Current Touts

I've arbitrarily chosen to emphasize the bullish side of this chart, using a reversal pattern that projects to 5144.00. It assumes that June Gold is on a 'mechanical' buy signal that triggered last week with a dip below the red line (p=4363.30).  (It missed being stopped out by 4467 by $55.)  The somewhat bearish possibility starts with A=5474, the March 6 high. The corresponding midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 4244.8 would be a back-up-the-truck number for bargain-hunting bulls.

The bullish pattern shown projects to 93.99 and corresponds to the one accompanying the current Gold tout. A key difference is that Silver did not signal a 'mechanical' buy, or at least not one that would still be "live". That could actually be construed as a sign of strength, since the futures did not pull back far enough to touch the green line (x=69.744) where we initiate most of our 'mechanical' trades. If it does so this week, however, don't hesitate to buy there, albeit with a 'camo' trigger that would spare us the approximately $40,000 of entry risk associated with a textbook stop below 'c'.

The potentially important low I signaled a week ago caught the exact bottom of a powerful, $20 rally. It came within 11 cents of the 98.50 target for the June contract, then receded by nearly $6 to finish the week. Are bulls depleted? We may know soon, since, with moderate selling to start the new week, the retracement will test the 89.41 midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a reverse pattern on the daily chart (a= 96.93 on 4/13). It should hold if Crude is going to challenge the spike high at 104.34 recorded on March 9.  Otherwise, a decisive breach of p would open a path down to at least 80.43.  This analysis should prove as accurate as the one proffered last week, since the patterns on the chart are equally compelling.

The chart leaves little doubt that June Gold will achieve the 5144.00 target, a Hidden Pivot. If it takes as much time to get there as it did to complete the A-B impulse leg, this should happen within the next ten days or so. A pullback to the green is not inconceivable; it would add more time to the ascent but would also be a gift, since the 'mechanical' buy signal it would trigger would be of the highest quality.  Our main concern should be price action when the uptrend reaches 'D', since a decisive move past it would imply significantly higher prices lie ahead, starting with a test of January's all-time high at 5666.

Although silver's price action has been somewhat more subdued than gold's, I've adjusted the bullish pattern on the weekly chart to produce a rally target commensurate with gold's. A similarity you should be prepared to exploit is that a pullback to the green line would create a very attractive 'mechanical' buying opportunity. We would want to cash out of half the position on a one-level bounce back to p=77.530, since the price action on the chart suggests Silver will be more challenged by gravity to sprint toward d=93.850 once it has left the starting block at the green line.

We caught a favorable breeze after getting long last week at 121.17, the midpoint Hidden Pivot of the bullish reverse pattern shown. We seldom initiate 'mechanical' trades at the red line, but in doing so this time, we may have jumped the gun. The position feels a little precarious, so I'll suggest taking a profit on half when this symbol starts trading on Monday morning. Assuming GDXJ opens above our acquisition price, you should set a break-even stop-loss for the rest.  Odds are still in our favor, given the easy move through p on the way up, and also the fact that it has racked up four consecutive weekly closes above p since the red line was first touched. ______ UPDATE (Apr 27, 10:44): Exiting half of our long position at 122.86 on the opening yields a cost basis of 119.47 for what remains. Tie it to a 121.05 stop-loss for the time being.

This week's chart is so fraught with significance that merely talking about it could create a problem for us, albeit a metaphysical one. First, I will refrain from typing the price associated with the red line, since that would almost surely queer the likelihood it will work as intended. It will work nonetheless, to the extent it tells us with high reliability whether Microsoft is on its way into the stratosphere. This information will be invaluable, since the stock remains the most dependable bellwether we have for the bull market. Is MSFT going to the 556.06 target, or will it instead get stopped dead at the midpoint Hidden Pivot? We shall see. I am quite sure, though, that I have chosen the correct pattern, for one reason: there are no alternatives -- i.e., two of the three coordinates are 'locked', and the third is a glow-in-the-dark choice, if not absolute. I doubt that hundreds of subscribers can keep a secret, but that's what I will ask. Please don't discuss this chart outside of the chat room or disseminate it to outsiders.  For trading purposes, your bias should be bullish at least until the red line is reached.

The 7208.75 rally target has excellent potential as a place to get short, although we shouldn't expect it to contain the stampede. With a conceivably perpetual cease-fire in the offing, this would seem to be the kind of uncertainty Wall Street can live with. Trump might wind up achieving none of his key objectives in the war, but that hardly matters to investors stoked by greed from the stock market's robust performance amid an ostensible global crisis. The nearest significant obstacle is a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 7230.25, but if the futures shred it, the previously mentioned 8107.25 target will be in play.

Rates on the Ten Year have receded from a high-water mark two weeks ago of 4.48%, a threshold that came close to throttling mortgage activity with a move above 7%, as well as all other forms of debt financing. It's difficult to predict at the moment how much more relief borrowers will get, but T-Notes seem likely to fall to at least 4.18% from a current 4.32%. If they touch that Hidden Pivot, any bounce would presumably be merely corrective, since it would follow the creation of a bearish impulse leg via a penetration of March 17's important, 41.89 low. ______ UPDATE (April 24): Last week's steep ascent created a fresh impulse leg on the daily chart. The 4.18% downside target has receded, but it remains theoretically viable. We'll need to monitor two Hidden Pivot levels closely to see whether bulls are about to resume their advance. They lie at 42.91 and 42.50, the respective midpoint and secondary supports of a downtrending rABC begun from March 13's 43.51 high. If interest rates are about to rise anew, watch for this vehicle to bounce from 42.91 and continue higher.