With Silver in the throes of a correction about to enter its fourth week, my immediate outlook is cautiously bullish. The December contract has already triggered the bottom-fishing trade advised in December Gold (see above), and made a so-far low at 30.490 that came within 7 cents of stopping out the trade. Rather than tying the two vehicles together, however, we'll adopt a different perspective that implies Silver will fall to the 29.495 target shown in the inset before it can turn around. A decisive breach would imply more slippage to as low as 28.455, a number given earlier as my worst-case correction target.
The 46.71 pivot that served as my worst-case correction target now looks likely to be achieved, since this vehicle had little difficulty taking out a related Hidden Pivot support at 48.93. Earlier, I'd suggested bottom-fishing there, and although the trade still looks enticing, it won't be a piece of cake, since the pivot coincides precisely with a low recorded on October 9 that is likely to attract a crowd. Accordingly I'll suggest using a trigger interval of 73 cents to get long off whatever low occurs. You can reduce that to 8 cents if you took the Advanced Tactics course and know how to calculate the voodoo number at 47.19 and know how the trade works.
Last week's series of gap-up rallies may have seemed impressive, but the move should be regarded as a dead-cat bounce until it starts exceeding 'external' peaks such as the ones shown in the chart. So far, it has exceeded no such peaks, even on the lowly hour chart. This means the rally is not even faintly impulsive. If you want a wake-up call to tell you when the uptrend becomes significant, set a screen alert at 102.99. That's a single tick above the first 'external' peak buyers will encounter on the weekly chart. It was recorded in July 2023 and is almost unnoticeable, but it is technically significant. Alternatively, if TLT relapses below 88.42, look for more downside to at least 81.80 and a worst-case low at 75.19.
Bitcoin is still on a buy signal from 67,379, although the pullback I was looking for to reload has mutated into a lunatic-powered bender. Is Trump more bullish for cryptocurrencies than Harris would have been? Probably not. It's more a case of everything being bullish for bitcoin at the moment. The chart says nothing can prevent it from achieving the 84,634 target shown. Beyond it lies a roundest-of-all-numbers benchmark at $100,000 that every crypto crazy has dreamed about for years, even after prices collapsed in 2022 from a then-record 68,964 to 15,484. Enjoy the show and use my bullish targets to book profits on the way up (and to get short sometimes). However, no matter how high it goes, don't lose sight of the fact that bitcoin has no real value other than to speculators.
Comex Gold hasn't fully corrected to a D/d target in nearly two years, so we'll be watching closely to see whether it does so this time. That would require more downside to d=2525.80 of the rABC pattern shown, equating to a 10% correction off the recent top. (It was precisely foreseen here back in September with the futures trading $300 lower). A 10% retracement would not be unusual for the steep, prolonged run-up bullion has enjoyed since September 2023. And here's some potentially good news: there is a small (i.e., 25%) chance today's low at 2660.70 will be as bad as it gets, since that's a hair from a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 2663.80 shown in the chart. I doubt bulls will get off that easy, however, and expect the selloff to continue down to at least the secondary pivot (p2) at 2594.80. As always, a decisive penetration of a Hidden Pivot on first contact would imply more slippage to the next, in this case to d=2525.80. An easy penetration of that target would be unwelcome news, since it could spell the end of the bull market begun in 1999 from around $240.
