The chart shown provides little basis for determining with confidence whether long-term rates have peaked. We'll know better once we've seen the downtrend that began a week ago from 4.81% interact with midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 4.24% (p, shown as a red line). It would take a decisive penetration of the line on first contact to imply not only that Ten-Year rates have put in an important high near 5%, but that they are headed under 4%, possibly to as low as 3.67%, in 2025. If so, it is likely the U.S. economy will be deep in recession by that time.
Bulls and bears have been in a tug-of-war since November that has looked more like accumulation than distribution. However, the failure of the S&Ps to break out to new record highs last week when exuberance over Trump's election was feverish implies stocks may need to sell off hard to get running room for the next big upthrust, assuming one is coming. I expect the implied correction to bring the March contract down to at least 5863.75 (daily, a=6107.50 on 12/26) before the futures find good traction..
The last time Bitcoin consolidated for a big leap, it took nearly eight months. The current consolidation is just entering its fourth month, so we shouldn't necessarily expect a significant move any time soon. Gratuitous swings will be tradable in the meantime, but not without diligent attention to the intraday charts. BTCUSD is on a buy signal at the moment that was triggered on Friday by a low that fell within a millimeter of a 96,673 Hidden Pivot 'p' support (60-min, a= 98,500 on 2/11). It can reach 100,393, especially if the uptrend penetrates a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 98,558 first. (60m, A=95,220 on 2/13). Please note that there are still two outstanding targets well above at, respectively, 116,807 and 144,586
April Gold stalled last week en route to an important rally target at 3040.90 that will remain viable if the futures don't slip beneath 2586. You should be prepared to bid or bottom-fish aggressively at the midpoint Hidden Pivot, 2838,60, with a tight stop-loss or a small reverse-pattern trigger. If the expected pullback crushes the support, that would open a path down to as low as d=2708.60, equivalent to a correction of 8.7%. The futures would still have a chance to turn around at 2773.60, the pattern's 'secondary Hidden Pivot support'.
Silver quotes came down hard after an exhilarating run-up last week, trapping bulls and bears alike. I expect the selloff to hit 32.148 at least, but if that Hidden Pivot midpoint support is penetrated decisively on first contact, it would imply more slippage to 31.101, or possibly as low as 30.055. The chart shown displays an in-your-face head-and-shoulders pattern, a bearish formation that is too ubiquitous and popular to be considered reliable. However, it does describe a distribution that has been occurring since June that will have created significant supply between here and new highs above October's 35.530 peak.
GDXJ's punitive reversal last week following a promising rally failed by two ticks to trigger a theoretical sell signal. It will likely happen in the next few days, however, sending this gold-miner ETF down to at least 48.25, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support. As always, a decisive breach of the support on first contact would imply more slippage down to as low as the pattern's 'd' target -- in this case, 43.66. That is unlikely, but we'll be better able to assess the odds once we've seen sellers interact with p.
A 3040.90 rally target proffered here earlier remains viable, although we should be prepared for a possible stall at 2927.40, a 'secondary' Hidden Pivot. If buyers fist-pump their way through it, that would firm the case for a follow-through to at least 3040.90. The target might not work precisely because of the pattern's murky origins in a clutter of possible starting points. It is good enough for government work, however, and has kept us on the right side of the trend even when bullion was getting slammed by the white-shoe hoodlums who run the show. The ascent to 3040.90 could be relatively steep, since the breakout two weeks ago blew the cover of central banks and others who had been quietly accumulating gold after it stalled in November and traded in a range for several months.
The March contract is poised for a breakout above an 'external peak at 33.330 recorded in mid-December. This would be quite bullish since it would activate a larger pattern that projects as high as 36.240. My minimum upside projection would be 34.46, the large pattern's secondary Hidden Pivot. The breakout was telegraphed a month ago when March Silver struggled to reach a 28.245 correction target. The futures went no lower than 29.145, implying that sellers were too depleted to finish the job. The more or less inevitable rally that followed was extremely choppy, suggesting there were plenty of skeptics and also daunting supply. Once above 33.33, however, bulls will have a clear path to highs above 35 unseen since 2012.
GDXJ remains an odds-on bet to reach the 54.92 Hidden Pivot target shown. This was all but ensured when bulls gapped through the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p) at 48.39 on January 30. An additional sign of strength is that there have been no selloffs on the daily chart to enable a 'mechanical' buy at either x (the green line) or p (the red line). Only true believers would be on board at this point, since the steepness of the rally has left doubters choking on dust. The 54.92 target should be regarded as a minimum objective, since using the lower point 'A' available at 40.26 (August 5) yields an alternative projection to 57.17. The pattern has a 'secondary' Hidden Pivot at 53.34 where you should be prepared for at least slight resistance and perhaps even a tradable pullback. Long-term investors should consider covered-writes there.
Unlike AAPL, Microsoft's weakness cannot be attributed to unforced errors, or even to the prospect of recession. The stock has simply leveled off after a spectacular run-up in the first half of 2024. There isn't much to support it just below, however, and that's why it could fall hard if just one engine sputters out. I'd be inclined to try bottom-fishing at 393.19, an interesting voodoo number, in any case, but with a very tight stop loss created with a small 'reverse pattern'. If this magic level were to give way, the next stop would likely be around 375, where a cluster of obscure supports lies.
