With its 'locked' point 'a' low, the pattern shown looks reliable for our purposes, whether trading or forecasting. It is not a healthy sign that the rally off the 44.76 low recorded on November 14 failed on the first attempt to reach the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 49.17. Bulls could still pull it off, but if GDXJ dips below C=44.76, negating the pattern, that would be more than a mild discouragement. The weakness so far is especially dispiriting because of the power of the impulse leg that took GDXJ quickly from 46.71 to 55.58, a 20% move, in mid-October. _______ UPDATE (Dec 9, 9:17 a.m. EST): This morning's gap through p=49.17 has guaranteed that the rally will reach D=53.58, at least. Be prepared for a stall there.
The chart shown (inset) substitutes a single target for two at, respectively, 107,670 and 119,253 that were given here last week. They will remain viable in theory, but it will be simpler to use a single target that would become a lock-up if and when the Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance is decisively exceeded. I have blanked out the Hidden Pivot levels for p, p2 and D because they looked too useful to share with outsiders. To reproduce the chart with the coordinates and precise levels, combine the visual information in the thumbnail chart with data I posted in the chat room at 2:00 a.m. Sunday morning. _______ UPDATE (Dec 6): If you're updating the chart, add in a low at 92,091 on Thursday that provided a textbook opportunity to get long 'mechanically' at the green line (x=93,344) for a so-far $8500 ride. Meanwhile, the target (1xx,343.54) I posted last Saturday at 2:20 a.m. remains not just valid, but downright enticing.
The big pattern shown in the inset is too ambitious to frame the so-far timid gyrations that have lifted T-Bonds from their bear-market low. However, I have used it anyway because lesser charts magnify TLT's indecisiveness even more. Regardless, the gyrations have triggered a theoretical 'buy' signal that will require a follow-through to at least p=116.27 for validation, TLT is tradable in the meantime, but only by way of short-term signals on the intraday charts. A breach of c=82.42 would be discouraging news for the few bond bulls who have bucked the tide, although not necessarily for those who have been waiting for a washout to load up the truck.
DXY's sharp poke on Friday through p=107.55, the midpoint Hidden Pivot, implies the rally is very likely to reach the pattern's 108.98 target. This symbol is not optionable, but you can trade the futures contract by interpolating my targets. It is encouraging to see bullion strengthen with the dollar rampaging higher. Its potential on DXY's long-term chart is to 119.37, or 124.82 if any higher (monthly chart, A= 89.54 on 5/31/21). A move of that magnitude would put enormous strain on all who owe dollars, and a ruinous deflation would likely be the result. This would occur irrespective of the level of nominal interest rates, since it is the real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) burden of debt that matters, not the marquee number.
I've always treated MSFT as an infallible bellwether. My narrow, if not to say obsessive, focus has served us well, since MSFT has stayed consistently a step ahead of the broad averages, and even ahead of other stocks in the lunatic sector (i.e., the atrociously misnamed Magnificent Seven). But the long bull market has not conditioned us to think that when MSFT acts like crap for an entire year, as it has, that it is signaling a possible end to the bull market. This I will infer, however, implying that the failure to produce an easy 'mechanical' winner after falling to the green line on November 18 is further evidence of a waning bull. This observation would be strengthened by a dip below C=405.57 without having first achieved D=435.90. The target and pattern will remain viable as long as 405.57 is not breached.
Last week's prediction missed the turn, even if expectations for physical gold were more bullish. The week began with a manic leap past x=46.97, which made more upside to at least p=49.17 an odds-on bet. Don't expect an easy move through this midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, though, since both the pattern and the location of p will make it hard as rock. It will take a two-day close above p, or an intraday move surpassing it by perhaps 50 cents, to ensure further progress toward p2=51.38, or even d=53.58. If and when p has been decisively exceeded, a swoon to x=46.97, however unlikely, would be a back-up-the-truck spot to get long 'mechanically'.
