Last week's series of gap-up rallies may have seemed impressive, but the move should be regarded as a dead-cat bounce until it starts exceeding 'external' peaks such as the ones shown in the chart. So far, it has exceeded no such peaks, even on the lowly hour chart. This means the rally is not even faintly impulsive. If you want a wake-up call to tell you when the uptrend becomes significant, set a screen alert at 102.99. That's a single tick above the first 'external' peak buyers will encounter on the weekly chart. It was recorded in July 2023 and is almost unnoticeable, but it is technically significant. Alternatively, if TLT relapses below 88.42, look for more downside to at least 81.80 and a worst-case low at 75.19.
Bitcoin is still on a buy signal from 67,379, although the pullback I was looking for to reload has mutated into a lunatic-powered bender. Is Trump more bullish for cryptocurrencies than Harris would have been? Probably not. It's more a case of everything being bullish for bitcoin at the moment. The chart says nothing can prevent it from achieving the 84,634 target shown. Beyond it lies a roundest-of-all-numbers benchmark at $100,000 that every crypto crazy has dreamed about for years, even after prices collapsed in 2022 from a then-record 68,964 to 15,484. Enjoy the show and use my bullish targets to book profits on the way up (and to get short sometimes). However, no matter how high it goes, don't lose sight of the fact that bitcoin has no real value other than to speculators.
Comex Gold hasn't fully corrected to a D/d target in nearly two years, so we'll be watching closely to see whether it does so this time. That would require more downside to d=2525.80 of the rABC pattern shown, equating to a 10% correction off the recent top. (It was precisely foreseen here back in September with the futures trading $300 lower). A 10% retracement would not be unusual for the steep, prolonged run-up bullion has enjoyed since September 2023. And here's some potentially good news: there is a small (i.e., 25%) chance today's low at 2660.70 will be as bad as it gets, since that's a hair from a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 2663.80 shown in the chart. I doubt bulls will get off that easy, however, and expect the selloff to continue down to at least the secondary pivot (p2) at 2594.80. As always, a decisive penetration of a Hidden Pivot on first contact would imply more slippage to the next, in this case to d=2525.80. An easy penetration of that target would be unwelcome news, since it could spell the end of the bull market begun in 1999 from around $240.
The large gap opened by last Thursday's selloff left the stock well below ponderous supply. Mere bullish buying cannot possibly penetrate it, only a short squeeze powered by a headline that at the moment lies beyond imagining. The deficit will have to be recouped relatively quickly -- within the next 7-10 days, say -- or it will grow even more challenging psychologically. DaBoyz are certain to attempt a last-ditch distribution, which may require taking the stock even lower first to dry up selling. This is a dangerous game, even for the sleazy predators who make their living manipulating this stock, and we'll probably see them attempt the obligatory short squeeze in the days following the election. Trump looks like a lock-up to win, but if his victory gets tied up in the courts, or worse, the squeeze won't work. From a technical standpoint, the stock is on a 'mechanical' buy signal -- the second in two months -- but I am not recommending that you trade it. _______ UPDATE (Nov 8, 12:28 p.m.): The stock has turned so wishy-washy that the lowly H&S pattern I mentioned earlier has my attention, sort of. If MSFT pops, I'd expect a top near 455, implying it is not going to new record highs. A selloff would still need to crack 385.58 to activate the H&S, and the longer MSFT screws the pooch by going sideways, the less likely this will become.
Several subscribers identified the 88.41 downside target of the reverse pattern shown. It sits in a messy voodoo zone, and that's why it will be usable despite its apparent popularity. Bottom-fishing should be done with a reverse-pattern trigger on the weekly chart, where a= 96.47 (August 30). This trade will make you money regardless of whether TLT bottoms at 88.41. It is an 'Eff you, Mr Market' trade, recommended to Pivoteers who are familiar with 'camouflage' set-ups. More immediately, the downside should be exploited as well, since the decisive penetration of p=95.03 implies TLT is very likely to achieve d=88.41.
