Rick’s Picks

The big pattern shown in the inset is too ambitious to frame the so-far timid gyrations that have lifted T-Bonds from their bear-market low. However, I have used it anyway because lesser charts magnify TLT's indecisiveness even more. Regardless, the gyrations have triggered a theoretical 'buy' signal that will require a follow-through to at least p=116.27 for validation, TLT is tradable in the meantime, but only by way of short-term signals on the intraday charts. A breach of c=82.42 would be discouraging news for the few bond bulls who have bucked the tide, although not necessarily for those who have been waiting for a washout to load up the truck.

DXY's sharp poke on Friday through p=107.55, the midpoint Hidden Pivot, implies the rally is very likely to reach the pattern's 108.98 target.  This symbol is not optionable, but you can trade the futures contract by interpolating my targets.  It is encouraging to see bullion strengthen with the dollar rampaging higher.  Its potential on DXY's long-term chart is to 119.37, or 124.82 if any higher (monthly chart, A= 89.54 on 5/31/21). A move of that magnitude would put enormous strain on all who owe dollars, and a ruinous deflation would likely be the result. This would occur irrespective of the level of nominal interest rates, since it is the real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) burden of debt that matters, not the marquee number.

Since it has become difficult even to imagine a prolonged downturn, I'm being extra cautious with this week's projection. It points most immediately to a potentially tradable top at 6007.50. This reverse-pattern Hidden Pivot resistance is well located, and the pattern is not too obvious; that's why odds for shorting there are attractive. However, any progress above the resistance, especially if easily achieved, would imply more upside to 6019.50, the midpoint pivot of a larger, conventional pattern; or even to D=6101.75. There is one more trade possibility to recommend, a 'mechanical' buy if the futures fall straightaway to the red line (p=5931.25). The stop-loss would be at 5905.75, but you'd want to use a 'camo' trigger to reduce entry risk by as much as 95%.

I've always treated MSFT as an infallible bellwether. My narrow, if not to say obsessive, focus has served us well, since MSFT has stayed consistently a step ahead of the broad averages, and even ahead of other stocks in the lunatic sector (i.e., the atrociously misnamed Magnificent Seven). But the long bull market has not conditioned us to think that when MSFT acts like crap for an entire year, as it has, that it is signaling a possible end to the bull market. This I will infer, however, implying that the failure to produce an easy 'mechanical' winner after falling to the green line on November 18 is further evidence of a waning bull.  This observation would be strengthened by a dip below C=405.57 without having first achieved D=435.90. The target and pattern will remain viable as long as 405.57 is not breached.

Last week's powerful surge made the futures an easy bet to reach the 2724.40 target we used to stay confidently abreast of the trend. The target, a reverse pattern Hidden Pivot resistance, is shortable, preferably if you know how to set up a small-pattern (i.e., 'camouflage') entry trigger. If the rally easily exceeds d=2724.40, use 2769.00 as a minimum upside objective, and expect it to work precisely. It is calculated by sliding 'a' down to the 2580.80 low recorded on September 18. That is what I refer to as a 'locked' point 'a', since there are no lower lows to be found that would still yield a reverse pattern. _______ UPDATE (Nov 25, 1:42 p.m.): Something has changed, since nasty old Mr Slammy has been showing up too frequently in the last month. Today's gratuitous pounding triggered a 'mechanical' buy at the red line (p=2656.10) that we will shun because of gold's punk behavior of late.  The trade is holding so far, since the intraday low at 2617.90 is $1.30 above the textbook stop-loss.  However, I'll recommend bottom-fishing only at the green line (x=2598.80), provided you understand the trade and can manage entry risk tightly. Also, don't expect the bounce to reach the D target at 2770.7. This one should be played for a one-level gain, from x to p, since it's possible an important top was seen with October 30's print at 2801.8, inches from a key target I'd billboarded months earlier.

The weekly chart makes a compelling case for more slippage to the 28.455 target we've been using as a minimum downside projection. The initial penetration of p=31.763 was decisive, and the subsequent selloff exceeded p2=30.109. This implies that we should short x=33.416 'mechanically' if a rally reaches it. There would be $5 potential in any subsequent drop, one of the juiciest trades we've seen in a long while. Profit aside, my point is that even a strong rally right now should be viewed with caution, if not outright skepticism. If you want to get long in the meantime, I'd suggest using the d target of a reverse pattern on the 60-minute chart or less.

Last week's prediction missed the turn, even if expectations for physical gold were more bullish. The week began with a manic leap past  x=46.97, which made more upside to at least p=49.17 an odds-on bet. Don't expect an easy move through this midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, though, since both the pattern and the location of p will make it hard as rock. It will take a two-day close above p, or an intraday move surpassing it by perhaps 50 cents, to ensure further progress toward p2=51.38, or even d=53.58.  If and when p has been decisively exceeded, a swoon to x=46.97, however unlikely, would be a back-up-the-truck spot to get long 'mechanically'.

Crude's rallies have failed so reliably at p that I've stretched the pattern a bit to provide some upside targets if it should break loose this time. More likely is that the January contract will hit p, noodle around for a few days, then resumes the weakness that has characterized this commodity since July. A retracement to the green line would not necessarily beckon a 'mechanical' buy. If this vehicle mildly surprises by continuing higher, I would still expect price action over the next few months to fall within the range $68-$75.  Of course, that is barring a geopolitical shock that would push quotes to $80 or higher. ______  UPDATE (Nov 29): The futures performed even worse last week than my dismal forecast had anticipated: first by failing by 46 cents to reach the red line (p=71.97), and then by staying aloft for barely more than a day at the top of the rally. Let's embrace the good news: 1) the sleazeballs who rig the oil markets had little buoyancy to work with, and 2) gas prices will be coming from lower lows the next time the bad guys goose quotes on the flimsiest pretext. ______ UPDATE (Dec 7): Is yet another test of support coming at 66.32, the point 'C' low of the faintly bullish pattern shown in the inset? It sure looks that way, and it's hard to get interested, never mind excited. Zzzzzzzzzzz.

It's tempting to think in round numbers like the pundits who shill this hoax, but a mere $100,000 is not where bitcoin is going next.  From a Hidden Pivot perspective, it appears nearly certain to achieve the 107,670 target shown in the chart, or 119,253 if any higher. The same bozos like to throw out absurdities like $500,000, or $1 million, but why stop there? The true believers who have stayed with bitcoin since it changed hands for a dime a copy (Oh yes, it did!) don't have limits, so let's not rain on their parade. As for the rest of us, I'd suggest taking these Hidden Pivot targets seriously because nothing goes up forever and because, in my estimation, one or the other Hidden Pivot resistance has an excellent chance of capping the literally insane rally that has made bitcoin the speculative sensation of the digital era.