Traders spent the entire week screwing the pooch, demonstrating that bulls and bears are equally clueless at the moment. It suggests that the coming bear rally will likely be a tedious affair, about as much fun to watch as the 1893 New Orleans matchup between two determined lightweight boxers, Andy Bowen and Jack Burke. It went 110 rounds before the ref mercifully called it a draw. Will the SEC step in and freeze stocks at a permanently high plateau? My hunch is that the longer this slugfest lasts, the more likely the broad averages will make marginal new highs before a full-blown, take-no-prisoners bear emerges. More immediately, however, you should use 5845.75, the Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart (inset), as a minimum upside objective when the new week begins. It will remain viable as long as traders, entranced by Wall Street's fun-house mirror, don't stop themselves out with a stupid, pointless feint beneath last week's 5650.75 low.
MSFT's glory days may not return soon, but the polio-inflicted rally begun two weeks ago from a shell-shocked low at 377 has at least a little farther to go. Specifically, a Hidden Pivot resistance at 398.06 beckons and can be used as a minimum upside target for the next 2-3 days. A tradable pullback is likely there, but the effect could be muted by my billboarding it on the front page. (Please note: It is visible only to paying subscribers.) Pivoteers can hitch a ride coming and/or going, but I'd suggest a tightly constructed 'camo' trigger for the short.
TLT launched sharply higher from within 8 cents of the 89.47 Hidden Pivot I flagged here two weeks ago. The thrust generated a strong impulse leg on the intraday charts and established a trigger for a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=90.61). Friday's low at 90.62 missed by a penny, but the signal will remain viable. The implied 89.37 stop-loss is too wide to be practical, so I suggest using a 'camo' trigger to get long. That means dropping to the 15-minute chart or less when 90.61 is touched and fashioning a reverse-pattern set-up with a corresponding entry trigger.
The small poke through our longstanding Hidden Pivot target at 3040.90 implies prices will continue higher, notwithstanding occasional shakedowns by the sleazeball who control bullion markets. Although I recently billboarded an ambitious target at 3533 to lift your imagination, a more immediate prospect is 3198.70, the 'D' target of a smaller pattern. A pullback to 2932.80 would trigger a 'mechanical' buy signal, but the 2844.00 stop-loss is unacceptably large. Use a 'camouflage' trigger for this one, meaning an entry set-up crafted from 15-minute charts or lower once 2932.80 has been touched.
The slight dip beneath the 54.84 midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown implies more retracement is needed to set up the next big push to a presumptive 60.62. The first place you could look for a turn is 54.44, a minor support given here last week. Beneath it lies prospective support at p2=53.44, the 'secondary' pivot; or a worst-case 52.03. There are two additional bull-market targets that I mentioned here earlier. They lie, respectively, at 72.73 and 111.59.
Bitcoin has gone nowhere since I predicted a fall to at least 68,233, or possibly 54,848. I'm going to substitute a less dramatic scenario, since I expect this symbol to rally along with the broad averages in the weeks ahead. Accordingly, you can use the 80,212 midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart as a worst-case downside target for the new week. It can be bottom-fished aggressively with a stop-loss at 79,890.
There is little doubt GDXJ will soon achieve the 57.17 target shown. Is that all there is, some might ask. Not by a longshot. Here's a bigger picture that shows upside potential to as high as 72.73. More immediately, the 60.62 'secondary' pivot looks like a solid bet to get hit. A puzzle, though, is what could happen after 72.23, a number that would exhaust conventional targets. It turns out that a reverse pattern begun from 84.72 in Feb 2010 allows for upside to as high as 111.59 (!) The corresponding midpoint resistance lies at 64.23, and it roughly coincides with a peak at 65.95 recorded in August 2020, implying double resistance at that level. That is a good thing, since it will create a 'magnetic' challenge for bulls to overcome. _______ UPDATE (Mar 19, 10:04 a.m.): After topping yesterday less than 1% above my longstanding target at 57.17, GDXJ has come down hard, trading as low as 55.70 this morning. If you are looking to augment a long position, stake out a new one, or perhaps close out a covered write initiated near 57.17, you should do so at 54.44, my minimum downside target for this correction if a Hidden Pivot support at 54.84 gives way. Worst case would be 52.03, a ‘hidden’ support where you can back up the truck to replenish your inventory of shares (or naked-short puts if you trade aggressively). Here's a chart to help orient you.
Friday's 101-point thrust came within less than a point of fulfilling the 5649.50 target I'd flagged in the chat room an hour before the day began. I'd said it would take much more than that to produce a bear rally worthy of the name. How much more? Probably another 300 points before bears who have bet the 'don't' line would start feeling queasy. The sassy little pisher that capped the week didn't surpass a single distinctive peak. Still, that's how all memorable bear rallies begin, greeted with skepticism the moment they bolt from the gate. Let's see if short-covering bears have the energy to lift this brick above 3/12's 5675.00 peak as the new week begins. Expect this to happen earlier in the session if at all, since that is when the sleazeball who control the game have the most control over the order book. _______ UPDATE (Mar 17, 12:53 p.m. EDT): The June contract's timid rally this morning just missed taking out a peak at 5726.75 equivalent to the one given above for the March futures. It will do so shortly, however, and will then face a more challenging and less obvious resistance at exactly 5740.25. That is the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of this pattern, which allows a bear rally to as high as 5920.50, a back-up-the-truck number for getting short. You can try shorting 5740.25 as well, provided you can handle a 'camo' trigger on the lesser charts. Risk no more than 3.50 points on the initial stop-loss.
MSFT is the unwitting captive of the pattern shown, with immediate upside potential to 398.06. Judging from the ease with which short-covering bears bulldozed the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 387.49, they should have little trouble inadvertently boosting the stock to the target Monday or Tuesday. If they are still feeling their oats, the next logical price objective would be 414.57, the 'd' target of a larger reverse pattern. Its corresponding midpoint resistance lies at 395.74, so a precise stall there would validate the pattern and increase the odds of an equally precise, shortable top if and when 413.80 is reached.
Expect ten-year rates to continue ratcheting lower, at least to the 3.959% 'secondary pivot' shown in the chart. The breach of p=4.242% was not decisive, and rates have yet to close for two consecutive weekly bars below it. However, the initial downside penetration reached the 'sweet spot' between p and p2, implying that an uptick in rates to the green line (x=4.526%) would be a short sale. The chart is inconclusive about whether d=3.675% will be achieved, but an overshoot of p2 would shorten the odds. It is my maximum downside target, nonetheless.
