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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOzR3UAyXao

For years, almost nobody paid attention to the sky-is-falling alarms of Edward Hugh, a gregarious British blogger and self-taught economist who repeatedly predicted that the euro zone could not survive. via Blog Prophet of Euro Zone Doom - NYTimes.com.

Okay, I went overboard trying to get your attention with the headline.  However, I don't think the gravity of Iran's threat against Israel can be underestimated.  Iran and Turkey appear ready to join forces militarily to challenge Israel's blockade, and very soon.  Israel will not back down from this confrontation, and I cannot imagine that Hillary Clinton or the U.N. Security Council will be able to derail it.  The situation seems quite serious, really, notwithstanding the fact that the breathtaking imbeciles who buy U.S. stocks higher on most days are at it again today, ignoring not only the possibility of a shootout between Israel and its two most powerful enemies (one of them a NATO country!), but the possibility that the Gulf oil spill is going to kill the Atlantic Ocean.  Click here to read more on Ahmadinejad's brazen threat.

From the never-less-than-fascinating Spengler, here's a brilliant and unconventional analysis of  Turkey and how it perceives itself in a post-American (and post-Attaturkian) world.  Along the way, he notes that Turkish intelligence duped Israel into botching the flotilla raid. Click here  to read this remarkable essay.

Our friend Phil Calderone sent us a note recently asserting that Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL) and Central Fund (AMEX: CEF) were as close to a "sure thing" as any bullion plays he's seen in years. From a Hidden Pivot perspective, CEF became a speculative "buy" this morning, although Hecla, trading for 5.24 at this moment, would need t hit 5.37 to create an equally buyable, bullish impulse leg on its hourly chart.  Here's Phil with a full explanation that he sent me on May 20 -- and caveat emptor! “It has often been said, that in life, there are ONLY two sure things. Death &Taxes! When it comes to betting on sports or speculating on stocks, real estate or even people, there is no such thing as a sure thing. Given that proviso, I have identified a number of very profitable stock picks over more than 40 years of studying the markets. I believe that a situation currently presents itself as one of the best risk reward opportunities in a number of years. Anyone who knows me is familiar with my ongoing recommendation, especially since 2001, of gold and silver as a protector and grower of wealth. My core recommendation since that year, when I first came across and researched Central Fund of Canada, CEF, started with buy recommendations @3.16. I have continuously recommended it multiple times at various prices since and continue to believe that money should be held in shares of CEF, instead of bank accounts, bonds, real estate, stocks etc. that will otherwise be ravaged by the continuing decline of the dollar. The “close as it gets to a sure thing” trade is a stock, that has the usual risks of any stock investment. However, given the company fundamentals, my stock chart analysis, and the fact that Silver is the most undervalued

My friend Stan Kreis, a commercial real estate developer from Boulder, has written insightfully on the flotilla episode. For a pro-Israel perspective that goes sharply against mainstream coverage, click here.

A wise friend who has Bob Farrell's Rules posted on his wall has written insightfully about Rule #8:  "Bear markets have three states:  sharp down, reflexive rebound and drawn-out fundamental downtrend."  Here are his comments: "While pondering how not to blow it by failing to cover my shorts at some reasonable level now that we are in the 'C' Wave of this Secular Bear Market, several light bulbs went on. I remember back in October 1987, we all went to a ballroom at the Hilton (there was no internet back then) to tune in to a Merrill Lynch closed circuit presentation for AEs and their clients to express the Merrill Lynch view after the Crash. The Merrill Lynch View back then was pretty much the Bob Farrell View and Bob was unequivocal about the 1987 Crash being completely different from the 1929 Crash. Unlike every other Wall Street Analyst, Bob correctly identified the Bull Market that began in 1982 as young and the Crash as a market event, not a forecast for Depression. That reminded me not to fight the last war. If the stock market crashes now, it will not be a market event so much as a fundamental event, algorithmic trading not withstanding. That is because we are in the early stages of a secular credit collapse and the fundamental, economic part of the crisis lies ahead. I was reminded of a quote that Art Zeikel included in "On Thinking". The quote was from Dick Stoken: " Because human psychology is slow to change, a broad economic move usually occurs in three stages. The first stage begins when some unexpected event shatters an overdone psychological environment (like the bursting of the housing bubble). Yet, while some people respond immediately to this new lesson, most people, as they find it outside their past experience, do not

The biggest slump in commodities since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed is undermining Wall Street forecasts for accelerating economic growth and higher prices for everything from copper to crude oil. via Commodities’ Biggest Drop Since Lehman Bear Signal (Update2) - Bloomberg.com.

European Central Bank’s Report Issues Warning - NYTimes.com.