The speculative frenzy in silver has provided welcome relief from AI claptrap, but will it last? There are a hundred theories about why silver has come exuberantly to life after lagging gold for so long. I’ve been puzzled myself, since my technical runes suggest that gold futures could make an important top at $5132, about $800 above Friday’s settlement price. Silver would likely peak at the same time, unless the squeeze on physical supply were to pick up enough climactic energy to cause an historical readjustment in the gold:silver ratio. The Founders thought 15:1 was the correct peg, implying silver could be trading for $342 with gold at $5132. That sounds farfetched, but stranger things have happened in the financial world, especially in markets caught in short squeezes.
What is most peculiar about the current run on silver is that it probably couldn’t have occurred without Trump’s blessings. He has said he wants a much higher gold price in order to monetize America’s few remaining, unhocked assets (including residential real estate). Letting silver off the leash would make almost everyone feel at least a little richer. The problem is, some of Trump’s most powerful buddies in the banking business are short silver up the wazoo. Citi and B of A alone reportedly have loaned out at interest $4.5 billion of silver they do not possess, exposing themelves to potentially catastrophic losses if AG quotes should soar anew.
Trump’s Fortunes
And what if gold goes no higher than $5132? A corresponding top in silver followed by a steep slide in both could cap Trump’s fortunes. It would certainly destroy the comforting illusion that financial markets are under control. Of course, crazy ideas like that can only persist in bull markets. If stock averages were to sell off by 30%-40%, which they absolutely will at some point, whoever is President at the time will be not just a lame duck, but a dead duck. Keen for more of my latest rantings? Find them on This Week in Money by clicking here.