We began last week with an ambitious bull-market target at 6102, but heavy selling on Thursday nearly negated the bullish pattern from which that Hidden Pivot was derived. It is still theoretical viable, but I doubt it will survive. That would imply a trend failure at a midpoint of daily-chart degree [p=5913), a usually reliable indicator of an important trend change. Now, if minor 'D' corrective targets start giving way easily, we would have reason to infer the long-term bull cycle begun in March 2020 is over. I will be tracking this closely, so keep your email 'Notifications' switched on and stay close to the chat room if you want to stay apprised in real time. ______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 6:25 p.m.): There are numerous ABCD patterns projecting significantly higher, but here's one I especially like that all but guarantees minimum upside to 6084.00. This Hidden Pivot resistance lies 122 points above, a 2% move. This assumes that another promising target at 5961.75 discussed in the chat room gets swept away before dawn by Trump fever, as appears likely. The futures are head-butting this obscure 'hidden' resistance in after-hours trading. Short the higher target using as tight a stop-loss as you can craft, preferably with a small-degree rABC trigger (aka 'camouflage'), but your trading bias should be bullish until the futures get there. _______ UPDATE (Nov 8, 12:04 p.m.): The futures are now bound for at least 6200.25. That’s 178 points, or 3%, above the current 6022. My high confidence in this target is based on the way the Trump waft has impaled the 5962.25 ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance’ (p) shown in this chart. Price action at ‘p’ is a reliable and accurate indicator of trend strength. Please note as well that a sharp pullback to the green line (x=5843.25), however
The large gap opened by last Thursday's selloff left the stock well below ponderous supply. Mere bullish buying cannot possibly penetrate it, only a short squeeze powered by a headline that at the moment lies beyond imagining. The deficit will have to be recouped relatively quickly -- within the next 7-10 days, say -- or it will grow even more challenging psychologically. DaBoyz are certain to attempt a last-ditch distribution, which may require taking the stock even lower first to dry up selling. This is a dangerous game, even for the sleazy predators who make their living manipulating this stock, and we'll probably see them attempt the obligatory short squeeze in the days following the election. Trump looks like a lock-up to win, but if his victory gets tied up in the courts, or worse, the squeeze won't work. From a technical standpoint, the stock is on a 'mechanical' buy signal -- the second in two months -- but I am not recommending that you trade it. _______ UPDATE (Nov 8, 12:28 p.m.): The stock has turned so wishy-washy that the lowly H&S pattern I mentioned earlier has my attention, sort of. If MSFT pops, I'd expect a top near 455, implying it is not going to new record highs. A selloff would still need to crack 385.58 to activate the H&S, and the longer MSFT screws the pooch by going sideways, the less likely this will become.
Several subscribers identified the 88.41 downside target of the reverse pattern shown. It sits in a messy voodoo zone, and that's why it will be usable despite its apparent popularity. Bottom-fishing should be done with a reverse-pattern trigger on the weekly chart, where a= 96.47 (August 30). This trade will make you money regardless of whether TLT bottoms at 88.41. It is an 'Eff you, Mr Market' trade, recommended to Pivoteers who are familiar with 'camouflage' set-ups. More immediately, the downside should be exploited as well, since the decisive penetration of p=95.03 implies TLT is very likely to achieve d=88.41.
The futures have sold off $60 so far after coming within a hair of a 2803.40 target I'd been drum-rolling since September. The yellow flag is out, but there is still a higher target outstanding at 2940.10 that should be held in mind, even if the correction continues for another $250. However unlikely, that would bring the December contract down to the green line, triggering a 'mechanical' buy that would provide juicy odds for bottom-fishing. More immediately, the first chance this vehicle will have to regain traction is at 2711.30, my minimum downside objective for the near term (daily chart, a= 2708.70 on 9-26). If that Hidden Pivot support fails, look for the retracement to come into the thicket of October's consolidation zone, between 2640 and 2690. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 7:15 p.m. ET): Comex Gold hasn't fully corrected to a D (conventional) or d (reverse-pattern) target in nearly two years, so we'll be watching closely to see whether it does so this time. That would require more downside to d=2525,80 of the rABC pattern shown, equating to a 10% correction off the recent top. (It was precisely predicted here back in September with the futures trading $300 lower). A 10% retracement would not be unusual to correct the steep, prolonged run-up bullion has enjoyed since September 2023. There is also a small possibility that today's low at 2759.50 will be as bad as it gets, since that is just slightly below the 2663.80 Hidden Pivot midpoint support shown in the chart. I doubt bulls will get off that easy, however, and expect the selloff to continue down to at least the secondary pivot (p2=2594.80). As always, a decisive penetration of that Hidden Pivot on first contact would imply more slippage to the next, in this case d=2525.80. An easy
Last week's wrenching slippage brought GDXJ down to within 18 cents of the 50.55 'd' target of a reverse pattern on the daily chart that was displayed here previously. I've graduated to a bigger bearish pattern that targets 46.71, but the breach on Thursday of that pattern's 51.15 midpoint Hidden Pivot implies the correction will come down to at least p2=48.93. It could fall a further 2.22 to d=46.71, as noted above, if the 'secondary' support (i.e. 48.93) gives way easily. You can bottom-fish either Hidden Pivot with as tight a trigger interval as you can identify on charts of 5-minute degree or less.
