Rick’s Picks

The chart is nearly identical to the one accompanying this week's commentary, but I'll add a proprietary detail that will allow you to plot the next three moves rather than just two.  I already mentioned that the selloff of the last three weeks could reverse from a 'voodoo' number at 5641.50.  However, if the bounce comes from 5555.00 as is more likely, it would be a good bet to terminate at either 5733.25, or if any higher, at 5912.00.  By all means, jot those numbers down, since they offer a possible way to get a tight, tradable handle on price action over the next 3-4 weeks. ______ UPDATE Mar 12): A so-far feeble bounce has come from 5534.00, 0.3% below the 5555 target given above. However, it would need to punch through Hidden Pivot resistance at 5712.75 to be judged significant.  The equivalent resistance for the June contract is 5765.25, and its decisive breach could open a path to as high as 5945.50 -- a bear rally worthy of the name.

Although a longstanding correction target at 373.39 remains viable, we'll go with a more timely picture that is bullish and which projects a bounce to as high as 418.66.  Friday's dip to the green line (x=390.43) triggered a 'mechanical' buy short that would require a 380 stop-loss, but we'll paper trade this one for now. It should be good for a ride up to at least p=399.83, but a decisive move through that midpoint Hidden Pivot would open a path to the 'd' target at 418 mentioned above.  _______ UPDATE (March 10, 11:00 a.m.): My apologies for the rickism of the month. I've corrected the trade noted above that was triggered at 390.43, since it was a 'mechanical' buy under discussion, not a short sale. Also, in case you didn't notice, MSFT failed to bounce and is falling with a vengeance, presumably to the 373.39 target we've been using for quite some time. _______ UPDATE (Mar 12): The bombed-out low of Microsoft's 40-point slide over the last three weeks missed my target by 3.52, or 0.9%, but a relapse that would fulfill the target exactly is still possible.  It would be worth bottom-fishing.

Bitcoin's lunatic swings are probably sufficient to ward off most bears, but those with enough guts to short the rallies are primed to make money. The nearly $13,000 swoon that began the week held bulls and bears within a tight range (i.e., $8000), but the breakdown that's coming will not pick up much support until BTCUSD is trading in the 70k-75k range. That might not have a measurable effect on the kahunas who control this vehicle since they never sell the stuff, but any Robinhoodies who have been buying all the way down will be feeling real pain by then.

I don't usually discard the old tout when I update during the week, but this time I'll make an exception for the sake of clarity. The original tout was wishy-washy bullish, but the new one keys off a chart with no wiggle room.  The April contract appears certain to fall to the 2876.40 midpoint Hidden Pivot support.  That will be an opportune spot to try bottom-fishing with the tightest stop-loss you can construct. (It should be no wider than 2872.40 in any case.) However, if it doesn't hold, and especially if the futures close for two consecutive days below it or trade lower than 2862, expect more slippage to D=2811.40.  The obviousness of the pattern will work against its providing perfectly precise reversal points, but they should be good enough for government work because the pattern, with a very kosher A-B impulse leg, is so compelling. ______ UPDATE (Mar 12, 4:42 p.m.): April Gold has rallied robustly over the last two days, but I doubt that it is about to take out the old high at 2974.00 straightaway. A 'voodoo' resistance at 2961.50 could test this theory, but if the futures relapse instead, look for the selling to hit 2884.00, at least. That is the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a conventional pattern drawn from the top, with a D target at 2819.00.

Gold's last bounce originated in a healthy spot, the 2844 midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the corrective pattern shown. A decisive plunge through that level would imply more slippage to as low as d=2714.7, but there is nothing in the price action of the last two weeks to suggest that is likely. The April contract may need to consolidate some more before it can attempt a push to new record highs above 2974.00, but even a mellow dip beneath 2844 would not spoil the bullish picture. If the futures were to fall to 2714 nonetheless, that would be an opportune spot to load up the truck.

