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I've reinstated MSFT as our top market bellwether because other symbols that have served in that role look too punk to count on. The shares of Apple, which couldn't innovate its way out of a wet paper bag, will be extremely vulnerable when recession hits, while Bitcoin's canny handlers lack the guts to lead stocks higher. DaBoyz turns the cryptos loose to run wild whenever the broad averages climb sharply, but this is just go-along price action incapable of exciting traders' animal spirits. 'Doc' Copper doesn't work, either. Although it looks capable of reaching $6.18 a pound, a 20% climb from current levels, that scenario is not believable in the context of a global boom in manufacturing. More likely, it would be a blowoff for the copper-intensive EV story, which has become less compelling as electric-vehicle resale values have plummeted. For better or worse, we should focus on Microsoft to gauge the strength and staying power of this nascent bear rally. With a little more than $3 trillion capitalization, the software behemoth is the third-largest company in the world, just behind Apple and Nvidia. Unlike those companies, however, Microsoft is not especially vulnerable to an economic downturn, since such a large portion of the firm's nearly $200 billion in revenues is derived from recurring subscriptions to cloud computing facilities, personal and business software. Microsoft will remain a cash cow in the hardest imaginable times, even if the supply of dollars implodes in a deflationary bust. A 'Buy' Signal So what does MSFT's chart say?  Last week, a rally tripped a theoretical buy signal at 394.56 that implies the stock will reach a minimum 412.20. We should expect a tradable pullback from that number, but if a nasty relapse follows instead, taking out the March 11 low at 376.91, that would

Traders spent the entire week screwing the pooch, demonstrating that bulls and bears are equally clueless at the moment. It suggests that the coming bear rally will likely be a tedious affair, about as much fun to watch as the 1893 New Orleans matchup between two determined lightweight boxers, Andy Bowen and Jack Burke. It went 110 rounds before the ref mercifully called it a draw. Will the SEC step in and freeze stocks at a permanently high plateau? My hunch is that the longer this slugfest lasts, the more likely the broad averages will make marginal new highs before a full-blown, take-no-prisoners bear emerges. More immediately, however, you should use 5845.75, the Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart (inset), as a minimum upside objective when the new week begins. It will remain viable as long as traders, entranced by Wall Street's fun-house mirror, don't stop themselves out with a stupid, pointless feint beneath last week's 5650.75 low.

The Trump wild card has made it especially difficult to bet on the stock market. Even cynics can't say for sure that his radical agenda will not eventually produce an economic golden era capable of pushing the Dow average to 100,000 or higher. In just two short months, the president has crushed wokeness and racial quotas, enabling most Americans to feel good about themselves for the first time since the 1950s. And although fraud and corruption in government will always be with us because that's where the money is, it's possible Trump has returned America to a path that will reinvigorate just leadership and honest institutions that we can be proud of.  As for the tariffs, they are arguably the only medicine strong enough to jolt the world into doing honest business.  The kicker is that they cannot but entice foreign manufacturers to expand their operations in the U.S.  (If you have read this far and TDS rage has begun to churn your stomach, here's some advice:  Blow it out your shorts.) The graph above is intended as a do-it-yourself tool for gauging the power of the bear rally that began on March 13.  The implication is that no short-squeeze will exceed the 5976.00 target (4) of the pattern shown. If it does, then permabears had better not get in the way of the thrust to new record highs that is likely to follow. I have drawn the chart according to the proprietary rules of the Hidden Pivot Method.  This picture exhibits a 'reverse ABCD pattern' that I have watched in action 100,000 times and studied for nearly 30 years. Trust me, it works. Pattern Is 'Confirmed' Its accuracy and reliability were confirmed last week when the booster stage of the presumptive bear rally stalled precisely at 5768 (2), a

Expect ten-year rates to continue ratcheting lower, at least to the 3.959% 'secondary pivot' shown in the chart. The breach of p=4.242% was not decisive, and rates have yet to close for two consecutive weekly bars below it. However, the initial downside penetration reached the 'sweet spot' between p and p2, implying that an uptick in rates to the green line (x=4.526%) would be a short sale.  The chart is inconclusive about whether d=3.675% will be achieved, but an overshoot of p2 would shorten the odds. It is my maximum downside target, nonetheless.

Bitcoins's pullback from the record 108,388 achieved in late December has overshot a 'd' target at 83,603, implying it will grope lower for support from either of two Hidden Pivot supports associated with a larger reverse (rABC) pattern begun from  a=69,000 in November 2021. The relevant levels lie, respectively, at 68,233, a p2 'secondary support' that should be used as a minimum downside objective for the time being; or d=54,848 if any lower.

