Gold

I've drawn a cautionary pattern because gold is long overdue for a full abcd correction, and because Friday's high occurred almost precisely at a 3261.40 target I'd posted in the chat room around 10:00 a.m.  Assuming the high endures, the rABC pattern implies a pullback to the 2868.60 'd' target is likely. (Note: You'll need to shift 'c' upward if gold continues to rise.) The years-old 'a-b' segment remains viable because no pullback since this leg was completed in 2021 has reached 'd'.  If it does now, that would amount to a 12% correction. You can bottom-fish with a tight stop at p, but be aware that its decisive breach, wherever it occurs, would warn of more slippage to 'd' or lower. _______ UPDATE (Apr 14, 1:25 p.m.): The correction predicted for gold using the weekly chart (see ‘above) would be quite painful, but there is a milder scenario suggested by the hourly chart reproduced here. June Gold, playing coy, has not yet tripped a theoretical sell signal by touching the green line (x=3205.20), but if and when it does, it should be presumed bound for the midpoint Hidden Pivot support (p) at 3147.40. We’ll be better able to judge the strength of the downtrend after we’ve seen sellers interact with p. A decisive penetration on first contact would imply more weakness, as would a subsequent overshoot of d=3031.80. Both levels can be bottom-fished with a tight stop-loss. (Note: So much for weakness!  The futures still haven't tripped a sell signal, never mind sold off. The chart has been updated and slightly revised, since the original ‘c’ coordinate was slightly off.)

The corrective pattern shown should eliminate all the guesswork, since it says quite clearly that June Gold will fall to at least 2941.49 before it can consolidate for a run-up to new record highs above $3500. If the futures should rally from Friday's lows near 3032 to the green line (x=3136.60), don't get caught up in the excitement, since that would trigger a juicy 'mechanical' short. The 2941.4 downside target will be a back-up-the-truck number for attempting tightly stopped bottom-fishing, but it will take at least 10-12 trading days for the futures to get there. ______ UPDATE (Apr 9, 9:38 a.m.): The futures went no lower than 2970 before launching anew.  This morning's sensational rally looks bound for a minimum 3141.40, a further $50 above.  ______ UPDATE (Apr 11, 9:57 a.m. EDT): Gold is head-butting the 3261.40 target of this pattern and could use a rest. If bulls shred their way past it, it will shorten the odds that my big-picture target at 3533 target will be reached, and probably sooner rather than later.

Gold's steep rally has left doubters on the sidelines since January, a high price to pay for hesitating. The rally looks bound most immediately for 3198.70, a presumptive weigh station en route to the 3533.90 target of a larger pattern noted here earlier. That number is associated with a 'midpoint Hidden Pivot' at 3037 that should slow bulls down for a while, perhaps 2-3 weeks.  If not, and the April futures forge intrepidly higher, it would shorten the odds of a run-up to 3553.90.  An additional 'hidden' resistance you should prepare for lies at 3285.80. It can be shorted with a 'camo' trigger fashioned from the 15-minute chart.

The small poke through our longstanding Hidden Pivot target at 3040.90 implies prices will continue higher, notwithstanding occasional shakedowns by the sleazeball who control bullion markets.  Although I recently billboarded an ambitious target at 3533 to lift your imagination, a more immediate prospect is 3198.70, the 'D' target of a smaller pattern. A pullback to 2932.80 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy signal, but the 2844.00 stop-loss is unacceptably large.  Use a 'camouflage' trigger for this one, meaning an entry set-up crafted from 15-minute charts or lower once 2932.80 has been touched.

Once again, we return to a familiar target at 3040.90 that has kept us on the right side of the trend since late 2024, when there were nagging doubts.  I could have done with a little more consolidation before the April contract broke out of a fraught range last week, but I don't have much control over such things; I only try to see them coming. The daily chart suggests possible success bottom-fishing a moderate pullback to 2958.30 as the week begins.  I put out a target last week at 3230 that came from a 'blended' monthly chart, but let's upgrade that to the 3533.90 target shown. A stall precisely at p=3037.70 would help validate the pattern. It would also set up a promising 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x=2789.60 once the futures have reached the sweet spot between p and p2.

I don't usually discard the old tout when I update during the week, but this time I'll make an exception for the sake of clarity. The original tout was wishy-washy bullish, but the new one keys off a chart with no wiggle room.  The April contract appears certain to fall to the 2876.40 midpoint Hidden Pivot support.  That will be an opportune spot to try bottom-fishing with the tightest stop-loss you can construct. (It should be no wider than 2872.40 in any case.) However, if it doesn't hold, and especially if the futures close for two consecutive days below it or trade lower than 2862, expect more slippage to D=2811.40.  The obviousness of the pattern will work against its providing perfectly precise reversal points, but they should be good enough for government work because the pattern, with a very kosher A-B impulse leg, is so compelling. ______ UPDATE (Mar 12, 4:42 p.m.): April Gold has rallied robustly over the last two days, but I doubt that it is about to take out the old high at 2974.00 straightaway. A 'voodoo' resistance at 2961.50 could test this theory, but if the futures relapse instead, look for the selling to hit 2884.00, at least. That is the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a conventional pattern drawn from the top, with a D target at 2819.00.

Gold's last bounce originated in a healthy spot, the 2844 midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the corrective pattern shown. A decisive plunge through that level would imply more slippage to as low as d=2714.7, but there is nothing in the price action of the last two weeks to suggest that is likely. The April contract may need to consolidate some more before it can attempt a push to new record highs above 2974.00, but even a mellow dip beneath 2844 would not spoil the bullish picture. If the futures were to fall to 2714 nonetheless, that would be an opportune spot to load up the truck.

Gold had a brush with serious injury on Friday when it touched a 2844.10 midpoint Hidden Pivot support associated with a worst-case 'd' target at 2714.10.  The April contract took a robust bounce to end the week, but a retest of the support is likely. It would require two consecutive weekly closes below p=2844.10, however, to imply that more downside to D awaits. Regardless, the futures were a good bet for bottom-fishing near Friday's lows. Immediate potential was to 2876.60 (30m, a= 2903.30 on 2/26), or 2889.10 if any higher. If an upthrust decisively penetrates that last Hidden Pivot resistance, it would imply that bulls have regained control of gold. Alternatively, a crushing fall through 2844.10 would portend more slippage to at least 2779.10.

We've used 3040.90 as a minimum upside target for the bull cycle that began last summer, but let's be prepared for a possible top somewhat below it, at 2992.50. This Hidden Pivot resistance is derived from a pattern with a somewhat higher point of origin. Conjecture favors reaching the higher target, since the so-far 12-day consolidation off the recent high would seem sufficient to push the futures more than the 20 additional points needed to reach 2992.50. We needn't play defense, however, since it will be possible to attempt shorting there without risking more than relative pocket change. ______ UPDATE (Feb 25, 7:54): As noted above, there are outstanding rally targets for Comex April Gold at, respectively, 2992.50 and 3040.90 (an oldie). Despite gold’s stall, they remain viable, but I'll use February 12's 2886.50 low as a fail-safe point. Any slippage beneath this number would be warning that bullion prices are about to come down with the broad averages. _______ UPDATE (Feb 27, 12:58 p.m.): This morning’s breach of my ‘fail-safe’ number in gold (see my last update) portends more slippage in the April contract, currently quoted at 2894.25, to at least 2853.50. If that Hidden Pivot support fails, bet on 2813.50 as a worst-case target for the near term (i.e., 2-5 days). You can buy there aggressively with a tight stop-loss, but there are no guarantees the bounce will get legs.