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All’s Well in…Nigeria?

– Posted in: Links Rick's Picks

From our far-flung correspondent and paid-up subscriber Jonathan Auerbach, of Auerbach Grayson, a suprisingly upbeat dispatch from, of all places, Nigeria:  Former Reagan Secretary of State Alexander Haig (who died 4 days ago) first uttered these prematurely fateful words after Reagan was shot in 1981, Yesterday in a reprise the Nigerian Senate took a similar step by amending their Constitution and requiring that the president among other elected officials could essentially only stay in bed for 14 days before the legislature could name a deputy to act for them. Ok, President Yar'Adua better take a stroll soon. The point...for all the dire speculation on a paralytic government, procedurally things are working well in Nigeria. The market has been mixed in reasonable volume lately and we continue to be long term very positive. The index is 33% of its all time high with a sub 10x PE and the banks at book and around 6x PE should be accumulated. We visit the Axis of Evil...remember that Bushism? My partner David Grayson is in Damascus this morning meeting local brokers, the Ministry of Finance, CB etc as we prepare for an expected change in Syria's report card. Reminds me of my days in the Ward School outside Boston when Mrs Wilson told my parents that I was finally behaving myself. We expect our President will soon welcome Syria back into the classroom and their newly reestablished stock market will be open. As with Iraq, we expect and will facilitate the participation for Frontier players. We understand that FOX Business News will cover parts of David's visit and if you want to see us in action I believe you should tune in at 1300 EST on Monday.

Amazing Archive of Old-Time Newsreels

– Posted in: Links Rick's Picks

Here is a site that I'm sure you will find fascinating. It is the British-Pathe web site, where you can see an amazing collection of news reels from way back, when there was no TV, just radio and paper. To see what was going on in the world on screen, you had to go to watch a movie in a theater, and these "news" were shown before the main feature. Remember these days? Well, now it's all at your finger tips, and since you probably don't remember much of it, here is an unending source of entertainment to catch up and feed your inner history buff. Click here  to access this remarkable archive.

Gold and Geopolitical Tensions

– Posted in: Links Rick's Picks

In the good old days, the price of gold could always be counted on to reflect the ebb and flow of geopolitical tensions. Nowadays, though, you wonder whether it would take a mushroom cloud over the Middle East, or the sinking of a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, to get a rise out of bullion.  This is the topic of my latest interview with Al Korelin at the Korelin report. Click here   to access it.

Climate Science Tantrums

– Posted in: Links Rick's Picks

George Will draws a bead on climate "science" in a recent essay that you can access by clicking here.  Here's an excerpt: "The global warming industry, like Alexander in the famous children's story, is having a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day. Actually, a bad three months, which began Nov. 19 with the publication of e-mails  indicating attempts by scientists to massage data and suppress dissent in order to strengthen "evidence" of global warming."

Some U.S. States in Worse Shape than PIIGS

– Posted in: Links Rick's Picks

Think Europe's PIGS -- Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece an Spain -- are in trouble?  Seven U.S. states appear to be heading for troubles that are even worse. Click here   for the full story at SeekingAlpha.com.  Here's an excerpt:  "The seven states to make my list are California, Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, and New Jersey. Each has a population above 8 million people. Each has had to borrow more than a billion dollars, so far, to pay claims out of their now bankrupt unemployment insurance fund. Also, each state currently registers broad, underemployment above 15% as indicated by the U-6 measure for the States. And finally, each state is a large net importer of either oil, natural gas, electricity, or all three of these energy sources."

‘Trinity’ Turns Bearish

– Posted in: Links Rick's Picks

My friend Larry Amernick's "Trinity Indicator" has just turned bearish on stocks:   "The Fed’s announcement comes at an important technical juncture," writes Larry. "The recent bounce from the 9% correction sent the market into overbought territory and fired off a short-term sell signal from the “Trinity Indicator.”  This indicator combines signals from my market breadth Oscillator, option sentiment indicator, and Rydex sentiment indicator." If you'd like to sample his fortnightly newsletter, The Amernick Report, and find out how far Larry expects stocks to fall, e-mail him at Amernick@comcast.net  and tell him I sent you.

Are bond vigilantes about to check-mate the Fed?

– Posted in: Links Rick's Picks

Here's an interesting note from our friend Bob Hoye, who thinks the Fed's ability to depreciate the dollar is about to be curtailed by global "bond vigilantes" : "Too many generations of demented central bankers have fostered an unintended growth industry – a sector that gets its revenues from an endless drumbeat that the dollar will be driven to zero in another version of a Weimar inflation. "Our view on this ghastly prospect has always been that in the 1920s Germany had an almost negligible credit market and had to use a real printing press to deliberately debase the mark. The US is the senior credit market and, quite simply, global "Bond Vigilantes" are getting close to shutting down the abilities of the Fed to depreciate the dollar. "The Fed needs speculators in soaring asset prices to expand its own portion of the global credit market. Later in the year, most asset classes could be falling in price, which will curb, if not prevent, the Fed's nihilistic compulsions. "Instead of market forces repudiating the dollar, financial history will likely repudiate the financial adventurers who have been "managing" interest rates and the dollar. In the meantime, the gold sector is expected to record outstanding performance through this year."