The futures made a little headway toward the 2184.80 target with a marginal penetration of the pattern's midpoint resistance, p=2086.40. The target is slightly higher than the one given earlier, which used a one-off 'A' on the hourly chart. A pullback to the green line (x=2037.10) should be treated as a gift, since it would enable a 'mechanical' buy that looks quite fetching in prospect. The implied 50-point stop-loss would demand the use of a 'camouflage' trigger designed to cut entry risk by at least 90%. I will furnish timely details if possible, so be sure to check your email 'Notifications' if the trade gets close. _____ UPDATE (Jan 5): Sellers pushed the futures down to the green line, triggering a 'mechanical' buy with an unacceptably wide stop-loss at 1987.80. I did not put out a trade because there was no a-b segment clear enough to set up a lower-risk, reverse-pattern entry. We'll spectate for now, but with the goal of jumping in on the long side if the right opportunity comes along.
Not sure why the rally couldn't go the extra millimeter to achieve the 2086.40 rally target I'd set as a minimum target last week. To ease the burden on intermittently enfeebled buyers, I've lowered the bar slightly by shifting to a slightly higher 'A', a pretty little one-off low that I might have used initially. The correspondingly low p at 2084.60 hasn't changed the fact that bulls will need to blow past it to become a good bet to reach D=2181.20. In the meantime, don't pass up an opportunity to buy a swoon to x=2036.20, provided you know how to set up a 'camo' trigger to reduce the theoretical entry risk of nearly $20,000 on four contracts.
Feb Gold has been the unwitting slave of the bullish pattern show, with a 2250.00 target that has been in play since mid-October. The bounce off last week's low was encouraging, since the futures managed to finish the week with a gain that left it comfortably above the midpoint of the weekly range. Nasty takedowns are still possible, but $2000 may have become a floor beneath which bulls would swarm thin, insincere offers. _______ UPDATE (Dec 19, 1:47 p.m.): I said in the chat room that Feb Gold would hit 2086, but Martin Armstrong's cautionary cited in the chat room has reminded me that I should wait for that to happen instead of pretending I have a crystal ball that says it will. The chart is mildly encouraging because the recent high at 2152 impulsively exceeded May's 2140 peak. That means the subsequent plunge to 1987 was/is corrective. But there are no guarantees that the theoretical buy signal at x=2037 will get the futures to p=2086.4. I do hope this happens, however, since price action at p can tell us a lot about the health and sincerity of the uptrend since October. In theory, the bullish impulsiveness of the weekly chart could survive a plunge all the way down to 1845, even if few bulls would be left standing to cheer it.
Friday's dastardly takedown put the February contract on course for a drop to at least 2001.50. If that Hidden Pivot support fails to brake gold's fall, look for more slippage to 1986.90, calculated by shifting the pattern's point 'A' high five bars to the left. The scumballs who manipulate gold have demonstrated that they are capable of pulling out the rug whenever they please. However, given the run-up to a new record high at 2152 just before the sniper's head-shot, it has become more difficult for them to convince us that gold needs to correct much below 2000 while it vamps for a shot at 2200 and higher. _______ UPDATE (Dec 13, 11:03 p.m.): The futures trampolined $65 from within $1 of the 1986.90 bottoming target billboarded above. Everybody happy?
Buyers impaled the 2073.00 target of the reverse pattern shown, implying the futures are on their way to at least 2152.60, the D target of a lesser pattern whose A & C coordinates are shown in the chart. Given the way bulls consolidated above the smaller pattern's midpoint pivot, the probability is high that D will be achieved with little ado. Since the futures by then will have broken free of gravity at $2,000, we should expect a relatively quick move from 2152 to 2,200, the first round number resistance above the soon-to-be-obliterated one at $2,100. _______ UPDATE (Dec 8, 11:47 a.m.): I'll bet our old friend Andy Maguire had a thing or two to say about Monday's psychopathic, whoopee cushion reversal in gold. He has noted that the pond scum who cause these takedowns have a risk cushion of as much as $90 in the arb against unlimited paper gold. Although they are obviously still able to squash gold down to $2000 practically at will, DaScumballs are going to find in increasingly difficult to fool investors into thinking gold deserves to be significantly lower than that. For now, the February contract is headed down to the 2001.50 target shown in this chart -- a good place to attempt tightly stopped bottom-fishing. Any lower would indicate 1986.90, an even better bet for bottom-fishing if it is achieved.
