Last week's impalement of the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 103.58, is bad news for the geopolitical and economic world, since it implies June Crude will reach a minimum 128.19. Although the feeble point 'A' leaves a lot to be desired as a starting point for the pattern, it will do in a pinch. A pullback to the green line would undoubtedly be read as relief, but this chart says it would be an opportunity to buy aggressively for a blast to new highs. A 'camo' trigger should be used to cut the approximately $12k entry risk by at least 95%. The tactic is detailed in a course I've made available free to subscribers.
Rates on the Ten-Year Note climbed to within inches of the 4.48% high recorded on March 27, but there is reason to doubt they are about to break out. Specifically, the pullback from the high breached a Hidden Pivot midpoint support at 4.35%, implying more slippage to at least 4.28% is no worse than an even bet. Using the futures contract, traders can get short at 4.39% (interpolated) with a stop-loss at 4.44%.
A measly 3% rally would reach the 7499.75 target shown. This is a composite chart, so we shouldn't expect to see precise stopping power, but it should be close enough for government work. There are two other Hidden Pivot resistances to hold in mind if the futures keep going: 7644 and 10,336. That last number is the highest I can project on the monthly chart, and it is intended to stretch your imagination, especially if you are a permabear. Because penetration of p=6166.00 was effortless and decisive, it's all but certain the lower target will be achieved. Since this is the bull market that won't die, don't assume the target will mark an important top unless it coincides with Iran's complete surrender.
Microsoft has had a strong move off March's 356 low, but the monthly chart makes it look feeble. True, the stock's steep descent tripped a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=408.52). However, I don't expect the bounce to get much further than the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance (p=472.25), if that far. I am no fan of head-and-shoulders patterns because they are everywhere one cares to find them, but it is not difficult to imagine a picture-perfect right shoulder forming. Regardless, the pattern as is should serve our need to keep close track of this crucial stock-market bellwether.
Although mid-April's high narrowly missed the 'd' target at 139.46, a pullback to the green line should still be regarded as an opportunity to bottom-fish 'mechanically'. The odds thereafter would favor a one-level move to p=121.17, although not necessarily a finishing stroke that finally achieves d. As implied above, a pullback to the green line (x=112.03) should be used to get long, much as I have suggested in July Silver. A 'camo' trigger is obligatory, since the entry risk with a stop below 'c' would exceed $900 per round lot.
I've arbitrarily chosen to emphasize the bullish side of this chart, using a reversal pattern that projects to 5144.00. It assumes that June Gold is on a 'mechanical' buy signal that triggered last week with a dip below the red line (p=4363.30). (It missed being stopped out by 4467 by $55.) The somewhat bearish possibility starts with A=5474, the March 6 high. The corresponding midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 4244.8 would be a back-up-the-truck number for bargain-hunting bulls.
The bullish pattern shown projects to 93.99 and corresponds to the one accompanying the current Gold tout. A key difference is that Silver did not signal a 'mechanical' buy, or at least not one that would still be "live". That could actually be construed as a sign of strength, since the futures did not pull back far enough to touch the green line (x=69.744) where we initiate most of our 'mechanical' trades. If it does so this week, however, don't hesitate to buy there, albeit with a 'camo' trigger that would spare us the approximately $40,000 of entry risk associated with a textbook stop below 'c'.
The potentially important low I signaled a week ago caught the exact bottom of a powerful, $20 rally. It came within 11 cents of the 98.50 target for the June contract, then receded by nearly $6 to finish the week. Are bulls depleted? We may know soon, since, with moderate selling to start the new week, the retracement will test the 89.41 midpoint Hidden Pivot support of a reverse pattern on the daily chart (a= 96.93 on 4/13). It should hold if Crude is going to challenge the spike high at 104.34 recorded on March 9. Otherwise, a decisive breach of p would open a path down to at least 80.43. This analysis should prove as accurate as the one proffered last week, since the patterns on the chart are equally compelling.
The chart leaves little doubt that June Gold will achieve the 5144.00 target, a Hidden Pivot. If it takes as much time to get there as it did to complete the A-B impulse leg, this should happen within the next ten days or so. A pullback to the green is not inconceivable; it would add more time to the ascent but would also be a gift, since the 'mechanical' buy signal it would trigger would be of the highest quality. Our main concern should be price action when the uptrend reaches 'D', since a decisive move past it would imply significantly higher prices lie ahead, starting with a test of January's all-time high at 5666.
Although silver's price action has been somewhat more subdued than gold's, I've adjusted the bullish pattern on the weekly chart to produce a rally target commensurate with gold's. A similarity you should be prepared to exploit is that a pullback to the green line would create a very attractive 'mechanical' buying opportunity. We would want to cash out of half the position on a one-level bounce back to p=77.530, since the price action on the chart suggests Silver will be more challenged by gravity to sprint toward d=93.850 once it has left the starting block at the green line.
