The small poke through our longstanding Hidden Pivot target at 3040.90 implies prices will continue higher, notwithstanding occasional shakedowns by the sleazeball who control bullion markets. Although I recently billboarded an ambitious target at 3533 to lift your imagination, a more immediate prospect is 3198.70, the 'D' target of a smaller pattern. A pullback to 2932.80 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy signal, but the 2844.00 stop-loss is unacceptably large. Use a 'camouflage' trigger for this one, meaning an entry set-up crafted from 15-minute charts or lower once 2932.80 has been touched.
The slight dip beneath the 54.84 midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown implies more retracement is needed to set up the next big push to a presumptive 60.62. The first place you could look for a turn is 54.44, a minor support given here last week. Beneath it lies prospective support at p2=53.44, the 'secondary' pivot; or a worst-case 52.03. There are two additional bull-market targets that I mentioned here earlier. They lie, respectively, at 72.73 and 111.59.
Bitcoin has gone nowhere since I predicted a fall to at least 68,233, or possibly 54,848. I'm going to substitute a less dramatic scenario, since I expect this symbol to rally along with the broad averages in the weeks ahead. Accordingly, you can use the 80,212 midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart as a worst-case downside target for the new week. It can be bottom-fished aggressively with a stop-loss at 79,890.
There is little doubt GDXJ will soon achieve the 57.17 target shown. Is that all there is, some might ask. Not by a longshot. Here's a bigger picture that shows upside potential to as high as 72.73. More immediately, the 60.62 'secondary' pivot looks like a solid bet to get hit. A puzzle, though, is what could happen after 72.23, a number that would exhaust conventional targets. It turns out that a reverse pattern begun from 84.72 in Feb 2010 allows for upside to as high as 111.59 (!) The corresponding midpoint resistance lies at 64.23, and it roughly coincides with a peak at 65.95 recorded in August 2020, implying double resistance at that level. That is a good thing, since it will create a 'magnetic' challenge for bulls to overcome. _______ UPDATE (Mar 19, 10:04 a.m.): After topping yesterday less than 1% above my longstanding target at 57.17, GDXJ has come down hard, trading as low as 55.70 this morning. If you are looking to augment a long position, stake out a new one, or perhaps close out a covered write initiated near 57.17, you should do so at 54.44, my minimum downside target for this correction if a Hidden Pivot support at 54.84 gives way. Worst case would be 52.03, a ‘hidden’ support where you can back up the truck to replenish your inventory of shares (or naked-short puts if you trade aggressively). Here's a chart to help orient you.
Friday's 101-point thrust came within less than a point of fulfilling the 5649.50 target I'd flagged in the chat room an hour before the day began. I'd said it would take much more than that to produce a bear rally worthy of the name. How much more? Probably another 300 points before bears who have bet the 'don't' line would start feeling queasy. The sassy little pisher that capped the week didn't surpass a single distinctive peak. Still, that's how all memorable bear rallies begin, greeted with skepticism the moment they bolt from the gate. Let's see if short-covering bears have the energy to lift this brick above 3/12's 5675.00 peak as the new week begins. Expect this to happen earlier in the session if at all, since that is when the sleazeball who control the game have the most control over the order book. _______ UPDATE (Mar 17, 12:53 p.m. EDT): The June contract's timid rally this morning just missed taking out a peak at 5726.75 equivalent to the one given above for the March futures. It will do so shortly, however, and will then face a more challenging and less obvious resistance at exactly 5740.25. That is the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of this pattern, which allows a bear rally to as high as 5920.50, a back-up-the-truck number for getting short. You can try shorting 5740.25 as well, provided you can handle a 'camo' trigger on the lesser charts. Risk no more than 3.50 points on the initial stop-loss.
MSFT is the unwitting captive of the pattern shown, with immediate upside potential to 398.06. Judging from the ease with which short-covering bears bulldozed the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 387.49, they should have little trouble inadvertently boosting the stock to the target Monday or Tuesday. If they are still feeling their oats, the next logical price objective would be 414.57, the 'd' target of a larger reverse pattern. Its corresponding midpoint resistance lies at 395.74, so a precise stall there would validate the pattern and increase the odds of an equally precise, shortable top if and when 413.80 is reached.
Expect ten-year rates to continue ratcheting lower, at least to the 3.959% 'secondary pivot' shown in the chart. The breach of p=4.242% was not decisive, and rates have yet to close for two consecutive weekly bars below it. However, the initial downside penetration reached the 'sweet spot' between p and p2, implying that an uptick in rates to the green line (x=4.526%) would be a short sale. The chart is inconclusive about whether d=3.675% will be achieved, but an overshoot of p2 would shorten the odds. It is my maximum downside target, nonetheless.
Once again, we return to a familiar target at 3040.90 that has kept us on the right side of the trend since late 2024, when there were nagging doubts. I could have done with a little more consolidation before the April contract broke out of a fraught range last week, but I don't have much control over such things; I only try to see them coming. The daily chart suggests possible success bottom-fishing a moderate pullback to 2958.30 as the week begins. I put out a target last week at 3230 that came from a 'blended' monthly chart, but let's upgrade that to the 3533.90 target shown. A stall precisely at p=3037.70 would help validate the pattern. It would also set up a promising 'mechanical' buy on a pullback to x=2789.60 once the futures have reached the sweet spot between p and p2.
Comex Silver hasn't exactly shredded the midpoint resistance of the long-term pattern shown in the monthly composite chart. However, it has frolicked and danced there, suggesting that although bulls are in no great hurry to take the futures to as high as $53, they are determined to get there eventually. The target may not seem spectacular, and there are undoubtedly silver bulls hoping for a doubling of 2011's $50 top. That could still happen, but probably not before a lengthy and deep pullback from 53.06. First, let's allow bulls to turn the midpoint resistance into support with a patient consolidation above it. Use 36.605, or 37.305 if any higher, as short-term rally targets. Both should evince a tradable pullback.
Bitcoins's pullback from the record 108,388 achieved in late December has overshot a 'd' target at 83,603, implying it will grope lower for support from either of two Hidden Pivot supports associated with a larger reverse (rABC) pattern begun from a=69,000 in November 2021. The relevant levels lie, respectively, at 68,233, a p2 'secondary support' that should be used as a minimum downside objective for the time being; or d=54,848 if any lower.
