The futures spent the last two sessions head-butting a modest midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 7582. You might think the failure to break through was a sign of weakness, but the opposite is true. Considering that no one but Trump and Vance is impressed with the cease-fire plan, and that the Fed is waxing hawkish, the lackluster performance of the S&P must be viewed as a volcano gathering subterranean force. The index hardly pulled back at all, and so we should expect it to launch anew on Monday, assuming Wall Street is not too hungover from Juneteenth craziness. Look for the E-Minis to ascend to D=7692.00, a sufficiently 'D' target to show tradeable stopping power. A dip first to the green line from above Thursday's highs, however unlikely, would trigger a tempting 'mechanical' buy, so be ready if you know how to handle it with a small-pattern (i.e., 'camo') trigger. _______ UPDATE (Jun 22, 11:27): Cancel the trade (or exit it now for a nice profit if you got long at the green line). Mr Market is doing his utmost to screw with our heads, first by dropping ES to within a single point of the green line at 1:00 a.m. before popping off a 71-point rally. He then plunged ES to the green line EXACTLY before embarking on the current, so-far 23-point, rally. Since no subscriber mentioned any of this in the chat room, I will assume everyone either slept through it or ignored the opportunity.
An unorthodox target I'd drawn near 380 failed to contain the selling, so I've switched to a conventional pattern that projects significantly lower. My expectations are bullish for the market as a whole when stocks start to trade on Sunday, and I don't expect MSFT to go its own way. However, the stock's decisive breach of the midpoint support (p=402.80) suggests it is likely to eventually reach the target. The implication is that MSFT and the broad average could head higher over the next few days, but the rally won't get very far. We can adjust our expectations as more evidence becomes available.
Crude bounced with enough vigor at week's end to suggest that this bear rally will reach a minimum 79.90, a Hidden Pivot target that lies $3.40 above Friday's settlement price. If the futures fall first to 74.60 without going higher than 77.34 (or so), they will trigger an attractive 'mechanical' buy with a stop-loss at 72.92. I have not provided an illustration because the technical details are proprietary, but the tactic is covered explicitly in the free course I've made available to subscribers.
Brace for more disappointment in the days and weeks ahead, since the futures give every indication that they'll continue falling to at least 3795.20, the 'D' target of the pattern shown. Gold will have given up a third of its peak value if that happens, a middling bear market. A rally in the meantime to as high as the green line (x=4664) would be widely interpreted as bullish, but Hidden Pivot analysis suggests it would actually set up an opportune short sale. If you're eager for signs of a durable upturn, look for a rally that exceeds two prior peaks on the daily chart without a B-C correction. Another indicator would be corrective patterns, including those in minor-degree charts, that do not reach their D targets but instead reverse from the midpoint of Hidden Pivots.
Friday's rally mirrored gold's, meaning you shouldn't get your hopes too high. The pattern suggests that once the bounce ends and silver resumes its downward course, it could eventually go as low as 54.735. That's 20% below these levels, meaning a whole 'nother bear market could unfold before Ag finds a bottom. If that sounds overly bearish, we can allow for the possibility that bulls have turned things around if the July contract surpasses the 77.355 peak recorded on June 2. For current purposes, however, we'll plan on trading with a bullish bias if and when the futures push above last week's 68.800 peak. That would generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart, brightening the short-term outlook. _______ UPDATE (Jun 21): As expected, a weak rally died before the futures could surpass even a single Hidden Pivot level on the daily chart. By week's end, they appeared on track again for a fall to the 54.735 target shown. That would equate to a 53% drop since spot quotes peaked in late January around 123.
I've lowered the target somewhat to 81.94 by switching from the daily chart to the hourly. The picture is just as dismal, however, and although GDXJ has shown more pluck than bullion futures, it is not immune to gravity. Since we should always allow for another possibility, let's stipulate that a rally exceeding the 120.05 peak recorded on May 29 would signal a bull resurgence. Given GDXJ's strength relative to gold itself, it would be unsurprising for it to lead the way.
Switching to the September contract, the futures were on their way up to at least 7570 .75 when the closing bell ended a do-nothing week. This is all but guaranteed, given the way buyers fist-pumped through the midpoint Hidden Pivot on Thursday. The futures were little changed from the previous Friday's close, although a gratuitous feint south on Wednesday made this vehicle worth trading. Friday's action featured one 'mechanical' buy signal at the red line, although we typically do them only at the green line (i.e., at x=7351.75). When the new week begins on Sunday afternoon, I recommend getting short for a scalp-trade at 7570.75, but only to subscribers who know how to reduce the entry risk to relative pocket change by using a 'camouflage' trigger. The technique is spelled out in detail in the $2500 Hidden Pivot course that I've made available free to subscribers. _______ UPDATE (Jun 14, 10:50 p.m.): The prospect of Whirled Peas goosed stocks hard when they resumed trading this afternoon. The E-minis came within an inch of the 7570.75 target on the opening bar, then leaped above it after a shallow pullback. A second pullback from the new top at 7574.75 would have triggered a tight 'camo' short with (visual) TI= 5.25 points; the resulting loss would have been a relatively modest $260 per contract. At the moment, the futures are in a runaway short-squeeze that has hit 7583.75 so far. It can be shorted nonetheless using a larger reverse trigger of 15.75 points. That is too wide and risky for my taste, although I would rate the trade no worse than an even bet to make money. Based on the so-far high at 7583.25, the short would come at 7567.25, with 50% to be covered at 7551.25. With index futures in an apparent
Friday's opening bar just missed touching a 380.10 correction target I'd disseminated in the chat room earlier in the week. The low missed by $2.16, and although the stock had fallen nearly $90 to get there, subscribers who use my targets are accustomed to better precision. For the sake of practicality, however, I will consider the target as fulfilled (although I'd be tempted to bottom-fish with a camo trigger if MSFT relapses at the start of the week. It's important to get this stock right, since I still consider it the #1 bellwether for the bull market. That's mainly because a large piece of the company's revenues come not from AI-related hubris, but from the bedrock of recurring sales of the Windows operating system and online services.
Gold caught a favorable breeze on Friday for a change, but if you're a long-term investor, I'd suggest enjoying the countertrend while it lasts. The initial breach of the 4372 midpoint Hidden Pivot support was sufficiently clear to imply that the 3800.60 target will be reached. It could turn out even worse, actually, since a bear-market low at 3606.40 is technically possible if you slide the pattern's point 'A' high up to the record (one-off) at 5493, recorded on March 2. And don't get too excited if this bounce continues all the way up to the green line (x=4617.00), since that would trigger an appealing short (stop 4954.00).
Sellers struggled harder in GDXJ to break down the midpoint support (p=110.36) than in either Silver or Gold futures. That makes its chart more bullish, but not much. We should therefore infer that the bear market will resume, and that GDXJ will eventually fall to D=84.17 once this bounce is over. Of course, let's also allow for the possibility that the rally is for real by stipulating that a move exceeding May 29's peak of 120.05 would put bulls solidly back in charge after spending more than three months in purgatory.