The futures have sold off $60 so far after coming within a hair of a 2803.40 target I'd been drum-rolling since September. The yellow flag is out, but there is still a higher target outstanding at 2940.10 that should be held in mind, even if the correction continues for another $250. However unlikely, that would bring the December contract down to the green line, triggering a 'mechanical' buy that would provide juicy odds for bottom-fishing. More immediately, the first chance this vehicle will have to regain traction is at 2711.30, my minimum downside objective for the near term (daily chart, a= 2708.70 on 9-26). If that Hidden Pivot support fails, look for the retracement to come into the thicket of October's consolidation zone, between 2640 and 2690. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 7:15 p.m. ET): Comex Gold hasn't fully corrected to a D (conventional) or d (reverse-pattern) target in nearly two years, so we'll be watching closely to see whether it does so this time. That would require more downside to d=2525,80 of the rABC pattern shown, equating to a 10% correction off the recent top. (It was precisely predicted here back in September with the futures trading $300 lower). A 10% retracement would not be unusual to correct the steep, prolonged run-up bullion has enjoyed since September 2023. There is also a small possibility that today's low at 2759.50 will be as bad as it gets, since that is just slightly below the 2663.80 Hidden Pivot midpoint support shown in the chart. I doubt bulls will get off that easy, however, and expect the selloff to continue down to at least the secondary pivot (p2=2594.80). As always, a decisive penetration of that Hidden Pivot on first contact would imply more slippage to the next, in this case d=2525.80. An easy
Last week's wrenching slippage brought GDXJ down to within 18 cents of the 50.55 'd' target of a reverse pattern on the daily chart that was displayed here previously. I've graduated to a bigger bearish pattern that targets 46.71, but the breach on Thursday of that pattern's 51.15 midpoint Hidden Pivot implies the correction will come down to at least p2=48.93. It could fall a further 2.22 to d=46.71, as noted above, if the 'secondary' support (i.e. 48.93) gives way easily. You can bottom-fish either Hidden Pivot with as tight a trigger interval as you can identify on charts of 5-minute degree or less.
The futures bottomed 33 cents above the 66.39 'd' target of a reverse pattern I flagged here last week, hinting that the riffraff was in there bottom-fishing. No matter, since we can always figure out ways to keep a couple of steps ahead of the clowns. For starters, I've moved the point 'a' high to the left, using a 'locked' high to form a reverse pattern that few if anyone will see. Bottom-fish the 65.27 target with as tight a stop-loss as you can craft if the opportunity arises. More immediately, the rally would trigger a 'mechanical' short if it touches the red line (p=71.49, although I am recommending the trade only to ace Pivoteers who know how to calculate the appropriate stop-loss.
The chart shows four Hidden Pivot levels that could yield cautious entry set-ups for traders who shun risk and especially fear high-volatility monsters like this one. We typically trade such levels using 'reverse-pattern' triggers that are discernible on the lesser intraday charts. This tactic is proprietary, but you can seek guidance in the Rick's Picks trading room, a hangout for some of the best day traders you will find online. Please note that if one of the levels shown is decisively (i.e., by more than 0.5%) penetrated on first contact, the next will automatically become the minimum downside target. The lowermost of the targets shown is 61,181, a Hidden Pivot that you should treat as a back-up-the-truck number likely to produce a precise, and therefore easily tradable, low. _______ UPDATE (November 5, 2:36 p.m.): A bullish bet at 67,379, the first place I’d suggested looking for an upturn in the post below, would have produced a gain so far of $3,146. That is based on a so-far high of 70.525 for the move. The low at 66,803 was less than 1% beneath the ‘hidden’ support of the line I drew on the chart accompanying the earlier post. My hunch is that bitcoin will relapse to get a running start on the record 73,578 high recorded on October 29. If so, a tightly stopped bid at 64,280 can be attempted. However, 61,181 is still a back-up-the-truck place to get long ahead of a presumptive record-breaking run-up in the unlikely even Bertie pulls back sharply. Please note that the BRTI symbol is a real-time proxy for bitcoin that reflects the best bids and offers across many crypto markets at a given instant. For trading purposes, you can interpolate my targets, support and resistance levels.
I've led the front page this week with an election week scenario that has the E-Mini S&Ps topping at 6102 on or around Election Day. This Hidden Pivot resistance comes from a composite monthly chart, so don't expect resistance precisely at that number. However, the overall look of the monthly chart is sufficiently compelling to warrant a yellow flag when the futures get there. The target lies 4% above Friday's close, 0r 256 points. Coincidentally, a lesser pattern from the daily chart yields an almost a precisely matching Hidden Pivot target at 6102.75. That means double-stopping power, so don't miss the opportunity to get short there if you trade this vehicle. Don't hesitate to nudge me in the chat room for timely guidance.
