Tutorials

July 28th: Life After Bullseyes

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Rick’s Picks had hit some forecasting bullseyes recently in shares, bonds and gold, so we took a close look at where these vehicles might be headed next. Although we try to come away from Wednesday sessions with a tradable idea or two, in this case neither gold futures nor the E-Mini S&Ps looked very appealing. The latter was in a corrective downtrend; however, with just three more points of downside remaining to the target, we electde to do nothing. Gold was bouncing weakly from within 0.60 points of a correction target at 1155.00, and although we were expecting a further fall to 1140.00 in the days ahead, there was little reason to jump into the thick of a suspected distribution.

June 23rd Tutorial: Using the Scalpel and Forceps

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Using scalpel and forceps to expose some finely nuanced price action in Gold and the E-Mini S&Ps, we were able to identify Hidden Pivot targets in each that promised to be tradable later in the day with relatively little risk. Both vehicles were falling, and although the evidence was strong that the weakness would continue over the near term, we established clear and precise parameters that would allow us to detect a bullish turn from the very subtlest beginnings. And one more thing. Bill Gross, please take note: 30-Year Bond Futures are going much higher – to at least 128^07.

June 16 Tutorial: When NOT to Trade

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Sometimes we can learn more on do-nothing days than on days when the markets are hyperactive. Both Gold and the E-Mini S&Ps were in a wallow on this particular morning, and it allowed us to discover reasons why we should temporarily avoid trading either vehicle. We also considered the recent, spectacular move in coffee futures, focusing on some of the reasons why we should assiduously avoid entanglements with the gunslingers who trade this commodity. Finally, we looked a Silver Wheaton and decided that, for this stock, at least, all is right with the world.

June 9th Tutorial: Deconstructing Gas-baggery

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Stocks were in gas-bag mode as the class began, providing us with a timely and exhilarating opportunity to predict exactly where the short-squeeze would end for the E-Mini S&P. Our guess got us within two ticks of the actual high – alas, not quite close enough to trigger the short from 1078.25 that we’d agreed upon. We also pored over Comex Gold’s charts on a day when bears were heavily on the offensive. The August contract was down more than $20, but the daily chart was reassuring us that this was healthy and bullish – a correction, probably, rather than the start of a major downtrend.

June 2nd Tutorial: Honing Our Forecasting Chops

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With good trading opportunities in relatively short supply this morning, we worked mainly on our analytical and forecasting chops. Scrutinizing the longer-term charts of several key vehicles tracked by Rick’s Picks, we found encouraging signs in Gold, while noting evidence of weakness yet to come in Crude, the Euro and the E-Mini S&P. For those who take the time to review this recording within the next day or two, there’s a bonus in the form of a bearish Hidden Pivot target for the June Euro contract that looks like it will be very tradable.

May 5, 2010 Tutorial: The Zen Novice

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A great lesson on camouflage, this session demonstrates why it is possible even for a relative beginner to hit ten winning trades in a row, and to do so without ever risking more than mere pocket change. By focusing on two very subtle buying opportunities – one in gold, the other in the E-Mini S&Ps – that occurred following steep declines that morning in each, we found a way to board nascent uptrends with calm confidence.

April 21, 2010 Tutorial: Good Material on a Dull Day

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On a fairly dull day, we still managed to turn up some subtleties in charts for Gold and the E-Mini S&Ps that were instructive and illuminating. Day-trading opportunities in these two vehicles had already passed, but a close inspection of the charts revealed that the risk in either instance would have been minimal. We also pored over the 30-Year Bond chart, concluding that any exceptional opportunities we might find therein were probably illusory. Indeed, T-bonds have been saying nothing for four months, and there were no signs that that is about to change.

April 14, 2010 Tutorial: Ignoring Our Instincts

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So why did we remain steadfastly bullish on gold in the wake of this week’s $25 selloff? Because June Gold torpedoed a ‘D’ rally target just before the selloff, is why. In today’s presentation, we took the time to rediscover the subtle analytical strength of the Hidden Pivot Method. Said strength lies, not in the ability to predict swing highs and lows with two-decimal accuracy, which we do often enough, but to correctly forecast the trend even when it seems to defy every shred of logic in one’s brain. To conclude the session, looking at July Corn, we predicted doom for bulls on the basis of a price gap through a minor midpoint support.

Apr. 7, 2010 Tutorial:Strong Signs in Gold & Oil

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Gold was as strong as we’ve seen it in a while, up nearly $18 on the day and trading just above an 1148.00 rally target we’d used as a minimum upside projection. Our focus was not so much on marquee numbers and drum-roll targets, however, but on certain analytical details that can tell us whether the underlying trend is healthy. The answer was an unqualified yes in bullion, although, as we saw, not in such commodity staples as corn and wheat. Crude’s surge shows no signs of relenting, and so we should expect to see prices top $100 in this cycle.

Mar. 31, 2010 Tutorial: Corn, Ahoy!

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We took the time to examine Apple’s charts closely, since a potentially tradable opportunity in the stock was featured in the day’s touts. As it happened, the trade triggered, albeit not in the way we’d expected. We also took a look at May Corn, which had just penetrated a key support. Although the breach was slight, it was deemed sufficient to imply that a breakdown as large as 20 percent lies ahead. Copper’s chart showed no such weakness, suggesting that it is mainly agricultural commodities that are headed for a fall.