Last week's prediction missed the turn, even if expectations for physical gold were more bullish. The week began with a manic leap past x=46.97, which made more upside to at least p=49.17 an odds-on bet. Don't expect an easy move through this midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, though, since both the pattern and the location of p will make it hard as rock. It will take a two-day close above p, or an intraday move surpassing it by perhaps 50 cents, to ensure further progress toward p2=51.38, or even d=53.58. If and when p has been decisively exceeded, a swoon to x=46.97, however unlikely, would be a back-up-the-truck spot to get long 'mechanically'.
Crude's rallies have failed so reliably at p that I've stretched the pattern a bit to provide some upside targets if it should break loose this time. More likely is that the January contract will hit p, noodle around for a few days, then resumes the weakness that has characterized this commodity since July. A retracement to the green line would not necessarily beckon a 'mechanical' buy. If this vehicle mildly surprises by continuing higher, I would still expect price action over the next few months to fall within the range $68-$75. Of course, that is barring a geopolitical shock that would push quotes to $80 or higher. ______ UPDATE (Nov 29): The futures performed even worse last week than my dismal forecast had anticipated: first by failing by 46 cents to reach the red line (p=71.97), and then by staying aloft for barely more than a day at the top of the rally. Let's embrace the good news: 1) the sleazeballs who rig the oil markets had little buoyancy to work with, and 2) gas prices will be coming from lower lows the next time the bad guys goose quotes on the flimsiest pretext. ______ UPDATE (Dec 7): Is yet another test of support coming at 66.32, the point 'C' low of the faintly bullish pattern shown in the inset? It sure looks that way, and it's hard to get interested, never mind excited. Zzzzzzzzzzz.
Have you heard from "Cleo Kenmille" or "Caroline Johnson"? If not, consider yourself fortunate. Those are pseudonyms used by a crew of shitbags who work out of bucket shops that lie beyond the reach of international law. Their job is to steal money from you or anyone else who is familiar with PayPal, the online banker. Paypal itself is unconnected to the scam, although their familiar logo is used to entice the unwary (see above). The header on the scammer's email -- "A small reminder from Cleo Kenmille" -- should arouse the suspicion of anyone who is even slightly wised-up about phishing scams. Since when did banks start sending out emails featuring in the headline the specific name of an individual to whom you or I supposedly owe money? This email did, though, explicitly identifying "Cleo Kenmille" as the aggrieved party. The implicit message is: "Pay her now!" Or...what? Although that question begs a stupid answer, someone might absent-mindedly fall for this grift, since the email cautions the recipient to call 888 232-0407 if he or she doesn't recognize Cleo's name. A friend of mine dialed the number and was connected to a surly man with an Indian accent. He somehow persuaded my friend to download an app that promised to "get this mess straightened out". Next thing you know, she was logged onto a phony PayPal site that listed several bitcoin transactions, including one for $98,000. Nervous and distressed, she hung up. But not before she'd given the thieves enough information to enable them to generate a very real message in her Charles Schwab account concerning a "pending" $130,000 wire transfer of her savings to a bank in Dubai. My friend immediately instructed Schwab to lock the account, changed a bunch of passwords, then waited for the other shoe
It's tempting to think in round numbers like the pundits who shill this hoax, but a mere $100,000 is not where bitcoin is going next. From a Hidden Pivot perspective, it appears nearly certain to achieve the 107,670 target shown in the chart, or 119,253 if any higher. The same bozos like to throw out absurdities like $500,000, or $1 million, but why stop there? The true believers who have stayed with bitcoin since it changed hands for a dime a copy (Oh yes, it did!) don't have limits, so let's not rain on their parade. As for the rest of us, I'd suggest taking these Hidden Pivot targets seriously because nothing goes up forever and because, in my estimation, one or the other Hidden Pivot resistance has an excellent chance of capping the literally insane rally that has made bitcoin the speculative sensation of the digital era.
The Trump rally reversed sharply after failing to achieve the secondary pivot (p2=6068.73) of the pattern shown. This is not a healthy sign, even if a 'mechanical' buy at the green line, stop 5725.50, looks very likely to produce a profit. That implies the futures will rebound to at least p= 5954.42 after falling to 5840.10, even if they don't eventually reach the pattern's 'D' target at 6183.04. The foregoing will have no bearing on the viability of the ambitious 7644.50 bull market target featured in last week's commentary. The E-Mini S&Ps' fall would have to exceed 3502.00 (!) to invalidate it. However, last week's developments demand that we pay diligent attention to lesser corrective patterns such as the one currently in progress. If there is a fatal weakness creeping into the long-term bull market, it will show itself first in ABCD patterns of minor degree.