Will there be one last melt-up before this doddering bull market seeks penance?  Some of my fellow gurus believe a final show of bravado is coming, especially those who base their predictions on Elliott Wave Theory. I think the party is over, but I'm forced to admit that if too many traders agree with me, new record highs fueled by short-covering are likely. My skepticism is based more on market psychology than on the charts displayed above.  We'll get to them in a moment, but first let's consider investors' state of mind, based on what people we know have been saying. Stocks came down hard in the last month -- hard enough for the usually thundering herd to wonder whether it might be time to bail out, or at least lighten up and move into cash. It was not quite a bloodfest, but the megastocks that made 2024 a year to brag about have been hit especially hard. When last week began, the broad averages had given up all of their Trump 2.0 gains and then some. But just when it seemed like stocks were about to go over the cliff, the S&Ps uncorked a 100-point rally on Friday, saving not only the day, but the week. Come Monday, fear will have turned into nervous hope. I expect Mr Market to encourage this self-deception with more upside. And if Friday's surge was the start of a bear rally worthy of the name, we should look for it to continue until nervous hope turns into greed. That would imply a run at the old highs. A Different Kind of Dip The similarities between the charts are too striking to dismiss, along with their implication that the Mother of All Tops is already in. As summer began in 2008, IBM came within

The chart is nearly identical to the one accompanying this week's commentary, but I'll add a proprietary detail that will allow you to plot the next three moves rather than just two.  I already mentioned that the selloff of the last three weeks could reverse from a 'voodoo' number at 5641.50.  However, if the bounce comes from 5555.00 as is more likely, it would be a good bet to terminate at either 5733.25, or if any higher, at 5912.00.  By all means, jot those numbers down, since they offer a possible way to get a tight, tradable handle on price action over the next 3-4 weeks. ______ UPDATE Mar 12): A so-far feeble bounce has come from 5534.00, 0.3% below the 5555 target given above. However, it would need to punch through Hidden Pivot resistance at 5712.75 to be judged significant.  The equivalent resistance for the June contract is 5765.25, and its decisive breach could open a path to as high as 5945.50 -- a bear rally worthy of the name.

GDXJ looks all but certain to achieve the 54.92 target shown in the chart. The gap opening through p=48.39 on January 30 was an encouraging sign, and the more recent dip below the red line (p=48.39) was also impressive. since it triggered a so-far profitable buy there. We usually initiate 'mechanical' trades at the green line, but when the trend looks especially robust, there's a risk of missing the opportunity by not stepping up to the next level. ______ UPDATE (Mar 14, 8:11 a.m. EDT): This week's bold leap to a so-far high at 54.72 has left little doubt that GDXJ will not only reach my target, it will go on to achieve the next, an ambitious Hidden Pivot at  57.17 shown in this chart. Although Comex gold and silver futures showed timidity at times in 2025, this ETF for gold exploration companies has confidently led the way up. With mining stocks finally on the move, the health and longevity of the bull market in bullion seems assured for yet more months, if not years.

I’ve written here before about how the broad averages have struggled to go lower during what could turn out to be the initial phase of a bear market. Many traders, particularly greenhorns too young to have never experienced a bear market, appear to be buying each step of the way down. They could do so only if they were confident a rally lies just ahead. You can hardly blame them, since this has been more or less true for the last 16 years. The chart shows February's selloff in graphic form. Notice the series of elongated bars over the last three weeks. Their steep, smooth fall resembles that of a parachute-drop rather than a crash landing. There is no trace of panic or even urgency in the decline, just hard selling that is being met minute-by-minute with serene buying, most of it occurring in the latter half of the day. A Doge-y Economy So far, the S&Ps have fallen 8% from the record highs they achieved near 6200 in December. That's not even a stiff correction, let alone a bear market. But tariff talk and Doge layoffs have begun to unsettle the markets in ways that make a recession thinkable. A few retail analysts have even conceded there is a "small possibility" of a recession in 2025.  In Wall Street-speak that's practically a siren alert telling investors to prepare for Armageddon.  But there is barely a hint of a downturn as yet, only two consecutive months of punk consumer spending. It is possible nonetheless to extrapolate a bearish scenario from the chart above. For starters, the S&P 500 will fall to the 5555 target shown. Then, they will rally with sufficient vigor to make tariff worries and the threat of a land war in Europe melt away, at least for