Rick’s Picks

MSFT's dip on the opening to the green line triggered a 'mechanical' buy with the potential to reach 387.92. Bulls were halfway there on Thursday when the stock closed above the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 372.25. If it can do it again on Monday, that would make further progress to the d target all but certain.  I have shown only a portion of the bullish pattern for proprietary reasons, but it is an rABC that meets all my rules.  I still expect the stock to fall eventually to 332.67, which implies that this rally should be shorted aggressively at 387.92, albeit with very tight risk control.

June Gold finished the week with a lackluster performance that nonetheless left intact the bullish pattern shown, with a 5144.00 target. The closing price was about midway along the length of a large range that stretched from 4580 to 4825. That seems excessive and could have pleased no one, but it was not especially bearish even though the futures finished the session with a $114 loss. Looking just ahead, a pullback to the green line (X=4382.40) would trigger an appealing 'mechanical' buy, stop 4128.00.

I've used a pattern similar to the one in the latest Gold tout (see above) to project a rally over the near term to at least 86.105. The previous tout implied the futures would already be there, but I don't recall what I was thinking at the time to suggest that the rally would be so steep. It has already triggered a 'mechanical' buy that paid off with a more than $6 leap. However, if the futures should dip to the green line a second time, I'd suggested taking advantage with a bid there and a 61.20 stop-loss. This implies more than $3000 of initial risk per contract, so a small-pattern trigger is strongly recommended to cut that down by as much as 95%.

Two strong rallies last week improved the look of the daily chart, with a 133.49 target that now looks all but certain to be achieved. Thursday's rigged plunge to an intraday low at 116.13 was quickly recouped, as we might have expected in a healthy bull market. It triggered a 'mechanical' buy at the red line, which confirms the bullish outlook for this ETF, a proxy for the shares of gold exploration companies. If GDXJ were to relapse to the green line (x=110.53), be ready with a bid there and a 102.87 stop-loss.

It took the futures several days to get off the launcher following the 'buy' signal noted here a week ago, but by Friday they were on their way to an all but certain rendezvous with the 104.94 target shown. Because investors are obsessed with oil's every move, we can infer that stocks will continue to fall  as energy jitters ratchet higher. The target pattern is very well-formed for reasons I won't go into here, but that means D can be shorted with the tightest possible stop.  Please note that a decisive move through this Hidden Pivot resistance would open a path to as high as 125.48 over the near term, or even to 178.89, a target broached here earlier.

Our week ended with a focus on the bearish, 6328.50 target shown. For reasons that I explained in the chat room, I do not expect this Hidden Pivot support to launch the kind of short squeeze that would put the fear of the lord in the multitudes who by now must be short up to their eyeballs.  However, the pattern is sufficiently clear and compelling, even if somewhat obvious, to deliver a tradeable turn with reasonable precision. As of Friday's close, possible trigger intervals for getting long ranged from 13.00 to 66.25 points, with a middling, third set-up requiring a 28.00 point reversal.  I'll recommend using the 13.00-er, but only with a 'C' low planted in the range 6324.00- 6335.00.  This trade is intended only for subscribers who perfectly understand my instruction. (The tactic is covered in detail in the Hidden Pivot course that is free to most subscribers, including new registrants who recently signed up for a full year.) _______ UPDATE (April 2, 10:51 a.m.):  A Hidden Pivot at 6692.00, about 90 points above, is where I would suggest shorting this bear rally. It is not impregnable, and a rip through it would imply the move is capable of 7030.75. However, I doubt this will happen. Worst case for permabears: a rally to 6780 or so that pulls back to 6522. That would trigger a 'mechanical' buy so juicy that even I would be a buyer.

Microsoft was diddling an important Hidden Pivot support at 355.42 on Friday when bulls were likely saved by the bell. That's because any slippage beneath this 'secondary' support would portend more punishment down to as low as 332.67, the maxed-out 'D' target of the conventional pattern shown. Both numbers have been theoretically in play since mid-February, when  sellers first drove the stock down to the green line (x=400.93).  Because we treat MSFT as our #1 bellwether for the aging bull market, the implications of the stock's easy breach of p=378.18, the midpoint Hidden Pivot, are fraught with significance.  If the stock is going to reverse from here, it will signal it via a booster-stage rally of  7.84 points. However, if the bounce comes off a low beneath 352 (or so), we shouldn't trust it completely. _______ UPDATE (April 1, 10:23): Microsoft is being manipulated higher the old-fashioned way, with short-squeeze gaps on opening bars.  That is why the stock came down so far in the first place, and it will surely do so again, falling to the 332.67 target mentioned above. First, though, it looks likely to achieve will achieve a minimum 387.92 with this short-squeeze rally.  A pullback to 364.42 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, stop 356.57. (Did you know that the 'Last Price' given above corresponds to the price at which the stock was trading when this update was published?  That is true for all of my updates.) 

Five days of tedium could not push April Gold impulsively past the small but significant (i.e., 'look-to-the-left') peak at 4616.30 shown in the chart. That could change for the better with just a small leap, but until it happens there is no reason to give bulls the benefit of the doubt. However, just a little weakness could bring a test of a midpoint Hidden Support at 4282.90 that is associated with a 'D' target at 3964.70 (60-min, A=4736.30 on March 20).  The higher number is where a reversal should occur if bulls are ready to take charge again following a month-long slide from 5434, but either Hidden Pivot can be bottom-fished provided you understand how.  A side note: Bullion has sagged since the start of the war with Iran, but why? Turkey's behavior may hold some answers. Although it has been one of the world's most aggressive sovereign buyers of gold over the past decade, it sold or swapped about 60 tons of gold worth $8 billion in two weeks after the start of the war. Reportedly, this was to support a disinflation strategy that relies on a stable lira. ______ UPDATE for JUNE Gold (March 31, 7:07p.m. ET): The futures have stalled precisely at a 4709,70 'd' target, but a breakout would clear a path to 4890.10, and thence to 5144.00. That last Hidden Pivot should offer precisely tradeable resistance, but its decisive penetration would announce that bulls are back in force.

If Gold was acting coy about its next move, May Silver ended the week looking primed to moved higher. The pattern shown triggered an appealing  'mechanical' buy at the green line (x= 67.434) that should be good for a ride to at least p=73.658 (nearly achieved on Friday), but to as high as 86.105 over the next 2-3 days.  The set-up is 'textbook' enough to suggest that anyone who bought on Thursday is an 80% bet to make money. Sunday's opening is always unpredictable, but if trading begins with a fist-pump through p, you can be confident the move will reach the target more than $6 above.