The Morning Line

Skittish about the stock market's manic climb?  Consider moving some of your savings into T-bills, which are currently yielding around 4.25%. You could do worse. Some of my friends are reluctant to take e ven a little money off the table because 2024 was such an incredible year for them.  One is a retired lawyer who racked up a nearly $500,000 gain in Nvidia.  She sold enough shares to buy a condo in Palm Beach, but her portfolio is otherwise unchanged and showing a return of about 40% for the year. She and her financial advisor are confident her portfolio will do equally well next year. Both of my siblings had a similar experience, but they have since moved most of their nest eggs into Treasury bonds and bills.  It has been an extraordinary year for them, and for millions of Baby Boomers who owned stocks, real estate or both. Who could blame them for thinking that the bull market begun in 2009 might have another year or two left in it? On the other hand, valuations are at their highest levels ever, and a real estate downturn seems all but certain because mortgage rates are stuck at levels too high to attract first-time buyers. And few would deny the stock market is out of its mind, a beast on steroids; we all sense this in our bones. Consider the way speculators have shrugged off ominous tariff news. Trump has threatened our two biggest trading partners, Mexico and Canada, with protectionist levies that would punish U.S. auto manufacturers in particular and cause grocery prices to surge anew. The President-elect also seems hell-bent on implementing immigration restrictions that would tighten the supply of workers, particularly for unskilled jobs. He's Bluffing, Right? Toward the end of the Roaring Twenties, when Congress was

Let's hope Musk and Ramaswamy have been paying close attention to David Stockman's ten-part series on how to cut the U.S. budget before America spends its way into bankruptcy. Stockman was Reagan's budget director in 1981-85 and eminently qualified to spell out the tough reforms needed to force the U.S. to live within its means. He is no fan of Trump, to put it mildly, but he sees the Musk/Ramaswamy 'DOGE' project as America's last chance to get spending under control. Musk famously asserted during the campaign that he could cut $2 trillion annually from a total federal budget of around $6 trillion. Although we've come to expect big things and even the impossible from Musk, in this case, even with the intrepid Ramaswamy aboard, DOGE may have bitten off more than it can chew. Ironically, it is Stockman's long, detailed list of cuts that makes Musk's goal seem farfetched if not impossible. Stockton admits that eliminating nearly every U.S. department and agency you can think of, and laying off more than half-a-million government employees at the outset, would scarcely dent deficit spending that's been pushing the national debt toward $40 trillion at a rate of more than $3 trillion per year. The list of 16 agencies Trump should axe as soon as he takes office in January includes the FBI, DEA, BATF, NHTSA, Legal Services Corp. and the Department of Education.  Additionally, says Stockman, DOGE should shoot for 50% staff reductions in these fat cows: the SEC (2,250 workers, for savings of $360 million); FCC (750 workers, for savings of $120 million: FAA (22,500 workers, for savings of $3.6 billion); IRS (41,500 workers, for savings of $6.64 billion); National Labor Relations Board (800 workers, for savings of $130 million); Office of Personnel Management (1,250 staff, for savings of $314

Have you heard from "Cleo Kenmille" or "Caroline Johnson"? If not, consider yourself fortunate. Those are pseudonyms used by a crew of shitbags who work out of bucket shops that lie beyond the reach of international law. Their job is to steal money from you or anyone else who is familiar with PayPal, the online banker. Paypal itself is unconnected to the scam, although their familiar logo is used to entice the unwary (see above). The header on the scammer's email -- "A small reminder from Cleo Kenmille" -- should arouse the suspicion of anyone who is even slightly wised-up about phishing scams. Since when did banks start sending out emails featuring in the headline the specific name of an individual to whom you or I supposedly owe money? This email did, though, explicitly identifying "Cleo Kenmille" as the aggrieved party. The implicit message is: "Pay her now!" Or...what? Although that question begs a stupid answer, someone might absent-mindedly fall for this grift, since the email cautions the recipient to call 888 232-0407 if he or she doesn't recognize Cleo's name. A friend of mine dialed the number and was connected to a surly man with an Indian accent. He somehow persuaded my friend to download an app that promised to "get this mess straightened out". Next thing you know, she was logged onto a phony PayPal site that listed several bitcoin transactions, including one for $98,000. Nervous and distressed, she hung up. But not before she'd given the thieves enough information to enable them to generate a very real message in her Charles Schwab account concerning a "pending" $130,000 wire transfer of her savings to a bank in Dubai. My friend immediately instructed Schwab to lock the account, changed a bunch of passwords, then waited for the other shoe

