Rick’s Picks

Bulls won last week's teeter-totter competition, but not by much. They held the line against sellers on Friday with a rally into the close that averted a fall to the red line (p=3932.60) after a theoretical sell signal was triggered. Now they will need to negate the bearish pattern by rallying above C=4059.90. If the effort fails, however, p would still be an enticing place to attempt bottom fishing with a tightly crafted 'camo' trigger.  Price action there will also give us a reliable means of assessing trend strength, since a decisive breach of the 'hidden support' would imply that further slippage is likely. ________ UPDATE (Nov 6, 7:50 a.m. EST): Gold has been spasming tediously sideways for eight days, but it looks ready to push above the 4059.90 top of the range to a 4068.00 Hidden Pivot target (30m, A=3934.20 on 10/29).  It will need to decisively exceed that resistance, however, to signal the possible resumption of the long-term bull market. A more critical, conventional resistance lies at 4175.00 in the form of a daunting series of peaks, the highest of which is 4175.00.  Bottom line: bulls have plenty of work to do to get back on track. If they fail, my worst-case correction target would be 3802.60.

Silver is close to aborting a 'mechanical' sell signal that triggered last Tuesday with a rally back to the green line (x=47.96). If buyers can pop it above C=49.225, negating the pattern, it would be a constructive way to start the week.  The first Hidden Pivot resistance they would encounter above it lies at 50.030, a minor 'D' target associated with the 45,510 low recorded on October 28. Short there only if you've caught a profitable piece of the approximately $1.75 ride north that remains between Friday's closing price and the target.

Last week's nasty chop barely recovered ground lost as the week began, when GDXJ's canny handlers orchestrated a $17 shakedown on Monday's opening. This was bullish, like all shakedowns, because its purpose was to scare widows and pensioners into selling their shares for relative bargain prices. The subsequent bounce triggered a 'mechanical' short when it reached the green line (x=93.97), but the flat price action that followed looked unpromising as a place to bet the 'don't' line. Stay tuned for updates as GDXJ gives us a clearer picture. You can do this by enabling notifications in your account dashboard and by checking the chat room regularly.

Friday's bounce from the red line (p=108,391) was faintly bullish within a cycle of weakness that has persisted for a month. It would take a push above 118,135 to clear a path to new record highs, albeit with no guarantees. More immediately, the number to beat is 112,207, a Hidden Pivot resistance associated with 118,135. A decisive move through it on first contact would ensure more upside to at least 115,171. Scalpers could get short there if they've profited on the way up.  The foregoing could all be moot by the time you read this, since I am unable to determine whether Tradestation has been updating price data for this vehicle. It usually flows 24/7, but the most recent bar I have right now was recorded a day ago, on Saturday. The pattern I've used is such a good one, though, that I expect it to work out exactly as detailed above.

TLT continues to grind higher, perhaps to deny skeptics the inspiration they need to climb aboard early in this bull market.  It is still in its adolescence, too early to predict which tectonic financial event(s) it is signaling. The trend flouts Trump's persistent efforts to cheapen the dollar, if not to say trash it.  This is a paradox that I've explained here before, to wit: the president's bold leadership has been attracting hordes of T-Bond buyers from around the world, providing an offset to the fiscal and credit excesses Trump believes will lift the U.S. economy.  Grotesquely inflated asset prices belie the fact that, for most Americans, the economy has slipped into a deep, intractable recession.  For the lucky winners, a debt deflation and bear market in stocks awaits those whose net worth has soared mainly due to Fed easing. Regarding TLT, don't pass up an opportunity to buy it 'mechanically' on a pullback to the green line (x=89.85), stop 88.45. ______ UPDATE (Nov 7): A nasty, six-day selloff triggered the 'mechanical' buy I'd suggested at 89.85. The futures continued to fall but didn't stop out the position, since the downtrend went no further than 88.88. Maintain the 88.45 stop-loss for now and hope for a push above 90.66, since that's what it would take to put bulls back in charge. A decline that touches the stop would be the most bearish event we've seen in this vehicle since last April.

