TLT has taken three big leaps since bottoming in mid-January, but only one of them exceeded an 'external' peak. Still more dispiriting is that the last sputtered out almost precisely at an upward correction target, well shy of an important 'external' high at 90.99 recorded on December 17. The rally appears to have been a garden-variety correction in an ongoing bear market, although we'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt until such time as the pullback starts exceeding prior lows. The rally corresponds to a drop in Ten Year interest rates that appears to have bottomed synchronously near a Hidden Pivot support at 4.43%. The downward move in rates began in mid-January from 4.81%.
Rates on the Ten-Year Note have fallen to 4.41% since peaking in mid-January at 4.81%. The low was slightly beneath my target at 4.43%, an overshoot that mildly implies rates will continue lower. However, Friday's bounce to 4.51% was significant enough to suggest the downtrend may have ended. I've given bulls the benefit of the don't in TLT, which is equivalent to saying interest-rate bears -- i.e., those expecting lower rates -- deserve the same benefit of the doubt. However, if this bounce should exceed the 4.60% peak from February 2, that would be a reason to infer that rates bottomed with the recent low.
Our favorite little wack-a-doodle spent the week out on the ledge, unable to decide whether to splatter the sidewalk or leap up into the old wazoo of impatient bears. Any forthcoming decision could be moot, since I've got an outstanding rally target at 116,807 that could pull Bitcoin out of a funk any time things start looking ugly. Even so, I've reversed the polarity of my recent outlook with a chart that favors a corrective slide to at least 91,119, or 87,293 if any lower. This is mildly speculative, since BTCUSD never even tested the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 94,946, much less penetrate it. If penetration happens decisively over the weekend or on Monday, consider the corrective scenario a done deal. Regardless, you could attempt to bottom-fish at the red line, provided you've got the 'camouflage' chops to cut the entry risk down to small change.
The week ended with the futures on a 'mechanical' sell signal that is showing a nice profit, but I doubt whether the downtrend will reach the 'D' target at 5864. This is the second such signal in two weeks, the first having produced a theoretical gain of as much as $4,000 per contract. The subsequent bounce made up the lost ground and then some, demonstrating that bulls are not about to roll over quietly when the occasional barrage of selling hits. Look for the current weakness to find at least temporary support, potentially tradable, at 6014.25 (60m, A=.6147.75 on 1/31). A decisive penetration of that Hidden Pivot support on first contact would imply further slippage to at least 5961.25. _______ UPDATE (Feb 10, 7:40 a.m. EST): The futures have taken a so-far 68-point bounce from within a single tick of the 6014.25 Hidden Pivot support I'd suggested using for bottom-fishing. A single contract purchased there when the futures began trading Sunday could have reaped a profit of as much as $3800.
This week's chart gives the S&PS room to make a somewhat higher high before their inevitable collapse. My recent forecasts have brimmed with confidence that the end is nigh, especially now that a multitrillion-dollar AI investment bubble must be unwound. Even so, the stakeholders are some of the biggest, most powerful financial entities in the world, so we shouldn't doubt their ability to squeeze stocks higher against all reason and logic, the better to distribute as much horrifically overpriced stocks to the rubes as they can. The chart shows a 6704 bull market target that lies 10% above. However, because of the balky, drawn-out move through p=5961 midpoint pivot, a follow-through to the target is hardly a done deal. That's why I am forecasting that p2=6332 will mark The Top. It's also possible the broad averages will make their final highs here, midway between p and p2, although that would be an unusual place for such a spectacular bull run to end. For now, though, we'll trade with a mildly bullish bias until minor, uptrending ABCD patterns start falling short. The most immediate rally target of consequence lies at 6301, 234 points above. In the meantime, you can buy a pullback to 6036.25 'mechanically' with a 5947 stop-loss. ________ UPDATE (Feb 3, 9:36 a.m. EST): The futures are unavoidably on their way down to exactly 5863.75, a Hidden Pivot obscure enough to work well for bottom-fishing. Your trading bias should be bearish at least until it gets there. Here's the chart.
The world's most important stock, supported by bombproof annual revenues approaching a quarter of a trillion dollars,+ has been trapped in a tedious range since July. Is it being distributed to widows and pensioners, or are the institutional geniuses who have held it forever simply marking time ahead of their next opportunity to mark it up? Whatever the case, it has been tightly controlled within a gently pitched channel that contains no breakouts or breakdowns. My gut feeling is that this is about to change with a gratuitous fall to 393.19, a voodoo number suited for aggressive bottom-fishing. I would suggest using a trigger interval no wider than 1.50 points, with the 'c' low planted within $1.00 or less of the voodoo.
There are two Hidden Pivot targets above: one at 116,807 that seems doable, and another at 144,586 that might seem a tad ambitious, even for a few Bitcoin hopheads and glue-sniffers over the age of 14. At the moment, however, it is on a 'mechanical' sell signal at 104,795 that could take it down to as low as 89,997 before this presumptive correction has run its course. The midpoint Hidden Pivot at 99,677 should be used as a minimum objective and a good place to cash out of half of any short positions initiated at the green line.
Last week's decisive breakout above the 2791.90 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown in the chart all but clinches a follow-through to at least p2=2905.30, and thence to an almost as likely D target at 3018.70. (The April equivalents are, respectively, 2927.40 and 3040.90.) A pullback in the meantime to the green line (x=2678, or 2700.30, basis April), however unlikely, would offer the juiciest 'mechanical' buying opportunity we've seen in a long while. More immediately, you should expect a potentially tradable stall at 2854.80 (2883, basis April), my minimum upside target for the near term. The usual imbeciles are attributing the breakout to Trump's tariff plans, whatever they might be, but also to a run on London bullion inventories by presumptive buyers in China and India, and to many other sovereign entities that evidently want to be prepared if this already-too-interesting world should turn still more interesting. There is as yet little evidence that the spike in demand for gold has fed into Bitcoin. True disbelievers in the latter's value and potential should consider betting the spread will widen, but don't expect Michael Saylor and his ilk to fade you till their heads cave in.
Silver's ascent last week was not as impressive as gold's, creating a minor divergence that seems likely to continue, at least for a short while. However, the March contract would trigger a mechanical buy if it falls to p=31.945 when trading resumes Sunday afternoon. Using a reverse-pattern trigger, risk no more than 1,50 cents on the entry, but be prepared for more slippage to d=30.970 if the trade fails. If this pullback exceeds 'd', it would imply silver will pull gold down rather than the other way around.
GDXJ's gap opening through a daunting midpoint resistance was not quite as impressive as Comex gold's simultaneous thrust, but it was persuasive nonetheless. The rally ran out of gas on Friday, but the way buyers handled p=48.39 suggests the pullback will not get very far before they are raring to go again. The earliest the turn could come would be from 47.57, the 'd' target of a=47.88 (1/24) on the daily chart. In any case, I'll reiterate targets that are theoretically in play, for the record: p2=51.65 and D=54.92.