The headline on last week's commentary asked whether it might be morning in America, but the left's combative reaction to the drubbing they received on November 5 suggests we could be closer to high noon. We may know soon, since the forces of darkness are going full-tilt against Matt Gaetz, Trump's choice for Attorney General.  Wikipedia, while discreetly neglecting to mention Hitler, trotted out a laundry list of dubious citations implying that Gaetz, a Florida Congressman, is a right-wing crazy, sex pervert and a deadbeat. In their dreams, perhaps, for he is actually an avenging angel, intent on rooting out every rat and cockroach in the Justice Department and ending the U.S. Government's increasingly common practice of arresting and imprisoning people because of their conservative political views. It would look suspicious if Deep State were to take a potshot at Gaetz after failing twice to bring down Mr. Trump with bullets.  Whatever their plan, they'll have the pathetically diminished but as-yet-unhumbled voice of the New York P.O.S. Times to cheer them on. Here's the editorial page with a delusional take on the election that makes clear why the Gray Lady might not even be around in ten years:  “Many Democrats were considering how to navigate a dark future, with the party unable to stop Mr. Trump from carrying out a right-wing transformation of American government. Others turned inward, searching for why the nation rejected them. They spoke about misinformation and the struggle to communicate the party’s vision in a diminished news environment inundated with right-wing propaganda.”  Humble Beginnings On Wall Street, Trumpmania experienced a mild setback last week. However, because investors are too revved up to have second thoughts about anything, the feeble decline over five consecutive days should be attributed to the pull of gravity. Stocks were due for

I've been confidently anticipating the Mother of All Tops since, like, around 1975, but this week I decided to go wholeheartedly with the flow. The result, technically speaking, is a robustly optimistic S&P target at 7644.50. This might not be what permabears want to hear, but it will leave bulls sufficient room to deal with their psychotic delusions once and for all before boom turns to bust. The rally would amount to 1600 points, or 27%, and come on top of an extraordinarily steep rally begun two years ago that has pushed valuations to near-record levels. Some would say the relentless uptrend has discounted whatever miracles Donald Trump could conceivably produce for the economy. Putting that question aside, his bullish impact already on the mood of America cannot be underestimated. For starters, Trump's plan to dismember Deep State sounds do-able, especially if Republicans retain control of the House. Click here to read all about how heads are actually going to roll. There is no precedent for taking on the embedded bureaucrats who have worked tirelessly for decades to wreck everything that is good about America. Sending these traitors to the gallows, so to speak, promises to be at the heart of Trump's domestic agenda. It will be interesting to see whether the ideologues who invent the news at the New York Times and the Washington Post eventually concede that Deep State even exists. They purport that it is a creature of right-wing paranoia, even though they have aggressively supported Deep State's reign of terror editorially for decades. Term-Limit 'Bonus' The President-elect's ten-point plan even includes full-on support for term limits. This issue should have become a bipartisan favorite, but for the fact that the left has been too busy hating Trump to get behind it. Now, it would seem, the

  [The author of this week's commentary is an old friend who worked his way up from exchange-floor clerk to commercial real estate mogul over the time I've known him. He has demonstrated remarkable timing, courage and patience as an investor, buying commercial real estate at the bottom of the 2007-08 crash and holding it until two years ago, when an even bigger crash that shows no sign of abating began. He also started accumulating a large position in physical silver as it fell from around $30 in early 2021 to $17 a year-and-a-half later. He recently cashed out his entire position at upwards of $33 an ounce, roughly doubling his stake. Now he is striking out in a radical new direction, deploying a large portion of his sizable gains in the most unpopular investment of the day, Treasury paper. Although no investor is infallible, my friend has never had a misstep with a series of all-in bets. Coincidentally, or perhaps not, Comex Gold has fallen nearly $60 after coming within $1.60 of a 2803.40 target I started drum-rolling in September, when prices were $300 lower. Is the top in?  It's too early to tell, but even if higher prices are coming, anyone who has held bullion during its steep run-up since last October could not go far wrong by taking a partial profit at these levels. RA ]  Each time a massive wealth transfer occurs, it is caused not by an upward explosion in asset prices, but by crushing deflation such as we experienced in 2007-8.  It's about to happen again, and not with a puny, garden-variety bear-market or recession, but with the epic crash that we have all known was coming sooner or later. The list of possible catalysts boggles the imagination, to wit: a politically wrenching transition

