The futures were on a tortuous path down to the 6833.25 target shown, a Hidden Pivot 'D' target where you can try bottom-fishing with a 'camo' (i.e., short- interval) trigger using a reverse pattern (rABC). The bounces along the way grew increasingly gratuitous and violent as the week drew to a close, but none went quite high enough to trigger a mechanical short. (The only trade indicated so far was a 'conventional' short at the green line.) That's why if the trade fills, you should take profits on at least half of your position on a one-level gain to p2 (6873.44).
Microsoft has been screwing the pooch for nearly five weeks, but Friday's close made the hourly chart look a little more menacing. There was a very slight, gratuitous breach of a mid-December low that had marked the bottom of MSFT's tedious range, and we might have expected the snap-back rally to have achieved more loft with fewer bulls on board to weigh it down. If they don't come galloping back in soon, though, look for more sinkage to at least 460.58, the pattern's seoncdary Hidden Pivot. Worst case for the next 10-12 days is 448.77, the 'D' target.
The pattern we've been using to trade and forecast the February contract is unorthodox, but all three coordinates -- A, B and C -- should be considered 'locked' because there are no alternatives. That implies that if and when the pullback from December 26's record 4584.00 touches the rgeen line, it would trigger a 'mechanical' buy. The opportunity rates a juicy '8' on a 1-10 scale, even if there can be no guarantees the rally will achieve D=5132.20. The trade would be good for at least a one-level ride, however, from x to p2. It should only be attempted by Pivoteers who are familiar with 'camo' triggers, since the initial risk, based on a stop-loss below 'C'=3933.20, would be $30,000 (!) per contract.
A big reverse pattern going back two weeks shows a key resistance at 75.510 if the futures should rallly from the hole they've dug themselves since topping at 82.67 on December 28. The 'D' target associated with that midpoint Hidden Pivot lies at 81.795, which would fall just shy for the old record. More immediately, however, a smaller, bearish pattern targetd on 70.810 must run its course before bulls are likely to find traction. If they don't and the March contract slips below 69.255, that could put it into a dive to as low as 65.40 over the near term. Look for a tradeable bounce there if the 'hidden support' is hit.
We've been using an ambitious rally target at 135.90 for a while, but the pattern shown looks so heavy that it's time to focus on corrective patterns on the lesser charts. This will give us a more finely nuanced 'read' on trend strength, and perhaps even telegraph an exuberant leap into the bearish gap that occurred when the markets opened on Monday after Christmas. The immediate target is a 'd' Hidden Pivot at 115.12, and it would need to be penetrated easily and decisively to suggest a very-bullish 'island-gap reversal' in the making, Alternatively, if the rally fails, brace for backsliding to around 108, where GDXJ consolidated in early December for its powerful run-up to the 122 peak recorded on December 26.
I predicted earlier in the week that this hoax would probably go no higher than 90,941 over the near term. In fact, an easily tradeable top did occur at 90,935 on Friday, meaning the forecast missed by just 0.006%, or six-thousandths of a percentage point. That's pretty routine for spontaneous trade recommendations posted in the chat room, as any subscriber could attest, and it could have made an alert scalper more than $2,000 if he or she got long when the target was posted, then another $2180 if the position was reversed ahead of the subsequent swoon. Sadly, the reaction in the chat room to this dead-center bullseye was muted, to put it mildly, leaving me with little incentive to continue covering Bitcoin. Accordingly, unless I hear from at least a dozen subscribers who want BTC to remain on the list, I will substitute another symbol, presumably one that has greater significance for the economy. If you are pimply-faced robinhoodie who has followed my Bitcoin touts surreptitiously, your vote, too, will count, but you'll need to subscribe to Rick's Picks for money to record your preference in the chat room.
The reverse head-and-shoulders pattern shown yields a target up near 7,250, implying that 2026 will begin with a bullish bang. I don't often refer to H&S patterns because they can be found anywhere one looks for them. However, there is no denying that they describe a telling picture of supply and demand, and that bulls have the upper hand in the picture shown. From a Hidden Pivot standpoint, a mere 7026.50 is as high as I can comfortably project. That implies the head-and-shoulders effect will be stillborn, a possibility to which we should remain open-minded but without bias. If buyers blow past that number, it would shorten the odds of a follow-through to 7250 or so.
Although the trend has been bearish since the stock at peaked at 555.45 in July, bears have struggled lately to achieve the implied correction target at 444.95. Most immediately, I expect the stock to run up to the 496.09 target of a minor pattern. If it takes out the pattern's 'C' low at 482.09 (12/19) first, however, I'd consider the possibility that stocks are in a bear market more seriously. Because of its solid revenue stream and its pre-eminence in the lunatic sector (aka the Magnificent Seven), Microsoft remains my #1 bellwether for the 16-year-old bull market.
Silver has used up all big-picture targets going back to a time when a single ounce sold for less than $4, leaving us with only sketchy 'extension' targets along the C-D leg. They project possible 'D' resistance at 81.240 or perhaps 82.295, but I see little practical value in these numbers, let alone a reason to short them. It is a severe bear-squeeze that is driving quotes in the first place, and no one can say with confidence how high it will go. As a practical matter, however, you can't go far wrong taking some profits if you've held silver or its equivalent from lower levels. Once you've done this, it will become easier to decide how much exposure you want to retain. Keep in mind that when the ballistic ascent finally breaks, the plunge will allow no easy escape, much less a good profit-taking opportunity. Even if it should come from a high of, say, $150/oz, there might be no exit possible for the first $50 of the fall.
Although T-Bonds prices have been skittering sideways for more than three years, a further fall in this U.S. Bond proxy to at least 78.43 seems unavoidable. (Note: The numbers have been adjusted somewhat to reflect the more precise picture afforded by the weekly chart.) This implies that rates are headed higher, since they correlate inversely with T-bond prices. Yields on the 30-Year were at 4.82% when last week ended, but we might expect them to rise to around 5.5% if TLT falls to 78.43, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support. That would seem to be enough to pop the financial bubble, although we shouldn't underestimate Trump's ability to keep it intact for yet more months.
