One might think manipulating yields on the Ten-Year Note would be beyond the reach, even, of Donald Trump and those who serve him in the shadowy corridors of financial power. And yet, each time the interest rate moves in earnest toward the psychologically hazardous 5% level, it swiftly retreats as though blocked by some unseen force. With the national debt creeping up on $40 trillion and the financialized, high-leverage economy going gangbusters, there is no logical reason why long-term rates should not continue to waft higher instead of stumbling and tumbling as they continue to do. A crucial test is not far off in any case, since a breach of the 4.58% 'p' support shown in the chart that was narrowly avoided last week is still an imminent possibility. If it happens, that would signal downforce capable of pushing rates to the 4.42% target shown. It would provide a breather for a badly overheated economy in which borrowers are in desperate need of respite.
Last week's buying binge pushed this ETF through the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 529.94 with such force that more upside to at least 595.80 is assured. The first thing to notice, however, is that a rally to that number would fall well shy of a new record high. It would also corroborate my suspicion that the bull market begun in 2009 is over, and that tech stocks are leading the implied sea change. Regardless, a pullback to the green line (x=497.01) from last week's high at 547.90 can be bought aggressively using a 'camo' trigger. The technique is described in the six-hour Hidden Pivot Course I've made available in recorded form to all legacy subscribers and newbies who have signed up with Rick's Picks for a full year.
The short squeeze powering this bull market tacked on another week of mechanical buying, leaving little doubt that the 8263.35 target shown will be achieved. Adding to the evidence is that the futures have remained above p=7307.75, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, since touching it for the first time three months ago. Now they've blasted free of it decisively by exceeding p2=7785.00 on Friday. Your trading bias should be bullish but consider it a gift if this vehicle should pull back to 7657.75 before launching anew, since that 'hidden' support can be bottom-fished with a tight 'camo' trigger. The one-off low is not strictly kosher, but if the uptrend exceeds D=8262.25, you can assume it's bound for 8557.50, the target associated with the marquee low at 4832.00 recorded the second week in April.
Microsoft has blown past 'p' midpoint resistance at 449.09 with such force that there can be little doubt the stock will reach the D target at 548.98. MSFT has been an excellent bellwether for the stock market as a whole, and so we should assume the broad averages will rise in its vortex, at least until it reaches the target. The pattern also looks likely to work well for bottom-fishing swoons either to the red line or the green. The initial stop loss for a trade executed at the higher would be at 515.79; and for the lower, 349.19.
Friday's muted rally stalled just a penny from the 78.78 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance shown in the chart. This could hardly have surprised, since none of the wack-os who trade crude could conceivably know what kind of fake rabbit Trump will pull out of his hat over the weekend. By saying the ink was nearly dry on a supposed deal with Iran to open Hormuz shipping lanes, Trump has further eroded his credibility in matters of international diplomacy almost to the vanishing point. Saturday's headlines note an Iranian missile attack on a U.A.E. tanker, news that hardly squares with Trump's bullshit and blather last week about an imminent cease-fire. For my part, I will not even hazard a guess as to whether crude oil traders will greet the new week with a push past 78.78. If they do, it will clear the way to at least 83.33, with a corresponding, economically destructive upsurge in prices at the pump, and, eventually, in the price of virtually everything.
Did gold's bear market end with the 4016 low recorded a month ago? We'll likely have a definitive answer next week if the powerful upthrust of the last two days continues, exceeding the 4465.90 peak shown. That would mean the futures had exceeded two 'external' peaks on the weekly chart without a pullback, indicating that an exceptionally powerful impulse leg is in progress. It would presumably be strong enough to break the back of a bear market begun from a record 5782 last January. The minimum upside target thereupon would be 4819.30, still well shy of the old peak but a good start on it. Check the chat room for precise guidance if the futures should swoon, since that could set up an excellent buying opportunity down near 4200.
As with the current analysis of gold, I've simplified the picture for silver to provide a conclusive forecast with as little noise and as much certitude as possible. The Hidden Pivot pattern is a good one (and masked for proprietary reasons), but I've slightly lowered the bar for a major bullish signal. Rather than stipulate that the futures surpass two 'external' peaks without a pullback, I'll flash the all-go if the uptrend merely pierces p=69.21 decisively the same week it first touches it. Once this has occurred, I will alert subscribers to 'mechanical' buying opportunities on pullbacks, so stay tuned. I am jumping the gun here, like Fox projecting an election winner with only 15% of the vote counted, but I'm confident the benchmarks I've set will give us a reliable, early answer that we can use to avoid dithering and make some hay.
