The Dollar Index has broken down with last week's penetration of a key low at 99.58 that was recorded in July 2023. Expect more weakness down to the green line (x=96.03), at least, before the greenback can turn around. A dip to the line would trigger a 'mechanical' buy predicated on a climactic run-up to the 119.37 target. That seems farfetched at the moment, but there is nothing in the chart to suggest the long-term uptrend is over. At the green line, the correction will amount to about 16% from the September 2022 high at 114.78.
Despite the hellacious dive over the last ten days, TLT is on a double buy signal. The more important of the two is shown in the weekly chart (inset). An 88.47 bid would require a stop-loss at 84.88, just beneath the pattern's point 'c' low. You can see how close the low came to stopping out the position, but it held nonetheless -- by 12 cents. T-Bonds were bound to turn around sooner or later, and the chart says this would be a logical place for it to happen. Odds that a major low is in place would shorten if this so-far modest bounce can push past D=88.39 of this minor pattern. _______ UPDATE (Apr 17): The tout above sniffed out a strong bounce, but not quite strong enough to lift TLT from the danger zone. That would require a thrust exceeding the 88.91 'external' peak shown in this chart. My hunch is that bulls lack the gusto for this task, but we'll give them the benefit of the doubt when trading gets under way after a long Easter holiday weekend.
Ten-Year rates have taken a Whoopee Cushion bounce en route to a presumptive bottom at 3.67%. It reportedly was caused by the wholesale dumping of T-Bonds by European banksters intent on disrupting U.S. financial markets. Powell's tightening regimen is making it difficult for them to open up the credit spigot, and so they have desperately tried to force his hand. The survival of some large American hedge funds could be at stake, since they were leveraged up to the eyeballs with a spread that required a bullish position in bonds. With Powell standing his ground, my gut feeling is that the panic will subside shortly and that rates will not break out above January's 4.81% high.
Quotes for crude have turned up from an odd place, well shy of a 'secondary' Hidden Pivot support at 49.25. Odds of a relapse will depend on how bulls fare pushing past a minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 62.22, and another at 65.68 (60-min, A=56.42 on 4/9). If both of these numbers are exceeded, especially decisively, then last week's low at 55.12 may prove to have been an important one. For now, set screen alerts at 62.22 and 65.68 to determine whether the bounce is likely to get legs.
[Just ahead of last Monday’s steep plunge, I predicted here that an S&P reversal from 4820 would mark the end of the bear market. So far, SPX has rallied 646 points off an actual low at 4835. Bulls are not yet out of the woods, however, since a relapse could occur at any time. The stock market remains spooked by Europe’s dumping of Treasury paper in a deliberate attempt to destabilize the U.S. financial system. With the EU economy swirling down the crapper, the globalists are desperate to force Powell to ease in order to rescue big hedge funds that were leveraged up to their eyeballs with Treasury paper. So far, the Fed chairman has stood his ground, and it appears the EU attempt to sabotage the U.S. bond market will fail. In any event, the commentary below will continue to run until such time as the S&Ps crash the 4820 Hidden Pivot and prove me wrong. If you keep my thesis in mind — that as long as 4820 holds, there will be no recession, nor any harmful effects from tariffs — you will be better able to judge the jaw-dropping stupidity of the mainstream media’s coverage of Trump 2.0. Because of their blind hatred of the president, the eggheads, reporters, pundits and benighted editorialists will continue to get everything wrong until stocks are once again soaring to new all-time highs. RA] *** A word of advice if you’re looking for bankable information on the direction of the economy: tune out the mainstream media’s cavalcade of Trump-deranged bozos and focus on the 4820 target in the SPX chart above. Think of it as Trump’s lucky number, but also a very good place for these all-too-interesting times to find temporary equilibrium. That is my worst-case target for a bear market that many believe is
[Just ahead of last Monday's steep plunge, I predicted here that an S&P reversal from 4820 would mark the end of the bear market. So far, SPX has rallied 646 points off an actual low at 4835. Bulls are not yet out of the woods, however, since a relapse could occur at any time. The stock market remains spooked by Europe's dumping of Treasury paper in a deliberate attempt to destabilize the U.S. financial system. With the EU economy swirling down the crapper, the globalists are desperate to force Powell to ease in order to rescue big hedge funds that were leveraged up to their eyeballs with Treasury paper. So far, the Fed chairman has stood his ground, and it appears the EU attempt to sabotage the U.S. bond market will fail. In any event, the commentary below will continue to run