It took the futures several days to get off the launcher following the 'buy' signal noted here a week ago, but by Friday they were on their way to an all but certain rendezvous with the 104.94 target shown. Because investors are obsessed with oil's every move, we can infer that stocks will continue to fall as energy jitters ratchet higher. The target pattern is very well-formed for reasons I won't go into here, but that means D can be shorted with the tightest possible stop. Please note that a decisive move through this Hidden Pivot resistance would open a path to as high as 125.26 over the near term, or even to 178.89, a target broached here earlier.
Our week ended with a focus on the bearish, 6328.50 target shown. For reasons that I explained in the chat room, I do not expect this Hidden Pivot support to launch the kind of short squeeze that would put the fear of the lord in the multitudes who by now must be short up to the eyeballs. However, the pattern is sufficiently clear and compelling, even if somewhat obvious, to deliver a tradeable turn with reasonable precision. As of Friday's close, possible trigger intervals for getting long ranged from 13.00 to 66.25 points, with a middling, third set-up requiring a 28.00 point reversal. I'll recommend using the 13.00-er, but only with a 'C' low planted in the range 6324.00- 6335.00. This trade is intended only for subscribers who perfectly understand my instruction. (This tactic is covered in detail in the Hidden Pivot course that is free to most subscribers, including new registrants who recently signed up for a full year.)
Microsoft was diddling an important Hidden Pivot support at 355.42 on Friday when bulls were likely saved by the bell. That's because any slippage beneath this 'secondary' support would portend more punishment down to as low as 332.67, the maxed-out 'D' target of the conventional pattern shown. Both numbers have been theoretically in play since mid-February, when sellers first drove the stock down to the green line (x=400.93). Because we treat MSFT as our #1 bellwether for the aging bull market, the implications of the stock's easy breach of p=378.18, the midpoint Hidden Pivot, are fraught with significance. If the stock is going to reverse from here, it will signal it via a booster-stage rally of 7.84 points. However, if the bounce comes off a low beneath 352 (or so), we shouldn't trust it completely.
Five days of tedium could not push April Gold impulsively past the small but significant (i.e., 'look-to-the-left') peak at 4616.30 shown in the chart. That could change for the better with just a small leap, but until it happens there is no reason to give bulls the benefit of the doubt. However, just a little weakness could bring a test of a midpoint Hidden Support at 4282.90 that is associated with a 'D' target at 3964.70 (60-min, A=4736.30 on March 20). The higher number is where a reversal should occur if bulls are ready to take charge again following a month-long slide from 5434, but either Hidden Pivot can be bottom-fished provided you understand how. A side note: Bullion has sagged since the start of the war with Iran, but why? Turkey's behavior may hold some answers. Although it has been one of the world's most aggressive sovereign buyers of gold over the past decade, it sold or swapped about 60 tons of gold worth $8 billion in two weeks after the start of the war. Reportedly, this was to support a disinflation strategy that relies on a stable lira.
If Gold was acting coy about its next move, May Silver ended the week looking primed to moved higher. The pattern shown triggered an appealing 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x= 67.434) that should be good for a ride to at least p=73.658 (nearly achieved on Friday), but to as high as 86.105 over the next 2-3 days. The set-up is 'textbook' enough to suggest that anyone who bought on Thursday is an 80% bet to make money. Sunday's opening is always unpredictable, but if trading begins with a fist-pump through p, you can be confident the move will reach the target more than $6 above.
Like Gold futures, this ETF proxy for junior miners spent the week in timid remission. Although it triggered a theoretical 'buy' signal on Monday, the follow-through failed to reach the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance after four days of flailing. That could chain in a trice, however, presumably with a jump-start from May Silver, which looked ready to rumble when the week ended. As always, a strong push through p would clear a path to the 133.49 'd' target of the pattern shown.
The chart shows the same hopeful, best-case scenario for Silver as the one presented in the Gold tout. The May contract tripped a theoretical buy signal on Friday when it touched the green line, and now it need only push above p=77.99 to tip the odds strongly back in bulls' favor. As is the case in gold, however, and as I have stated, this is not the most likely outcome, and the alternative would be further slippage to at least 56.32. That is the secondary Hidden Pivot of a pattern projecting as low as 42.67 (60m, A=119.20 on Feb 29). ______ UPDATE (Mar 23, 11:03 a.m.): Further slippage overnight to 61.210 has altered the picture. The rally since has tripped a theoretical buy signal at 67.434 that will likely achieve 73.658, s midpoint resistance that could stop bulls in their tracks. However, if they blow past it, you can use 86.105 as a rally target. Also, a pullback to 67.434 from anywhere in the range 76.20-77.60 would trigger a 'mechanical buy at 67.43, stop 61.205. _______ UPDATE March 24, 10:51 p.m.): A gusher of promising news from the President tonight has pushed the futures past a minor 'd' target at 73.535 (60m, a=79.20 on 3/3), putting a bigger pattern in play with a new rally target at 85.90. A pullback first to 67.383 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy at 67.383, stop 61.210. Please note that the trade would carry nearly $31,000 of entry risk per contract, so it is therefore recommended only to those of you who are familiar with 'camouflage' triggers capable of reducing the risk by as much as 95%. They are covered in detail in the Hidden Pivot course I've made available free to most subscribers.
The 6499.50 target I posted in the chat room Friday morning implied that a 100-point drop was coming. It did, almost. I also said the Hidden Pivot support would need to show some pluck to hold a full-blown bear market at bay, at least for a while. We didn't get the test we were looking for because the pattern proved too obvious and its target got front-run with ES 60 points above it; however, a test is coming nonetheless. Stay focused this week on my magic number, and don't accept anything less than a rally above C=6903.00 as minimal evidence the bull market is still breathing.
I've left plenty of room for another big leg down, but also for a test of a promising midpoint Hidden Pivot support slightly below, at 378.18. It cannot but reveal how much more selling remains to be done in a bear market that has already seen MSFT's value fall by 31% from the record 555 achieved last July. If the stock continues to fall to the 333.67 target, that would equate to a 40% drop from the top. There is an additional number worthy of our attention: 355.16. That is the 'D' target of a smaller pattern capable of producing a lasting bottom, and it should be used as a minimum downside projection for the near term.
The pattern shown is not of the bluest pedigree because of its obviousness. However, it is almost certain to be useful if you plan to trade the big swings or merely want to know with confidence how oil prices are likely to behave in the weeks and months ahead. The chart is a composite, so don't expect the levels to perform exactly. However, even so-so patterns have midpoint Hidden Pivots that 'work', so we should take last week's stall precisely at p as a sign of this particular pattern's reliability. We don't know yet whether the futures are about to blow past p=116.89, but if they do, take it as a sign they are not merely capable of reaching a record 178.89, but that this is likely. Also, although a relapse to the green line (x=85.89) would likely produce a global sigh of relief, from our perspective it would set up a juicy 'mechanical' buy, stop 54.88, that implies yet another big price leap capable of incapacitating the global economy. Bloomberg has quoted the usual Wall Street shills as saying crude prices would have to hit a minimum $128 and stay there for a while to bring on a recession, but these guys are such liars and morons that nothing they say can be trusted. The same could be said of 90% of the news and commentary emanating from Bloomberg, which is the most Trump-deranged of all the major news outlets. They really hate the guy, and everything they report on him has an extremely negative slant, even to the point of their hoping Iran wins the war. _______ UPDATE (Mar 23, 2:06 p.m.): I hadn't expected crude's psychotic swings to touch the green line (85.89) so soon, but they did, triggering a 'mechanical' buy there that could have produced