Gold delivered on a 'mechanical' buy last week without getting anywhere near the 1955 stop-loss that would have applied. I'll therefore stick with the longstanding target at 2070.70, although the impulse leg that produced it leaves something to be desired. Specifically, it peaked without having exceeded the 'external' peak at 2028.60 recorded on July 20. The rally was impulsive nonetheless because it surpassed other 'external' peaks along the way, but the fact that it looked the high at 2028.60 in the eye, so to speak, without being able to hurdle it suggests reticence and uncertainty in buyers. ______ UPDATE (Nov 24): Scant progress last week produced no change in my analysis or outlook. _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 4:12 p.m.): With the futures head-butting peaks recorded on Halloween near $2,000, gold's handlers had little choice but to let 'er rip toward the $2070 target we've been using to keep from getting fooled or scared into submission. The smaller pattern shown in this chart, with a 2074.30 target, provides a finer shading if you want to trade this vehicle. ________ UPDATE (Nov 29, 10:53 a.m.): The effortless move through p=2033 of this pattern has all but clinched more upside over the next two weeks to at least 2131.00. Once buyers have pulverized that Hidden Pivot resistance, look for a blitzkrieg rally to 2200 and higher. ________ UPDATE (Dec 1, 10:45 a.m.): February Gold has precisely achieved a $2073 target equivalent to the still unachieved one at $2070 in the December contract. This is a contango oddity, but our focus should be on the February contract, since it is the active month. Here's the chart: https://bit.ly/3N7YgD7
Sellers took out the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1947.00 with such ease the more downside to at least p2=1910.70 seems unavoidable. Thereafter, continued weakness to as low as D=1874.30 would become likely if p2 is decisively penetrated. For all its disappointments, we need to keep reminding ourselves that gold is in a bull market and that it will turn $2,000 into support only when its handlers -- mainly sovereign banks in concert with bullion bankers -- decide it's time to let 'er rip. The former will continue to accumulate gold in the meantime, and so should we. Stay tuned to the chat room and keep your 'Notifications' switched on if you want guidance in real time. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 8:03 p.m.): If the rally hits the green line (X=1983.40), it would trip a 'mechanical' short. Paper trade this one just to keep score unless you know how to set up a 'camouflage' trigger
We've all been wondering when $2000 will start looking more like support than resistance, an eventuality that showed no sign of happening over the last few weeks with the futures cavorting there and teasing bulls. It was an annoying exercise in tedium as gold slid up and down a greased pole of hopes and expectations. It doesn't help that most of the action took place beneath a slew of 'external' peaks recorded last May and July. My hunch is that the excruciating excess of deliberation is a consolidation for a sustained move that will ultimately leave $2000 in the dust. We'll continue to trade with a bullish bias unless a salaciously appealing opportunity arises to get short temporarily.
Gold completed a shallow consolidation last week before launching toward the 2068.00 target we've been using as a minimum upside objective. If buyers plow through this Hidden Pivot, our next price objective would be 2133.10, calculated by sliding the point 'A' low of the reverse pattern down to an 1820.00 low recorded last November. That would produce a conventional ABCD pattern, but it would be sufficiently gnarly to make the resulting Hidden Pivot levels useful for trading.
With gold in one of its steepest climbs in recent memory, the 2068.00 rally target billboarded in my last update looks like a lock-up. The December contract's midweek stab through p=1945.80 all but clinched this outcome, along with a likely test of May's $2129 record high. That would bring into play an even bigger, bullish pattern begun in November 2022 from 1711 and which targets 2241.90. These are the most ambitious targets I've broached in a year, but my high confidence is commensurate with the rally's steepness and the intimidating difficulty of climbing aboard.
