The bullish pattern shown is somewhat gnarly, but there's nothing fancy about it, and there is no reason to think the 2306.20 target, which first appeared here a while ago, will not be reached. It should be held in mind as a minimum upside projection for the near term. A mechanical buy now at the red line is problematical, however, since the uptrend failed to touch p2 before it pulled back to the line. I doubt the correction will continue all the way down to the green line (x=2073.90), but that would certainly present an appealing 'mechanical' buying opportunity.
I've made a finicky adjustment to the point A low that yields a slightly lower rally target at 2269.10. Months of tedium at p do not allow certitude about whether D will be reached, nor does the stall precisely at p2=2167; however, my gut feeling is that 2269.10 will work as a minimum upside target. If April Gold gets no lift from last week's soporific string of lows near 2159.40, the next place you could step in to buy with a tight stop-loss would be at 2116.00. That's the 'd' target of a small reverse pattern on the daily chart. _______ UPDATE (Mar 21, 9:26 a.m.): The futures should be presumed bound for the 2306.20 target shown in this chart once they push decisively past the 2269.10 Hidden Pivot resistance noted above.
Although I promoted a 2307 target here last week, I'm going to dial it back a little with the 2276.60 target of a larger pattern. For reasons of clarity alone, it should take precedence over the higher number, and therefore be viewed as a potential rally-stopper. In any case, resistances at both p and p2 were violated so brutally that there should be little doubt about using 2276.60 as a minimum upside projection. The rally was too steep even when it began early last week to catch an easy ride. The same conditions will likely obtain this week, so any attempt to get aboard would need to come from an intraday set-up on the lesser charts.
Friday's surge will face a test of resistance at 2106.80, the 'd' target of the reverse pattern shown. If the futures go just a little higher, exceeding the 'external' peak at 2118.00 recorded on December 28, that would generate a strong impulse leg and open up a path to as high as 2204.00. The 'p' resistance associated with that target lies at 2105.80, meaning there are multiple 'hidden' impediments nearby that are going to put bulls' mettle to the test. A clean blast through all of these HPs will signal the tone change we've awaited since December. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 10:32 a.m.): As implied above, yesterday's blast through a tight cluster of 'hidden' resistances has put the futures on course for a run-up to at least 2204.00. Here's another target, never broached here before: 2307.00. It is derived from A=1861.70 on 10/6, and tied to p=2151.70, where a stall could occur. ______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 6:20 p.m.): The steep rally begun last Friday did in fact stall almost precisely at the 2150.70 Hidden Pivot identified in my last update. The pullback has been shallow so far, with no impact on the likelihood of D being reached. ______ UPDATE (Mar 6, 5:20 p.m.): The little poke through p=2151.70 may not look like much, but it is quite bullish for two reasons: 1) at that price, there is double resistance from two p midpoints of different degree; and, 2) the futures have closed above the resistance on the first bar in which they encountered the resistance. If the futures close above 2151.70 for a second consecutive day, that would shorten the odds of a further run-up to 2307.00 to no worse than an even bet.
The pattern shown, with a 2056.30 rally target, is not particularly bullish, but it looks serviceable for trading. A presumably corrective rally stalled Friday at 2026.40, the midpoint resistance, but any headway above it when the new week begins would imply the target is likely to be reached. A 'mechanical' buy at the green line looks promising, but I'd suggest that you act only if the pullback has come from above p=2026.40, especially if it is exceeded decisively. _______ UPDATE (Feb 23): Last week's modest rally fell a few dollars shy of the 2056.30 target flagged above, but you can expect it to be reached within the next couple of days. It is shortable via a tight 'reverse pattern' for subscribers who are familiar with this tactic. The pattern can also be used for 'mechanical' buying at either p or x if the futures favor us with a swoon,
Ten mincing steps higher, one or two devastating steps back. That's the way gold rolls. It is such as nasty little sonofabitch that we can only infer Mr Market is intent on terminally discouraging every last bull before he lets it fly. The chart shown is short-term bearish, although not horrifically so. It suggests the futures are on their way down to at least 2017.50 most immediately. There's a chance it could catch a bounce at p2=2028.50, in which case you'll want to use a tight trigger interval of perhaps 2 points for bottom-fishing. Make sure it's tied visually to a clear 'a-b' leg on the 30-minute chart or less. There is also voodoo number just above p2 that I will leave to be discovered and used by hawk-eyed Pivoteers.
Gold is technically in a bullish phase, having completed a correction down to the 201.40 target of the reverse pattern shown. The initial move off the low was sufficiently robust to affirm the bullish picture. However, price action since has been feeble, presumably because the steep, month-long rally from October's 1861 low needs more time to consolidate before the futures embark on another powerful run-up. We can only bide our time while bullion dithers, since trading the relatively small oscillations is hard work. I will signal nonetheless if an exceptional opportunity (i.e., a potentially important low) should develop.
I wouldn't trust a rally if it starts the week, but neither am I inclined to bottom-fish until such time as the futures drop into 'voodoo' territory just below 2000. A dip beneath two January lows near 2004 is obligatory in any event, so let's watch for it to develop. If and when that happens, we may be able to find a reverse pattern trigger of small degree to catch a ride north. Big, meaningless days seem to be cropping up with greater frequency lately, so we should resolve to remain unexcitable if anything interesting appears to be happening.
Gold has relapsed to the green line twice since triggering what had looked like a fine mechanical buying opportunity shortly before Christmas. It has done little since but tease, vex and antagonize, but if past is precedent, the tedium will be broken soon by a big rally to the 2184.80 target shown. That's no assurance that buying now, at levels beneath where we might have been long anyway, will produce a better trade. Since the futures remain in theory a good bet to rally back up to p=2086.40, we'll continue to look for ways to get aboard with risk tightly controlled. The entry risk for the 'textbook' 'mechanical' buy was $20k on four contracts.
Feb Gold's bounce from the green line took time to develop and is still not airborne. But the uptrend should at least reach the red line, validating the strong 'mechanical' buy signal that triggered on the pullback. We are used to disappointment in this vehicle, and impatient about when the long-term bull market will once again shift into high gear. When it does, the next target of consequences above the one at 2184.80 show in the chart lies at 2273.60, a Hidden Pivot resistance derived from a continuous monthly chart where A=681 in 2008.
