hardware and no monthly service charge, that will be it for Apple.  Concerning the chart, AAPL’s steep slide on Friday triggered a ‘mechanical’ buy at the green line (259.09), stop 243.41. Ordinarily, we’re supposed to feel queasy about excuting such trades, since they will always be going against the trend. In this case, however, I will recommend it only to Pivoteers who know how to fashion a reverse-pattern trigger that risks no more than $3.00 per share theoretical on the entry.  It should be good for a one-level ride to p=274.76 if it works. _______ UPDATE (Feb 20): The long position suggested from 259.09 ended the week $5 in-the-black. Continue to hold for a shot at 274.76, or even 306.09. You can raise the stop-loss to 255.81. 

The chart is featured in the current commentary, but let me add a cautionary note for subscribers only. The 50K milestone that lies just a hair above Friday’s record settlement closely coincides with the 49,355 ‘D’ target of the pattern shown in the inset. My gut feeling is that the so-far slight overshoot of the target happened because traders were intent on hitting 50K regardless of any Hidden Pivots that may have stood in the way. We should infer in any case that there is double stopping power here, and that a significant pullback is distinctly possible, even if it turns out not to have been the start of a bear market. Since we should always have a higher target ready just in case, the 53,022 Hidden Pivot noted in the upper-right corner of the chart can serve that purpose. Assume it will be achieved if the Indoos close for two consecutive weekly bars above 50,600. _______ UPDATE (Jan 30):  The Dow has been jerking bears’ chains with a Wile E. Coyote dance inches from the potential top I’d warned about at 50,000. Sellers will need to penetrate the red line (p=48,270), however, before I can diss this gas-bag with enthusiasm and still sound credible.  Even then, it would be a good bet to fall no further than D=46,918, hinting that the broad averages, unlike bullion, are in shallow correction that will cause little pain or even anxiety. _______ UPDATE (Feb 8): The Dow broke out last week, but the follow-through could be less than spectacular. This chart shows a compelling Hidden Pivot resistance at 50,819, just 704 points, or 1.4%, above Friday’s closing price. _______ UPDATE (Feb 20): No change: 50,819 still looms as a potentially important number.