until the S&Ps crash the 4820 Hidden Pivot and prove me wrong. If you keep my thesis in mind -- that as long as 4820 holds, there will be no recession, nor any harmful effects from Trump's tariffs -- you will be better able to judge the jaw-dropping stupidity of the mainstream media's coverage of Trump 2.0. Because of their blind hatred of the president, the eggheads and benighted editorialists will continue to get everything wrong until stocks are once again soaring to new all-time highs. RA] *** A word of advice if you’re looking for bankable information on the direction of the economy: tune out the mainstream media’s cavalcade of Trump-deranged bozos and focus on the 4820 target in the SPX chart above. Think of it as Trump’s lucky number, but also a very good place for these all-too-interesting times to find temporary equilibrium. That is my worst-case target for a bear market that many believe is
[Just ahead of last Monday’s plunge, Rick’s Picks predicted that an S&P reversal at 4820 would mark the end of the bear market. Here’s a chart that shows the 661-point rally that occurred off an actual low at 4835. Bulls are not yet out of the woods, however, since a relapse could occur at any time. The stock market remains spooked by Europe’s dumping of Treasury paper in a deliberate attempt to destabilize the U.S. financial system. With the EU economy swirling down the crapper, the globalists are desperate to force Powell to ease, ostensibly to rescue big hedge funds that were leveraged up to their eyeballs with Treasury paper. So far, the Fed chairman has stood his ground, and it appears the EU attempt to sabotage the U.S. bond market will fail. In any event, the commentary below will continue to run until the S&Ps crash the 4820 Hidden Pivot and prove me wrong. If you keep my thesis in mind — that as long as 4820 holds, there will be no recession, nor any harmful effects from Trump’s tariffs — you will be better able to judge the head-slapping ignorance of the mainstream media’s coverage of Trump 2.0. Because of their blind hatred of the president, these clowns will continue to get everything wrong until stocks are once again soaring to new all-time highs. RA] *** A word of advice if you’re looking for bankable information on the direction of the economy: tune out the mainstream media’s cavalcade of Trump-deranged bozos and focus on the 4820 target in the SPX chart above. Think of it as Trump’s lucky number, but also a very good place for these all-too-interesting times to find temporary equilibrium. That is my worst-case target for a bear market that many believe is only just getting started. As a die-hard permabear
This pattern, with a 353.96 bear-market target, is such a gem that I hate to publish it, since putting it on the home page, even visible only to paying subscribers, could queer its gnarly perfection. It has signaled winners at every turn: shorting at the green line conventionally; shorting there 'mechanically' a week later; and now, betting all your marbles on a tradable turned from D=353.96 -- a conventional target, no less! Trade this however you please, since it cannot miss. I'll be looking to naked-short puts myself, but also calls until the target is reached. It is guaranteed. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 1:18 p.m.): MSFT gapped below the target before launching into a nearly $30 rally. The island reversal this left on the intraday charts is bullish, but it looks like the stock will need to correct down to 352.65 to find good traction. It is currently trading for around 361 and falling. _______ UPDATE (Apr 9, 9:57 a.m. EDT): The stock needs one more relapse to fulfill the 332.11 target shown. My strong gut feeling is that it will get there.
What a shocker! Crude actually did something last week, falling so steeply that experts were left scratching their heads. I don't much care about the reasons they're giving for the collapse, since their comments would have been credible only if they had been broached before it occurred. Putting aside speculative blather, the futures look bound for the 57.03 target shown. This is a composite chart, so that number is unlikely to work perfectly. However, it will be good enough for government work -- and for the pleasure of motorists who will always welcome lower prices at the pump.
With a longstanding rally target at 57.17 and a sell signal not far below, we had no trouble getting out of the way of last week's massacre. The vicious shakedown was engineered by the usual sleazeballs, but we'll have the luxury of rebuilding our inventory at prices that suit us, and without time constraints or pressure. The 49.42 'd' target of the pattern shown will be a good place to start, although it's conceivable the correction could bring GDXJ down to as low as 44.87 (a=55.58 on 10/22) before it turns around. That pattern implies that a run-up now to 55.17 would trigger a 'mechanical' short, so we should be on our guard against signs of premature exuberance. _______ UPDATE (Apr 8, 1:32 p.m.): Accumulating stock at the 49.42 correction target flagged above was a winning play, since GDXJ bottomed 9 cents below that number the next day before trampolining to 53.83.
