Rick’s Picks

TLT weakened last week after creating a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, generating a theoretical sell signal in the process. If the so-far moderate decline is merely corrective, we should see a tradable rebound from the 85.99 midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart (inset).  That is what I expect, but if the support gives way, especially on a closing basis, expect the slippage to continue down to at least p2=84.76, or even to a worst-case d=83.53.  That would leave the important low at 83.30 recorded on May 22 intact, but only barely.

The pattern shown in the inset sucks for trading because the 'a' and 'c' highs are nearly equal, and because the a-b leg did not surpass any prior 'external' lows. That's why I'll suggest paper trading this one unless you know how to craft a small-pattern trigger (aka 'camouflage') that can reduce the $8200 entry risk to $270 or less per contract. However, merely spectating should help us determine with greater confidence whether the soul-crushing tedium of the last two months is more likely to give way to a breakout, or a breakdown. Regardless, if the August contract touches the green line (x=3394.70), that would trigger a theoretical 'mechanical' short, stop 3477. If the hypothetical trade produces a profit, that will imply that bears have at least a small edge at the moment. ______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 1:45 a.m. EDT): The futures will fall to at least 3301.80 before they can find a foothold. Bottom-fish there with a tight rABC trigger if you are familiar with the tactic. Otherwise, I'd suggest spectating.

The chart provides no strong clues concerning the direction of the next big move. Usually, charts of lesser degree are helpful when the bigger charts are unclear, as is currently the case in Comex Silver. In this case, however, last Wednesday's feint to the red line failed to touch it, denying us an opportunity to get short 'mechanically' when the futures rallied back up to the green line (x=36.939). The most promising trade I can discern in this chart would be to buy a swoon to d=35.812. That seems unlikely, but we should set a screen alert nonetheless so that we won't miss the opportunity if it comes.

The very gnarly ABCD pattern shown is one of my favorites because it rs tripped a profitable conventional long at the green line (x=106,290): a profitable short from the red line (p=107,900); and a profitable 'mechanical' buy at 106,900 that was recently featured here. There are two good possibilities left:  a 'mechanical' buy at 107,900, stop 106,827; and a short from 111,118.27. Regarding the latter trade, I expect the target to show sufficiently precise stopping power to allow a very tight stop-loss if it is hit. Even if D is not reached, which seems unlikely, it will have kept us on the right side of a bullish trend since the futures were trading below 105,000. _______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 12:31 a.m. EDT): The 'mechanical' trade is showing a gain of nearly $1400 at the moment, so I'll suggest taking a partial profit if possible. If you swing for the fences, use a trailing stop that will preserve at least a nominal win no matter what. _______ UPDATE (Jul 9, 4:50 p.m.): This afternoon's strong short squeeze impaled my 111,118 rally target, clinching more upside over the very near-term to at least 112,739. That is a clear and compelling Hidden Pivot resistance, and if buyers brush it aside, expect the rally to continue to at least 117,676.

Last week's nasty short-squeeze stopped just shy of the 6250.38 target I'd drum-rolled, but the selloff that followed quickly reversed an hour before the closing bell. Since Microsoft performed similarly relative to a more quietly disseminated target at 503.69, we should begin the week with at least modest expectations that the stock market has suffered a stroke. However, let's not be too surprised if both vehicles blow past these calculated obstacles, much as they've been doing for years. I strongly doubt this will happen, although staking out a short position will have become more difficult because Friday's top occurred so close to one that only we 'knew' about.  That's debatable, of course, since I myself raised the possibility that every Tom, dick and Harry we compete against has figured out how to 'read' the C-D midpoints of conventional patterns and to trade against them. In any case, if DaBoyz tighten their vise grip on bears' scrota as the new weeks begins, look for the futures to continue on up to at least p2=6469.81. ________ UPDATE (Jul 3, 1:35 a.m. EDT):  Buyers shattered a concrete Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 6250.38, clearing a path to at least 6306.25 (60m, A=5993.25 on 6/25, B=6329.00 on 6/27). _______ UPDATE (Jul 3, 2:59 p.m.): The Mother of All Short Squeezes has blown past 6306.25 (see my last update) with such ease that more upside to at least 6429.00 is coming.  That is the 'D' target of a pattern smaller than the one tied to the 6469.81 midpoint Hidden Pivot noted above, but we'll put it out of mind until 6429.00 is achieved and then, presumably, surpassed