You can always tell when portfolio managers are hard at play, immersed in an epic circle jerk that has become more tediously familiar with each passing week. And so it went on Friday, as money migrated for no discernible reason from certain, temporarily disfavored stocks to flavor-of-the-day hotties.  It seemed almost as though the chimpanzees who purport to manage everyone's money were on a conference call that morning, scripting a narrative simple enough for Jim Cramer to shill to the legions of widows and pensioners addicted to his show. The Dow was down more than 300 points at its lows, even as the lunatic-sector stocks -- you know them as the idiotically misnamed 'Magnificent Seven' -- winked at the thrashing their poor cousins were getting on less sexy exchanges.  The Naz was borne aloft as always by light volume and timid resistance. Bears evidently were too gutless to resist the uptrend, which in recent weeks has become increasingly confident of a Trump victory. 4% Above Sits Trouble Even so, there is a palpable feeling that the stock market has been nutso for so long that it's overdue for a sea change. That could mean irrational exuberance will peak on or around election day. But Mr Market could also surprise with a rally that turns even steeper than the one that has prop-washed the flesh from sane observers and skeptics. So which? The chart above makes a compelling case for something in-between. The 6102 S&P target lies 256 points, or 4.4%, above Friday's close. It would not be as large a gain in points as occurred in August or September. However, if the top were to coincide with the November 5 election, the entire gain would have occurred in just seven trading days. That looks like a good bet, but I

Wall Street has gone all-in for Trump, piling up such extravagant gains in the last few weeks that one might wonder what bold miracles investors expect of him. More likely, unfortunately, is that within a year or two of taking office, he will be overwhelmed by the collapse of a financial bubble that required only the hubris of America's promised return to greatness to set it in motion. Let's hope Mr. Trump gets a chance to clean house first, since Washington is a rat's nest of corruption and plots to bring down America. In the meantime, there is no arguing that the rampaging stock market has got it wrong in predicting that Harris, along with the malignant political philosophy and crackpot schemes she represents, will be overwhelmingly repudiated by voters on November 5. With a gusher of mail-in ballots already pouring in and millions of illegals ready to lend their signatures to the Democrats, it could take weeks or longer to adjudicate the results. Regardless, Trump is riding a wave so powerful that even if the Democrats double the cheating that won them the White House in 2020, they will still come up short. Liberals should listen to Harris's recent interview on Fox with Bret Baier to understand why she can't possibly win. She comes across as so empty and insipid that a conservative could almost wax nostalgic for Hillary's evil cunning and brass cojones. 'A Small Price to Pay' The biggest problem Trump will inherit lies in the Middle East, not Ukraine. He and Putin are neither friends nor enemies but seem to respect each other. This cannot be said of jihadis Trump must confront and what remains of their leadership. Israel has wiped out the terrorists' command structure, and we should expect them to try desperately to settle

[I can’t stomach news reports that take Kamala Harris’s candidacy seriously, especially articles suggesting with brazen implausibility that she is polling dead-even with Trump in some important swing states. Fortunately for those creeped out by all the tilted campaign coverage, my colleague James Howard Kunstler has compressed everything you need to know about the election into a bold, Menckenesque essay that will dazzle you with its insightfulness. He offers three scenarios, two of which could bring America to the brink of civil war. Fortunately, the third, a Trump landslide, seems the most likely and would give Americans a chance to snuff Deep State for good before it can recover from the blow.  With Jim’s kind permission, here is Kamala Unwinding, his latest Clusterfuck Nation essay on substack.  RA] *** “. . . we are facing a catastrophic collapse of governance. With democracy reduced to a tragedy or a farce (probably both things). . . .” — Ugo Bardi <<<<< >>>>> “As the US increasingly resembles ancient Rome, being president is more and more dangerous. Something around 35 emperors met violent deaths, most from people in and around their courts. In other words, members of the Roman Deep State. An ugly situation is brewing in and around Washington DC.” — Doug Casey ***** Don’t kid yourself: Kamala Harris does not want to be President of the United States. She doesn’t even want the ceremonial stuff, the incessant shuffling from one photo op to the next, the tedious Easter egg rolls, the prayer meetings, the turkey pardonings, the tiresome state banquets for men in strange headgear who are unfamiliar with using the fork and knife, and forbidden to sip chardonnay. . . . It’s obvious she has been played for a chump, that she was sandbagged into play-acting “the candidate” by an