Even with its unusually elongated A-B leg, the pattern shown remains the best source of tradable information we have for the runaway bull market. Price action at p suggests the 7057.50 target is likely to be reached, but until it is decisively breached, we won't concern ourselves with a still higher target at 7531.25 that was identified here earlier. As you can see, the pattern also leaves room for a few scary corrections along the way. The current one will need to come down to the red line (p=6798.88), however, before I suggest buying there 'mechanically'. We usually do these trades on pullbacks to the green line, but in this case, given the steepness of the uptrend, that opportunity may not materialize. The 'textbook' stop-loss for this trade would be at 6712.50, but in practice, we would use a 'camo' trigger to pare down theoretical entry risk by at least 90%. _______ UPDATE (Nov 3, 2:35 p.m.): Today's refreshing plunge has brought greater clarity to the immediate outlook. You can expect the futures to fall to a tradable low at 6681.75. If they rally first to 6885.7, short the crap out of them, stop 6954.00. The latter trade should be done only with a 'camo' trigger that cuts theoretical entry risk to no more than $400 per contract, and only if you've caught a profitable piece of the ride up. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 2025): DaBoyz used every sleazy trick in the book to spike ES (see my explanation in the chat room), but they couldn't even goose it to the red line (p=6865.63) before buyers turned tail at day's end. Use the pattern shown, ugly but serviceable, to determine whether They will eventually succeed. A decisive thrust past 'p', especially followed by a close above it, will imply that dangerous

The chart shows two bullish targets that are likely to be reached in the weeks and months ahead. Most immediately, there is the 7057.50 target of the smaller pattern. A more important Hidden Pivot sits well above it at 7351.25.  It is particularly important because it would max out bullish patterns on the weekly chart. Both are likely to be achieved because buyers showed little struggle overcoming the respective midpoint Hidden Pivots. Most immediately, if the December contract pulls back from between the red line (p=6798.88) and the pink one (p2=6928.19), a 'mechanical' bid at the green line (x=6669.50) would enjoy excellent odds of success. _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 4:23 p.m. EDT): Please check out my latest post in the chat room for new, potentially tradable, details. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 7:59 a.m.): See my 5:54 a.m. update in the chatroom for the latest outlook. 

We settled on MSFT, the second most valuable company in the world, as the mine canary that would signal the end of the bull market. So far, it is saying we should stick with the uptrend, albeit with one foot on the fire escape. The chart shows a logical path to the 547.12 rally target identified here earlier. It is not a done deal, since buyers did not exactly trash the midpoint resistance (p=519.75) on first contact, nor have they broken free of its gravitational pull.  Even so, there is almost no chance that p2=533.43 will not be achieved.  Any pullback to the green line (x=506.06) in the meantime should be regarded as an excellent 'mechanical' buying opportunity. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 2:59 p.m. EDT): Microsoft's decision to dive into fee-based AI has tacked on yet more hundreds of billions of gaseous 'wealth-effect' value to its shares.  Today's volumeless stab through the green line (x=543.00) has shortened the odds of a further run-up to p=592.94. I have my doubts the stock will achieve D=692.83, so we should be ready to short the bejeezus out of it at p, provided we've made plenty of dough on the way up.  Here's the chart.  

The 'reverse' pattern shown has worked perfectly so far, triggering no fewer than three consecutive trades that produced a profit. The first was a conventional long at the green line, followed by a short at the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 4172.70.  The last, an easy winner initiated as a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=4071,70), remained 'live' as the week ended. This series of winners strongly implies that December Gold will achieve the 4223.20 target shown. The futures would become a compelling short at that price, assuming you've made some money on the way up and that you know how to limit entry risk to small change. I have one outstanding target at 5020 that was identified here earlier. Its provenance is not nearly as clear as the targets we've been using, however, and that's why I am going to stick with the lesser charts for the foreseeable future. If the current move should impale d=4223.20, that would open up a clear path to at least 4351.30, a tad beneath the old high at 4398; or to 4461.30 if any higher.  (For a detailed discussion of a somewhat bigger picture, see my 13:51 post in the chat room on Saturday.) _____  UPDATE (Oct 29, 11:28 a.m. EDT): While we were waiting, a $10,000 trade dropped neatly into our lap. See the chat room thread from yesterday and this morning for precise details.  _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 6:50 p.m.): I used a big-picture chart in the chat room last Saturday to lend perspective to a discussion about gold's so-far mild correction. EWT forecasters appear to disagree about where and when the retracement will end. Since then, a lesser chart using Hidden Pivot levels has evolved to suggest the correction could already be over. This interpretation would be strengthened by a pop