Silver and gold have not quite gone their separate ways, but the latter's chart looks much more bullish. May Silver came close to triggering a 'mechanical' short last week when it rallied to just shy of the green line (x=33.534; the stop-loss would be at 34.57). Regardless of whether it gets there, the burden of proof will be on bulls to sustain altitude. Returning to the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2=32.481) would almost surely grease the skids down to d=30.455. _____ UPDATE (Mar 12, 4:53 p.m.): Silver has taken a big leap this week, but let's hold the bubbly until such time as it pushes above 34.085. That's equal to an external peak recorded on Feb 20 whose breach would generate a fresh impulse leg of daily-chart degree.  In the meantime, assuming today's 33.815 high is not exceeded first, you could buy a pullback to 33.230 with stop-loss as tight as six cents.  _______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 7:49 a.m. EDT): A Hidden Pivot at 35.565 is the next logical rally target in my sequence, although a bigger picture yields 36.605 as a possibility. If I stretch all the way back to the 2008 low, I could see 42.705, or even 53.06. But no higher. These numbers will not be accurate to the penny because my coordinates come from 'blended' composite charts.

GDXJ looks all but certain to achieve the 54.92 target shown in the chart. The gap opening through p=48.39 on January 30 was an encouraging sign, and the more recent dip below the red line (p=48.39) was also impressive. since it triggered a so-far profitable buy there. We usually initiate 'mechanical' trades at the green line, but when the trend looks especially robust, there's a risk of missing the opportunity by not stepping up to the next level. ______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 8:11 a.m. EDT): This week's bold leap to a so-far high at 54.72 has left little doubt that GDXJ will not only reach my target, it will go on to achieve the next, an ambitious Hidden Pivot at  57.17 shown in this chart. Although Comex gold and silver futures showed timidity at times in 2025, this ETF for gold exploration companies has confidently led the way up. With mining stocks finally on the move, the health and longevity of the bull market in bullion seems assured for yet more months, if not years.

TLT has broken out with a stab on Friday that not only penetrated a major midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 92.04, it also closed above it. If the uptrend continues for another day or two, it will affirm the likelihood of more upward progress toward p2=95.62, the 'secondary pivot'.  I was skeptical about the strength of the trend earlier because discrete thrusts were not exceeding 'external' peaks on the daily chart. But the uptrend's resilience has been affirmed by a corresponding move lower last week (see my TNX 'tout' below)  in 10-year yields beneath a crucial support at 4.24%. ______ UPDATE (Mar 7):  The breakout was short-lived, but because it generated a true impulse leg by exceeding two prior peaks, one of them internal, the other external, bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt. If another strong leg is coming, this retracement should find traction at either 89.47, a few ticks beneath last week's low, or at  88.08, my worst-case, smackdown low.  Here's a chart to orient you. 

Spartacus' post in the chat room Saturday morning concerned his perception that sellers have not shown much follow-through whenever they appeared to have bulls on the run.  The monthly chart shown in the thumbnail inset would appear to corroborate his observation, although not decisively. Although two consecutive bars have penetrated an obvious midpoint Hidden Pivot support, bears failed to close either bar beneath the red line. The futures remain on a 'mechanical'-short signal nonetheless, but pessimists will likely have grown impatient by now with the so-far non-result. In a smaller time frame, traders might have gotten long at the redline, and they, too, would be at least somewhat depleted by the failure of the March contract to achieve a new record high.  The jury is still out, then, but I would expect a drop to d=5555.00 after we've seen a monthly close beneath p=5866.88, if we do. I would also be an aggressive buyer at that price, if only to leverage a fleeting, corrective bounce.  More immediately, despite Friday's vicious short-squeeze in the final hour, the futures remain on a mechanical'-short signal from 5969.25, stop 6024.00. _______ UPDATE (Feb 4, 11:41 a.m. EST): How refreshing! The buy-the-dips bozos are finally getting their comeuppance.  Today's avalanche crushed p=5866.88 (see above) so badly that it won't take a monthly close beneath it to ensure that d=5555.00 is achieved. More immediately, the futures will have an opportunity to turn up from 5710.94, the pattern's 'secondary' Hidden Pivot support. We'll make that our minimum downside target for the near term.  Here's the chart.