ESM13

We were briefly in a trade yesterday that was flagged in timely fashion by an alert chat-roomer who goes by the handle 'Kibitzer'.  Kibitzer he manifestly is not, since this opportunity had some serious mojo going for it, camo-wise.  The trade went on to reach its 'D' target at 1557.00, but not before I'd suggested tightening the stop-loss sufficiently to turn Kibitzer's $600 winner into a $125 semi-quasi-pseudo winner. The broad averages underperformed my expectations yesterday, but I still think DaBoyz are simply marking time, waiting for news from Europe to recede from view, albeit perhaps only temporarily.  When liftoff finally occurs, presumably by no later than Friday, you can safely assume the futures are bound for the 1594.25 target, at least.  Camouflageurs, please take note:  a move to the target would become an  odds-on bet if the futures close above the 1562.00 midpoint resistance.  Click here to sample Rick's Picks free for a week, including the chat room.

The 1617.84 S&P 500 rally target flagged in today's commentary implies that trading should be done from the long side right now, preferably via camouflage. To assist you in this task, I've reproduced a 10-minute chart of the E-Mini S&Ps that contains the kind of subtleties we require when attempting to board such a well-advanced trend. Indeed, an entry signal that I've labeled with an 'x' has been tripped in the last hour. I am recommending that you use the 10-minute bars, as I have, to identify similarly promising opportunities. _______ UPDATE (11:49 a.m. EDT):  In the chat room this morning, an alert 'Kibitzer' signaled a bull trade that is working out nicely at this point.  Here's the recaptitulation: 1) (11:07 a.m.) K: We have a tentative C at 1551 (x= +1.75 points); 11:13 x triggered; 2) RA:  (11:13 a.m.) Thank you, Kibitzer. Off an actual low of 1550.75, entry was signaled at 1552.50. P=1554.00, where half is to be exited. D=1557.00; K (11:19): Midpoint success; RA (11:30): Yes, success indeed. U are out of half, with a 1551.00 cost basis for what remains. Use a fixed stop-loss at 1550.50, o-c-o with an order to close out an additional 25% of the original position at 1557.00.

Cyprus depositors and bondholders have taken a mortal hit, and the episode seems likely in my estimation to have far-reaching consequences that will rival those set in motion by the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914. For now, though, the OPM-mongers who move markets are treating it as a non-event, as are the lazy, clueless hacks who write the news. Notice that the corrective abc in the chart reversed from just below p to create a bullish impulse leg.  This 'duel' suggests that bulls are merely marking time, waiting for Cyprus to blow over, before they take stocks still higher. For camo traders, this suggests that buying opportunities will best be found near p and d pivots of downtrending abc patterns.  Click here to find out more about Rick's proprietary method of trading and technical analysis. Rick majored in English lit, implying that just about anyone can learn how to use Hidden Pivot Analysis and 'camouflage' trading tactics.

The hysterics of the last few days have alleviated the boredom of a rally that had been largely untradable for weeks, but we should be careful what we wish for, since we've now got a real handful. Much as the permabear in me would like to say it's a topping pattern, notice how the minor abc corrections are not reaching their 'd' targets -- are in fact reversing from near their 'p' midpoints. The implied bullishness of such price action would be further affirmed by an impulsive upthrust, but that too has been missing, at least so far.  It would be remedied by a print exceeding the 1547.50 'external' peak that I've labeled. If you're looking to get long via camouflage, I'd suggest jumping on the trade if a pattern develops that yields a b-c pullback from just above 1547.50. Click here to learn more about my proprietary 'camouflage' trading method.

Amazing!  Nothing....NOTHING seems to spook this market. I was looking for a 30-point gap-down opening in the E-Mini S&P Sunday night, but the Sleazeballs who control it needed only an 11-point discount from Friday's settlement to put out what they must have felt was a larcenous bid. Granted, it has taken a further markdown of 11 points to carve out a tentative low at 1531.00, but even at that price the Dow would open only 180 points lower on Monday. It feels to me like DaSleazeballs view the ostensibly scary news from Cyprus as a shakedown opportunity.  Or perhaps index futures are down only modestly because the only players left in the game are other shakedown artists? In any case, the selloff so far is bearishly impulsive on all charts up to and including the daily, but we won't know if there is real fear behind it until we've seen an upward correction and downside follow-through attempt.  If it turns higher from the C-D midpoint (see inset), however, that will be good evidence that DaBoyz are capable of taking the news from Cyprus easily in stride.  ______ UPDATE (10:29 a.m. EDT):  The analysis above got it precisely right, since the futures have been moving relentlessly higher since 2 a.m., recouping about 70% of their losses following an overnight low of 1529.50. It seems a foregone conclusion at this point that any follow-through selling will be reversed from p or higher.  A further possibility is that there will be no c-d downleg, only a rally from last night's criminally engineered low that keeps on going...and going...and going.

A long-term rally target at 1535.25 has been obliterated with last week's surge, having been surpassed by a decisive 12.50 points. We'll keep a close eye on things just to make sure it's no bull trap, but the evidence so far suggests that significantly higher highs lie ahead. A logical target for now is the 1624.75 Hidden Pivot resistance shown.  Although this ignores several ABC patterns of larger degree, it gives us a precise number to shoot for that will remain viable no matter what the bigger picture might say.  A stall at its midpoint sibling, 1551.00, would corroborate this.