Crude's rallies have failed so reliably at p that I've stretched the pattern a bit to provide some upside targets if it should break loose this time. More likely is that the January contract will hit p, noodle around for a few days, then resumes the weakness that has characterized this commodity since July. A retracement to the green line would not necessarily beckon a 'mechanical' buy. If this vehicle mildly surprises by continuing higher, I would still expect price action over the next few months to fall within the range $68-$75. Of course, that is barring a geopolitical shock that would push quotes to $80 or higher. ______ UPDATE (Nov 29): The futures performed even worse last week than my dismal forecast had anticipated: first by failing by 46 cents to reach the red line (p=71.97), and then by staying aloft for barely more than a day at the top of the rally. Let's embrace the good news: 1) the sleazeballs who rig the oil markets had little buoyancy to work with, and 2) gas prices will be coming from lower lows the next time the bad guys goose quotes on the flimsiest pretext. ______ UPDATE (Dec 7): Is yet another test of support coming at 66.32, the point 'C' low of the faintly bullish pattern shown in the inset? It sure looks that way, and it's hard to get interested, never mind excited. Zzzzzzzzzzz.
Have you heard from "Cleo Kenmille" or "Caroline Johnson"? If not, consider yourself fortunate. Those are pseudonyms used by a crew of shitbags who work out of bucket shops that lie beyond the reach of international law. Their job is to steal money from you or anyone else who is familiar with PayPal, the online banker. Paypal itself is unconnected to the scam, although their familiar logo is used to entice the unwary (see above). The header on the scammer's email -- "A small reminder from Cleo Kenmille" -- should arouse the suspicion of anyone who is even slightly wised-up about phishing scams. Since when did banks start sending out emails featuring in the headline the specific name of an individual to whom you or I supposedly owe money? This email did, though, explicitly identifying "Cleo Kenmille" as the aggrieved party. The implicit message is: "Pay her now!" Or...what? Although that question begs a stupid answer, someone might absent-mindedly fall for this grift, since the email cautions the recipient to call 888 232-0407 if he or she doesn't recognize Cleo's name. A friend of mine dialed the number and was connected to a surly man with an Indian accent. He somehow persuaded my friend to download an app that promised to "get this mess straightened out". Next thing you know, she was logged onto a phony PayPal site that listed several bitcoin transactions, including one for $98,000. Nervous and distressed, she hung up. But not before she'd given the thieves enough information to enable them to generate a very real message in her Charles Schwab account concerning a "pending" $130,000 wire transfer of her savings to a bank in Dubai. My friend immediately instructed Schwab to lock the account, changed a bunch of passwords, then waited for the other shoe
It's tempting to think in round numbers like the pundits who shill this hoax, but a mere $100,000 is not where bitcoin is going next. From a Hidden Pivot perspective, it appears nearly certain to achieve the 107,670 target shown in the chart, or 119,253 if any higher. The same bozos like to throw out absurdities like $500,000, or $1 million, but why stop there? The true believers who have stayed with bitcoin since it changed hands for a dime a copy (Oh yes, it did!) don't have limits, so let's not rain on their parade. As for the rest of us, I'd suggest taking these Hidden Pivot targets seriously because nothing goes up forever and because, in my estimation, one or the other Hidden Pivot resistance has an excellent chance of capping the literally insane rally that has made bitcoin the speculative sensation of the digital era.
The Trump rally reversed sharply after failing to achieve the secondary pivot (p2=6068.73) of the pattern shown. This is not a healthy sign, even if a 'mechanical' buy at the green line, stop 5725.50, looks very likely to produce a profit. That implies the futures will rebound to at least p= 5954.42 after falling to 5840.10, even if they don't eventually reach the pattern's 'D' target at 6183.04. The foregoing will have no bearing on the viability of the ambitious 7644.50 bull market target featured in last week's commentary. The E-Mini S&Ps' fall would have to exceed 3502.00 (!) to invalidate it. However, last week's developments demand that we pay diligent attention to lesser corrective patterns such as the one currently in progress. If there is a fatal weakness creeping into the long-term bull market, it will show itself first in ABCD patterns of minor degree.