[Note:  I've changed the core list of touts, adding some futures contracts in order to provide more tradable opportunities. The new selections will vary from week to week.  RA ]  There are no sure things in the trading world, but the possibilities in the Copper contract shown in the chart look quite enticing. This pattern has already paid off twice with a 'conventional' buy at the green line (x=4.4079), and a 'mechanical' buy on the pullback to the red line (p=4.6983). It can still be milked for two additional trades: 1) a 'long' to d=5.2790; and ) a short when d=5.2790 is achieved (which looks like a foregone conclusion). The latter trade is the more promising, since the chart holds out the possibility of an important top at or near the target. ______ UPDATE (Jul 4): The futures made scant headway last week toward the 5.2790 target noted above. Short there with a tight stop-loss if you've held a long position that made money on the way up. The target is the 'd' terminus of a large 'reverse' pattern begun last winter, so a reversal there could conceivably be an important one, and you should treat it as such.  Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Jul 11) Trump's latest tariff threat spiked the price of copper by nearly $1.00 per pound in a single day, blowing past my 5.2790 rally target with ease. I'd suggested shorting there only to subscribers who were long on the way up, but the extreme volatility of the move could have produced results that varied significantly. I'd be interesting in hearing from those who did the trade, since it will sharpen my ability to tailor trades to suit your needs and your appetite for risk.

The grandaddy of all short squeezes (in dollar terms) stopped an inch shy of the 503.69 target we've been using. It looks like 'our' target got front-run on the intraday charts, but the view shown, of the daily chart, 'feels' like the target will be achieved. In any case, we should be ready to get short there, especially subscribers who have made money on the way up using my crazy-bullish targets. This should be done with a tight stop-loss, preferably tied to a small-pattern ('camouflage') trigger, since we've become used to seeing this stock vaporize Hidden Pivots made from inch-thick titanium. I consider this unlikely, but the pattern itself is probably too obvious to give us our top precisely where we want it. ______ UPDATE (Jul 4, 12:55 p.m. EDT): Some subscribers were able to get long just ahead of the stock's engineered, lunatic leap this morning using a Hidden Pivot correction target I'd disseminated earlier.  Visit the chat room for details. ______ UPDATE (Jul 4): Technical signs remain persuasive that the stock will make a potentially important top at or near 503.69, a Hidden Pivot resistance nine months in the making.  This warrants laying out shorts at or near the target -- either via purchasing puts when MSFT gets there; or, preferably, naked-shorting soon-to-expire, at-the-money calls with a tight stop-loss. ________ UPDATE July 9, 6:41 p.m. EDT): The Great Microsoft Waft drilled a .50 caliber hole in my Hidden Pivot target before pulling back unconvincingly. The stock is on its way to at least 516.95 over the near-term. It should be bought 'mechanically' on a retracement to x=495.76, stop 488.69, (60m, A=472.51 on 6/23).

This bottom-fishing recommendation in September Yen uses a proprietary set-up that I call a 'mechanical' trade. The implication is that the entry price and subsequent risk-management are determined automatically, as follows: 1) bid at the green line (x=0.68936) following a pullback from between p (the midpoint Hidden Pivot, 0.69683) and p2 (the secondary Hidden Pivot, 0.70429). If the move goes your way, take off half the position on a rally back up to p=0.69683, and another 25% at p2=0.70429. The remaining 25% can be held for at swing at the fence. Since the initial stop-loss just below c=0.68190 implies entry risk of nearly $1000 per contract, I suggest using a small-pattern trigger, with a commensurately small stop-loss, to initiate the trade when x is hit on the pullback. Generally, however, I will recommend these trades only when I think the odds are favorable for cashing out on a move of at least one level (i.e., from x to p). _______ UPDATE (Jul 4):  Although the futures made a high above p2=0.70429 last week, my recommendation is unchanged: buy a pullback to the green line (x=0.68936) using a small-interval trigger. _______ UPDATE (Jul 12, 12:46 a.m.): The September contract lies within a hair of stopping out the position detailed above for a $934 loss. If this happens, I will publish a new trade shortly thereafter so that we can  move on.

Sellers savaged the 3313.20 midpoint support with such ease last week that the futures are likely to continue down to at least p2=3231.60. And if they fail to get a strong bounce from that Hidden Pivot, expect the correction to hit D=3150.00. An additional possibility is that the turn will come from near the middle of the gap between p and p2, or between p2 and D. Unfortunately, the only way one can trade that scenario with risk tightly controlled is to watch for the turn on a chart of every small (i.e., one- or two-minute) bar chart. And here's one more possible bottom-fishing opportunity for Pivoteers who know how to craft a low-risk trigger: 3253.30, a voodoo number. ________ UPDATE (Jul 2, 1:19 a.m.) The futures opened on a gap down to 3250.50 on Sunday afternoon, triggering a long entry at 3257.60. (The 'reverse' used to fashion the trigger can be found on the 30-min chart, where a=3266.50 on 6/27 at 9:00 a.m.) The pattern, the only one available, could not have produced a losing trade, but it triggered at a time of day when relatively few would have been watching. I have not established a tracking position because no one reported getting long.