The headline on last week's commentary asked whether it might be morning in America, but the left's combative reaction to the drubbing they received on November 5 suggests we could be closer to high noon. We may know soon, since the forces of darkness are going full-tilt against Matt Gaetz, Trump's choice for Attorney General. Wikipedia, while discreetly neglecting to mention Hitler, trotted out a laundry list of dubious citations implying that Gaetz, a Florida Congressman, is a right-wing crazy, sex pervert and a deadbeat. In their dreams, perhaps, for he is actually an avenging angel, intent on rooting out every rat and cockroach in the Justice Department and ending the U.S. Government's increasingly common practice of arresting and imprisoning people because of their conservative political views. It would look suspicious if Deep State were to take a potshot at Gaetz after failing twice to bring down Mr. Trump with bullets. Whatever their plan, they'll have the pathetically diminished but as-yet-unhumbled voice of the New York P.O.S. Times to cheer them on. Here's the editorial page with a delusional take on the election that makes clear why the Gray Lady might not even be around in ten years: “Many Democrats were considering how to navigate a dark future, with the party unable to stop Mr. Trump from carrying out a right-wing transformation of American government. Others turned inward, searching for why the nation rejected them. They spoke about misinformation and the struggle to communicate the party’s vision in a diminished news environment inundated with right-wing propaganda.” Humble Beginnings On Wall Street, Trumpmania experienced a mild setback last week. However, because investors are too revved up to have second thoughts about anything, the feeble decline over five consecutive days should be attributed to the pull of gravity. Stocks were due for
The futures rallied somewhat higher than we might have preferred last week, generating a bullish impulse leg in the process. This implies that any sequence of trading strategies we employ should have a bullish component. That would take work, however, requiring us to pay attention to a vehicle that is painful to watch. Crude's price action is animated almost solely by clowns and thieves, so I suggest opting for the no-brainer trade, even if it takes a while to set up with a drop to 65.27 (see inset). That might not occur, but it is still the only trade we should be interested in at the moment -- a no-brainer with excellent odds and risk under very tight control. Plus, it will enable us to avoid taking crude's freakish price action seriously. Considering that this is the biggest commodity market in the world, its rigged behavior is a disgrace to civilization itself.
I've been confidently anticipating the Mother of All Tops since, like, around 1975, but this week I decided to go wholeheartedly with the flow. The result, technically speaking, is a robustly optimistic S&P target at 7644.50. This might not be what permabears want to hear, but it will leave bulls sufficient room to deal with their psychotic delusions once and for all before boom turns to bust. The rally would amount to 1600 points, or 27%, and come on top of an extraordinarily steep rally begun two years ago that has pushed valuations to near-record levels. Some would say the relentless uptrend has discounted whatever miracles Donald Trump could conceivably produce for the economy. Putting that question aside, his bullish impact already on the mood of America cannot be underestimated. For starters, Trump's plan to dismember Deep State sounds do-able, especially if Republicans retain control of the House. Click here to read all about how heads are actually going to roll. There is no precedent for taking on the embedded bureaucrats who have worked tirelessly for decades to wreck everything that is good about America. Sending these traitors to the gallows, so to speak, promises to be at the heart of Trump's domestic agenda. It will be interesting to see whether the ideologues who invent the news at the New York Times and the Washington Post eventually concede that Deep State even exists. They purport that it is a creature of right-wing paranoia, even though they have aggressively supported Deep State's reign of terror editorially for decades. Term-Limit 'Bonus' The President-elect's ten-point plan even includes full-on support for term limits. This issue should have become a bipartisan favorite, but for the fact that the left has been too busy hating Trump to get behind it. Now, it would seem, the
With long-term Treasury rates rising strongly, I've relocated the point 'A' low on my chart to give the move more room. A rally touching 4.56% would max out the pattern shown in the inset. but let's stipulate that TNX must close for two consecutive weeks above that number before we infer that a retest of October 2023's 5% peak is coming. Since 4.55% looks like a promising place to go short, if perhaps only briefly, I'll suggest interpolating the target for use in conjunction with your favorite vehicle for betting on long-term rates.
Last week's series of gap-up rallies may have seemed impressive, but the move should be regarded as a dead-cat bounce until it starts exceeding 'external' peaks such as the ones shown in the chart. So far, it has exceeded no such peaks, even on the lowly hour chart. This means the rally is not even faintly impulsive. If you want a wake-up call to tell you when the uptrend becomes significant, set a screen alert at 102.99. That's a single tick above the first 'external' peak buyers will encounter on the weekly chart. It was recorded in July 2023 and is almost unnoticeable, but it is technically significant. Alternatively, if TLT relapses below 88.42, look for more downside to at least 81.80 and a worst-case low at 75.19.
