A 3040.90 rally target proffered here earlier remains viable, although we should be prepared for a possible stall at 2927.40, a 'secondary' Hidden Pivot. If buyers fist-pump their way through it, that would firm the case for a follow-through to at least 3040.90. The target might not work precisely because of the pattern's murky origins in a clutter of possible starting points. It is good enough for government work, however, and has kept us on the right side of the trend even when bullion was getting slammed by the white-shoe hoodlums who run the show. The ascent to 3040.90 could be relatively steep, since the breakout two weeks ago blew the cover of central banks and others who had been quietly accumulating gold after it stalled in November and traded in a range for several months.
The March contract is poised for a breakout above an 'external peak at 33.330 recorded in mid-December. This would be quite bullish since it would activate a larger pattern that projects as high as 36.240. My minimum upside projection would be 34.46, the large pattern's secondary Hidden Pivot. The breakout was telegraphed a month ago when March Silver struggled to reach a 28.245 correction target. The futures went no lower than 29.145, implying that sellers were too depleted to finish the job. The more or less inevitable rally that followed was extremely choppy, suggesting there were plenty of skeptics and also daunting supply. Once above 33.33, however, bulls will have a clear path to highs above 35 unseen since 2012.
GDXJ remains an odds-on bet to reach the 54.92 Hidden Pivot target shown. This was all but ensured when bulls gapped through the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p) at 48.39 on January 30. An additional sign of strength is that there have been no selloffs on the daily chart to enable a 'mechanical' buy at either x (the green line) or p (the red line). Only true believers would be on board at this point, since the steepness of the rally has left doubters choking on dust. The 54.92 target should be regarded as a minimum objective, since using the lower point 'A' available at 40.26 (August 5) yields an alternative projection to 57.17. The pattern has a 'secondary' Hidden Pivot at 53.34 where you should be prepared for at least slight resistance and perhaps even a tradable pullback. Long-term investors should consider covered-writes there.
Unlike AAPL, Microsoft's weakness cannot be attributed to unforced errors, or even to the prospect of recession. The stock has simply leveled off after a spectacular run-up in the first half of 2024. There isn't much to support it just below, however, and that's why it could fall hard if just one engine sputters out. I'd be inclined to try bottom-fishing at 393.19, an interesting voodoo number, in any case, but with a very tight stop loss created with a small 'reverse pattern'. If this magic level were to give way, the next stop would likely be around 375, where a cluster of obscure supports lies.
TLT has taken three big leaps since bottoming in mid-January, but only one of them exceeded an 'external' peak. Still more dispiriting is that the last sputtered out almost precisely at an upward correction target, well shy of an important 'external' high at 90.99 recorded on December 17. The rally appears to have been a garden-variety correction in an ongoing bear market, although we'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt until such time as the pullback starts exceeding prior lows. The rally corresponds to a drop in Ten Year interest rates that appears to have bottomed synchronously near a Hidden Pivot support at 4.43%. The downward move in rates began in mid-January from 4.81%.
Rates on the Ten-Year Note have fallen to 4.41% since peaking in mid-January at 4.81%. The low was slightly beneath my target at 4.43%, an overshoot that mildly implies rates will continue lower. However, Friday's bounce to 4.51% was significant enough to suggest the downtrend may have ended. I've given bulls the benefit of the don't in TLT, which is equivalent to saying interest-rate bears -- i.e., those expecting lower rates -- deserve the same benefit of the doubt. However, if this bounce should exceed the 4.60% peak from February 2, that would be a reason to infer that rates bottomed with the recent low.
Our favorite little wack-a-doodle spent the week out on the ledge, unable to decide whether to splatter the sidewalk or leap up into the old wazoo of impatient bears. Any forthcoming decision could be moot, since I've got an outstanding rally target at 116,807 that could pull Bitcoin out of a funk any time things start looking ugly. Even so, I've reversed the polarity of my recent outlook with a chart that favors a corrective slide to at least 91,119, or 87,293 if any lower. This is mildly speculative, since BTCUSD never even tested the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 94,946, much less penetrate it. If penetration happens decisively over the weekend or on Monday, consider the corrective scenario a done deal. Regardless, you could attempt to bottom-fish at the red line, provided you've got the 'camouflage' chops to cut the entry risk down to small change.
The week ended with the futures on a 'mechanical' sell signal that is showing a nice profit, but I doubt whether the downtrend will reach the 'D' target at 5864. This is the second such signal in two weeks, the first having produced a theoretical gain of as much as $4,000 per contract. The subsequent bounce made up the lost ground and then some, demonstrating that bulls are not about to roll over quietly when the occasional barrage of selling hits. Look for the current weakness to find at least temporary support, potentially tradable, at 6014.25 (60m, A=.6147.75 on 1/31). A decisive penetration of that Hidden Pivot support on first contact would imply further slippage to at least 5961.25. _______ UPDATE (Feb 10, 7:40 a.m. EST): The futures have taken a so-far 68-point bounce from within a single tick of the 6014.25 Hidden Pivot support I'd suggested using for bottom-fishing. A single contract purchased there when the futures began trading Sunday could have reaped a profit of as much as $3800.
This week's chart gives the S&PS room to make a somewhat higher high before their inevitable collapse. My recent forecasts have brimmed with confidence that the end is nigh, especially now that a multitrillion-dollar AI investment bubble must be unwound. Even so, the stakeholders are some of the biggest, most powerful financial entities in the world, so we shouldn't doubt their ability to squeeze stocks higher against all reason and logic, the better to distribute as much horrifically overpriced stocks to the rubes as they can. The chart shows a 6704 bull market target that lies 10% above. However, because of the balky, drawn-out move through p=5961 midpoint pivot, a follow-through to the target is hardly a done deal. That's why I am forecasting that p2=6332 will mark The Top. It's also possible the broad averages will make their final highs here, midway between p and p2, although that would be an unusual place for such a spectacular bull run to end. For now, though, we'll trade with a mildly bullish bias until minor, uptrending ABCD patterns start falling short. The most immediate rally target of consequence lies at 6301, 234 points above. In the meantime, you can buy a pullback to 6036.25 'mechanically' with a 5947 stop-loss. ________ UPDATE (Feb 3, 9:36 a.m. EST): The futures are unavoidably on their way down to exactly 5863.75, a Hidden Pivot obscure enough to work well for bottom-fishing. Your trading bias should be bearish at least until it gets there. Here's the chart.
The world's most important stock, supported by bombproof annual revenues approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars,+ has been trapped in a tedious range since July. Is it being distributed to widows and pensioners, or are the institutional geniuses who have held it forever simply marking time ahead of their next opportunity to mark it up? Whatever the case, it has been tightly controlled within a gently pitched channel that contains no breakouts or breakdowns. My gut feeling is that this is about to change with a gratuitous fall to 393.19, a voodoo number suited for aggressive bottom-fishing. I would suggest using a trigger interval no wider than 1.50 points, with the 'c' low planted within $1.00 or less of the voodoo.