Trading in NYMEX Crude won't start for another hour, so I've had to imagine a pattern to predict how things might turn out. It is a foregone conclusion that quotes will open significantly lower, since Trump, as fully expected, has announced on a Sunday yet another ceasefire. This dog-and-pony show continues to impress because of what I call the "next idiot" theory (which I've explained many times in the chat room). It holds that if there is breaking news which a trader working at 305 Wacker Drive believes will cause his colleagues at 307 Wacker Drive to sell crude contracts, then he, too, is obliged to sell or face an avalanche. This is irrespective of whether anyone actually believes that Trump's weekly, ginned-up announcement about "talks" will cause peace to break out in the region or even ease the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Allowing for the 'next-idiot' effect to determine this afternoon's opening price, I've imagined an initial bar that has Sep Crude trading down to around $81, about $5 or $6 lower than Friday's settlement price. I doubt the selling will be much worse than that, implying the bullish pattern projecting to as high as 91.70 still holds. That is what I expect to happen once it becomes clear by mid-week or so that Trump's cessation of air strikes against Iran has, as we might have expected, achieved nothing. _______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 9:50 p.m.): The futures have come to life in after-hours trading, thrusting to within 12 cents of the 81.34 profit target of an explicitly detailed trade I posted in the chat room early Monday morning. If you held a position after the regular session ended this afternoon, you should be out of at least half of it. The 84.24 'd' target remains viable
Although DaBoyz could easily short-squeeze this gas-bag to new record highs with just a dollop of fake good news, I've presented a chart that is somewhat bearish. The 7266.00 target lies just 3.5% below, and even though the tedious struggle between bulls and bears has yet to achieve it after six weeks, there is no reason to presume it will not be reached eventually. Bottom-fish when the futures get there, but be sure to use a 'camo' trigger, since my merely mentioning the target in print is likely to queer its magic and attract some clowns and Goldman algos. For the record, I have been won over by a strategy used successfully by chat-roomer 'Nick the Greek' that's pretty simple: short this hoax every time it pokes its greasy little snout above the waterline. Nick's stops are wider than I would recommend, but his tactics seem to be working. I have yet to adjust to the shift to a bear market myself and am still bottom-fishing stocks like TSLA out of habit when they are falling like cinder blocks. On Nick's inspiration, though, I hope to come around, and soon. _______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 12:02 p.m.): ES has easily exceeded a minor 'd' resistance at 7598.75, implying it will take shorts to the wire with an assault on June 15's 7648.75 peak. That is also the 'C' high of the bearish pattern projecting down to D=7266 (see above). If the vicious little sonofabitch head-fakes above June 2's record 7693.75, I will do my utmost to nail a shortable top for you. This should be relatively easy, since the clowns, droolers and algos will all be pretty freaked out at those unaccustomed heights
The week-ending, headless-chicken short-squeeze topped ever-so-slightly above June 1's fright-wig peak at 466.32, mainly because that's where a thousand clowns had placed their stop-loss. But let's see if the carnies who manipulate this stock for a living have the moxie to take on a second 'external' peak at 483.74 that was recorded on June 28. I doubt it, but it should be the absolute minimum requirement for taking the rally seriously, since it would generate a bullish impulse leg of daily-chart degree. As things stand, Friday's high recouped 57% of the ground lost since a 555 was achieved a year ago. My guess is that Trump's habitual Sunday afternoon fake-out won't be quite enough to squeeze MSFT above 483.74 in off-hours trading, but even just a small follow-though after the opening bell will. Stay tuned. _______ UPDATE (Aug 3, 9:50 a.m. EDT): The weasels running the Big Carnival's MSFT concession are squeezing last week's earnings report for everything it's worth. They put shorts badly on the ropes Friday, and that is the reason for their success today. The biggest reverse pattern I can identify projects as high as 548.98, just shy of the record 555.45 achieved a year ago. It also yields a p2 at 499.04 with presumptive stopping power. I'll be watching that HP closely, using p2 as a minimum upside projection and shorting there. Currently 490.19.
