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GDXJ launched from the red line (p=46.27) with such gusto that there can be little doubt it will reach D=48.58, probably  early in the week. The move actualized a 'mechanical' buy off a low that lay well above a textbook stop-loss at 45.50. If it gains momentum, we could see a test of the 51.03 peak recorded on December 11 sometime in February. Anything above 48.58 will put a 51.65 target in play. That is the secondary Hidden Pivot tied to A=42.51 on Sep 6. The midpoint HP of the pattern lies at 48.39, so expect discernible resistance there, too.

The March contract first signaled a move to d=32.38 more than a month ago, on December 20. It has been a brutal slog since, lacking the brio we've seen lately in gold. Even so, it's difficult to imagine the futures not getting there, probably early in the week. A decisive pop through the Hidden Pivot would mitigate the sluggish feel of the chart, setting silver up for a less labored push toward December 12's 33.33 peak, and thence to the towering external peak at 35.53 recorded on October 22.

There are smaller reverse patterns we could use to clock the latest down cycle, but we'll go with the biggest, since we've grown accustomed to 20-point swings in crude, the global carnival midway's featured attraction.  The chart implies minimum downside to p=72.57, although lesser patterns would yield p supports at, respectively, 75.57 (Friday's low) and 72.84. All can be bottom-fished with a tight rABC trigger. Just to be on the record, I'll note that the D target of the big pattern is 64.36. We'll be better able to assess the odds of this Hidden Pivot being reached once we've seen how the futures interact with p=72.57.

The top of TLT's leap last week fell a crucial dime shy of an 'external' peak at 88.28, spelling possible trouble for the first turnaround attempt since November. With a so-so 'mechanical' buy in prospect when the pullback touches x=86.25, we'll give the recovery the benefit of the doubt. The picture would brighten if the move off x reaches p=87.61 within a day or two.  That would shorten the odds of a further run-up to d=90.32, but a slightly higher would be needed to clear a second 'external' peak at 88.91 from 12/20. _______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 10:38 a.m.): TLT's big and probably phony leap this morning conspicuously failed to surpass any prior peaks. We'll leave our benchmark for the real McCoy at 88.91.

I still expect Bitcoin to notch one or two more record highs on the hourly chart, but they will likely be the dying gasp of the bull market that began in 2009. There is reason to doubt that the broad averages will be swept up in this fetid blast of flatulence. That would create a technical divergence of sorts, but we'll leave it to Microsoft, a peerless market bellwether, to help us gauge its significance. For now, the white-shoed crime syndicate that manipulates the stock for a living is doing its utmost to push MSFT above July's record 468.35. That's 5.5% north of Friday's close, a spread the stock is capable of covering in a mere week. However, it will require a short-covering panic to first punch through the layered peak at 456 that MSFT created in December. Realize that short covering is the main source of buying power in all bull markets. The cash that portfolio managers throw haphazardly at stocks helps keep them buoyant. However, only bears threatened with potentially ruinous margin calls can muster the kind of urgent buying that is capable of pushing the broad averages past heavy seams of supply. To make this happen, DaBoyz have always employed the same trick: pulling their bids overnight so that a stock falls low enough to exhaust sellers. With no supply weighing on the opening, the Masters of the Universe simply step aside, lending explosive power to even a smattering of buy orders entered just ahead of the bell. 300 Chickens The result is shown in the chart.  Over the last two weeks, Microsoft has begun the day significantly higher than the previous day's close mp fewer than three times. Almost no stock changed hands in these gaps, and yet they accounted for $35, or nearly 100%, of

Is this move for real?  I doubt it, but we'll let the chart tell us what to think. So far, last Wednesday's bear-trap opening looks only superficially impressive, since the follow-through failed to get past the 87.61 midpoint resistance (p=87.61) shown in the chart. TLT is a lock-up to reach it, but the upthrust would still need to vault an 'external' peak at 88.28 recorded on December 3 to demonstrate staying power. A decisive move through p would shorten the odds that d=90.32 will be reached while also lending credibility to the rally. If it is more than just flash-in-the-pan, performance measured against this pattern cannot but tell us the story.

We've come to expect crude's rallies to go nowhere, implying they will tend to reverse before breaking out. This one came close, though, before it smacked into a voodoo number that sent it reeling. The reversal occurred just a hair short of the watershed top at 81.53 recorded in June 2022. The long-term picture remains bullish nonetheless, and it's only a matter of when, not if, crude pushes above 81.53.  So why have quotes held stubbornly above $65 for the last three years?  Because it's a dangerous world, would be my guess.

The chart shows a possible path to as high as 6704.25, about 11% above current levels. Although it would seem to flout the solidly bearish implications of a longer-term SPX chart I presented here recently, the two can be reconciled by allowing most immediately for a hard selloff to the green line. That would set the stage for a powerful rally, although not necessarily one that would reach the D target. We'll worry about that when the time comes, but anyone who has watched dozens of 'mechanical' trades unfold in various time frames will see nothing unusual in the way I've drawn this chart. To avoid muddling the two scenarios, let me note that the more bearish one looks like a 70% shot, meaning this is probably THE top, even if it becomes a raggedy one.

Get Microsoft right, as I continue to remind you, and your forecast for the stock market can't go far wrong. The tech giant is among the most valuable companies in the world, with extraordinary profit margins tied to an 80% market share in operating systems. The subscription-based revenue model the company has put in place over the last decade is built to withstand a severe economic downturn. And as long as the shares continue to make new highs regularly, it's safe to assume the stock market will, too.  The trouble is, MSFT hasn't made a new high in six months, raising the possibility it has entered a bear market. This would have occurred last summer when shares topped at 468 on July 5.  The steep plunge that followed over the next 30 days took the stock down $83, or about 18%. That's two percentage points shy of a statistical bear market, although investors who have stuck by Microsoft - i.e., every portfolio manager on earth -- would find scant consolation in this statistic. Still, most of them probably have little doubt that new all-time highs await, and they could be right. But a chart stretching back to 2023 suggests persistent distribution, along with ponderous supply that has prevented a run-up to new heights. The chart would take on a rosier look, however, if the stock were to pop just 22 points, or 5%, surpassing an important peak at 455 recorded less than a month ago. MSFT could easily do that in a week, and we should not bet heavily against it. What About Bitcoin? A second, nettlesome concern for bears who have already placed their bets is the feisty performance of Bitcoin. Like Microsoft, it appeared to have made a very important top a month ago when it hit a