Current Touts

This week's chart is so fraught with significance that merely talking about it could create a problem for us, albeit a metaphysical one. First, I will refrain from typing the price associated with the red line, since that would almost surely queer the likelihood it will work as intended. It will work nonetheless, to the extent it tells us with high reliability whether Microsoft is on its way into the stratosphere. This information will be invaluable, since the stock remains the most dependable bellwether we have for the bull market. Is MSFT going to the 556.06 target, or will it instead get stopped dead at the midpoint Hidden Pivot? We shall see. I am quite sure, though, that I have chosen the correct pattern, for one reason: there are no alternatives -- i.e., two of the three coordinates are 'locked', and the third is a glow-in-the-dark choice, if not absolute. I doubt that hundreds of subscribers can keep a secret, but that's what I will ask. Please don't discuss this chart outside of the chat room or disseminate it to outsiders.  For trading purposes, your bias should be bullish at least until the red line is reached.

The 7208.75 rally target has excellent potential as a place to get short, although we shouldn't expect it to contain the stampede. With a conceivably perpetual cease-fire in the offing, this would seem to be the kind of uncertainty Wall Street can live with. Trump might wind up achieving none of his key objectives in the war, but that hardly matters to investors stoked by greed from the stock market's robust performance amid an ostensible global crisis. The nearest significant obstacle is a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 7230.25, but if the futures shred it, the previously mentioned 8107.25 target will be in play.

Rates on the Ten Year have receded from a high-water mark two weeks ago of 4.48%, a threshold that came close to throttling mortgage activity with a move above 7%, as well as all other forms of debt financing. It's difficult to predict at the moment how much more relief borrowers will get, but T-Notes seem likely to fall to at least 4.18% from a current 4.32%. If they touch that Hidden Pivot, any bounce would presumably be merely corrective, since it would follow the creation of a bearish impulse leg via a penetration of March 17's important, 41.89 low. ______ UPDATE (April 24): Last week's steep ascent created a fresh impulse leg on the daily chart. The 4.18% downside target has receded, but it remains theoretically viable. We'll need to monitor two Hidden Pivot levels closely to see whether bulls are about to resume their advance. They lie at 42.91 and 42.50, the respective midpoint and secondary supports of a downtrending rABC begun from March 13's 43.51 high. If interest rates are about to rise anew, watch for this vehicle to bounce from 42.91 and continue higher.

I am treating Friday's low at 80.56 as potentially important, since the pattern from which it is derived took more than five weeks to play out. Only two coordinates are shown for proprietary reasons, but the other two are easy enough to identify if you care. Notice that the low missed the actual target by 85 cents. I suspect this was due to front-running, which if true would mean the clowns and algos have gotten better at playing our game. That's okay, though, since we can keep a step ahead of them simply by using reverse-pattern triggers as detailed in the Hidden Pivot Course. Most immediately, expect more upside to at least 89.04, a minor 'd' target.  If it is easily exceeded, especially on first contact, that would suggest the recent low is likely to hold for a while and that quotes are headed back toward $100/barrel or higher.

The 7230.25 midpoint resistance shown is my minimum upside objective for the near term. It will pose a crucial test for bulls, since a decisive penetration, especially on first contact, would imply that the rally is likely to continue. The immediate objective thereupon would be p2=7668.75, but as always, a swift move through it would clear a path to as high as 8107.25, the D target.  The 7230.25 pivot is a must-short, provided you're adept at using 'camo' triggers to curtail entry risk. The technique is described in the Hidden Pivot Course I've made available for free to all old subscribers and to new ones who have signed up for a full year.

Try as they might, the slimeballs charged with goosing this cinder block whenever it needs a cash-free boost have succeeded only in recouping about a third of bear-market losses sustained since last autumn's top near 550.  To be sure, the rigged, gap-up openings that accounted for nearly all of last week's 60-point (15%) gain generated a powerful impulse leg on the daily chart, and it must be respected. But we'll make bulls earn our trust every step of the way, and that means with a leap either Monday or Tuesday that surpasses the gap resistance at 442.50 created in January on the way down. I will continue to track the stock closely, since, despite its ugly slide over the last six months, the company remains the most reliable bellwether for gauging the health of the stock market.

Although the 5144.00 rally target shown remains a secure minimum upside objective, waiting for it to be achieved has been agonizing. That's because, as we know, gold's institutional sponsors could wipe out ten weeks' worth of ratcheting, tedious gains with just one of those sleazy hit-jobs to which we'd grown accustomed during the bull market's incipient stage. If the swoon comes next week, I would not recommend bottom-fishing with a 'mechanical' bid at the green line, since the trade has an elevated probability of getting stopped out. This opportunity, if it comes, will be via a 'green-line' buy only, assuming the futures get socked with a bout of weakness by those most intent on adding to their hoard at fire-sale prices. That's how the game works.

Silver has made better headway than Gold toward the nearest important rally objective, in this case 93.850. However, the move has still been a drain on our patience and more than a little stressful since, like gold, the futures will always be subject to one of those nasty downdrafts that inflicts all bull markets during lengthy consolidations. The mildly good news from last week is that buyers popped this vehicle through an 'external' peak at 82.760 recorded in mid-March on the way down. The move was impulsive and implies that the next leg higher will achieve the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 85.690.

I won't go into the somewhat subjective reasons, but the inset chart is unconvincing regarding whether crude is headed significantly higher, possibly reaching the 134.08 target shown. I had assumed this was possible, but my job is to determine whether it is likely. To better judge the odds, I'm going to use a downtrending, conventional ABC that begins with the 117.63 peak recorded last Tuesday. It projects a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 89.41 and a D target at 76.12.  Since these Hidden Pivots align closely with the green and red lines in the chart, we'll use them alongside the specific numbers provided in this tout to get an accurate read on trend strength, both dominant and corrective.  The futures have already signaled a drop to p=89.41, but a decisive overshoot would lend a little weight to the not-crazy-bullish case.  If they continue to fall, exceeding D=76.12, that will significantly diminish the chance we'll see new highs above 117.63.  For the record, a fall to the green line (x=90.25) would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, with a stop at 75.63. I am recommending the trade only to ace Pivoteers, however.