Rick Ackerman

GDXJ's ballistic rally died midway between two middling targets at 104.25 and 106.84, respectively. A more important one lies at 111.59, and we are using it as a bull-market objective with the potential to stop buyers in their tracks. More immediately, you can play for a run-up to the 107.96 target shown in the inset.  The pattern has yet to develop, since a 'buy' signal at the green line gave way to weakness on Friday that nearly stopped out the trade.  We'll give bulls the benefit of the doubt for the moment nevertheless, implying p=103.21 can be used as a minimum upside objective when shares start to trade on Monday. If they fall on their face at the starting bell, slide 'C' down to the new low to create a fresh, usable pattern, even if it is beneath the current 'C' at 95.71 (10/2). _______ UPDATE (Oct 17, 1:26 a.m. EDT): Like gold futures, GDXJ topped today close enough to a compelling Hidden Pivot target that it actually might be a decent short, assuming you've stuck with my 'insane' targets most of the way up and made some money . You can test this with a 1.70 trigger interval, but if the trade sevens out, raise your sights to a minimum of 118.08, since that's where this monster will be headed. You can also get long 'mechanically' with a 103.35 bid, stop 98.43.  Good through Tuesday.

T-Bonds got a strong lift from Friday's panicky sell-off on Wall Street. TLT became a good bet to reach p=91.24, at least, but a decisive move through this Hidden Pivot, especially on first contact, would imply more upside to p2=92.63, and thence to as high as D=94.02 over the near term. Although the pattern is a conventional one with a 'C' low above 'A', it is sufficiently compelling to lend authority to the bullish case. Assuming D is achieved, look for stocks to continue lower, with hard selling in the institutionally driven lunatic sector (a.k.a. the 'Magnificent Seven') and in Bitcoin.

Although in recent years October has not lived up to its reputation for scaring the pants off investors, we should take Friday's punitive reversal seriously, since it could mark the start of a bear market that is arguably years overdue. Although we have grown accustomed to 'freaky' Fridays producing headline events now and then, there was something especially disconcerting about this latest episode. It was driven unmistakably by news that Trump had threatened to slap a 100% tariff on Chinese goods in retaliation for restrictions they placed on so-called rare-earth exports to the U.S. These minerals, while not actually rare, are essential to the production of powerful magnets that are used in electronic hardware, including components vital to the aerospace industry and the military. The U.S. was already focused on establishing alternative sources for rare earth minerals, but it will take time and money, since extracting 'rare earths' from dirt requires processing that is costly and complicated. Downplaying China's Threat  In any event, Western factories and computers are not going to grind to a halt simply because of China's threat. And it is likely to be no more than that, since Trump has cards of his own to play, including access to advanced computer chips that China is presently unable to produce. The foregoing is all secondary to the matter of why U.S. stocks plunged on the news. The broad averages were up sharply in the early going, but by day's end the Dow had reversed by nearly 1200 points. A corresponding reversal took place in the institutionally-driven lunatic sector (aka the Magnificent Seven), wiping trillions of dollars of dubious  'wealth effect' lucre from the macro ledger. Clearly, this was an extreme overreaction to the news, since investors had grown used to Trump's frequent tariff shenanigans. Although the mainstream media

MSFT is in a messy, timid bull cycle that points to 547.12, about 6% above.  I am tracking a long position from 506.06, since I'd suggested buying there 'mechanically' ahead of the pullback. (A separate long position from 493 that was initiated on my say-so is being tracked at GoldenMeadow.eu )  Further progress to 547.12 is hardly a done deal, as the stock has yet to decisively penetrate the midpoint resistance at 519.75. But bears look too tired to resist MSFT's inexorable upward drift, and so a move to the target must be regarded as likely. We may know more as the new week begins, since the E-Mini S&Ps ended the week with a moderate selloff from within a split hair of a rally target I'd drum-rolled at 6803.

Although Bitcoin flounces around like the ritalin-dosed kleine kinder who trade it, there are no instances we can recall when its hyperactive movement fooled or confused us.  It is headed unavoidably to a record 132,743 at the moment, and do with that information what you may. The rally's decisive penetration of midpoint resistance at 119,996 offers all but ironclad assurance that the target will be reached. A tradable pause is equally likely at that price, since the pattern, although too obvious to depend on precisely, is good enough for government work. Don't pass up an opportunity to get long at 113,623 (stop 107,249) if BTC should swoon gratuitously.

I'm still in San Francisco, avoiding the withering heat of Florida's monsoon season. I am also taking a break from my regular commentaries, since writing about the greed and stupidity that have propped up the stock market and the economy for the last decade was growing boring and repetitive. Instead, I've featured paintings by friends, most recently Geoffrey Leckie and Deborah Oropallo. The photograph above was taken by Victor Riess, whom I met two decades ago in Colorado when he took my trading course. An avid bicyclist and musician, Victor is also the best photographer I know. He took the picture above near his home in Lancaster, PA. It is a wintry Pennsylvania scene that vividly recalls landscapes painted by the Dutch master Pieter Bruegel in the mid-1500s at the height of his powers. All of Victor's photos are for sale, including the picture of the Amish girl featured here last week. The work above, a signed, original print, is priced at $32,000. It is approximately 20" x 30". Considering that a collector paid $68,750 for this appalling Peter Hujar photo of a dead cow at Christie's a few years ago, Victor's beautiful landscape, which makes the heart sing, is a great bargain for $32k. For further details, email me at Rick's Picks.

The futures have behaved well, meaning predictably and profitably, within the pattern shown, so far producing a short precisely from p2, and on Thursday a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=6659.00). There are no guarantees bulls will achieve D=6803.34, since price action at the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=6707.17) has been a knock-down, drag-out battle. But since every rally for the last 16 years has equaled or surpassed its target, there is no reason to think this one will go unachieved.  A final note: There are two textbook trades left in the pattern -- long to d; and, if you've made money on the ride up,  short at D. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3, 1:34 p.m.): The pullback from exactly 6800.00 seems too coy to last, but we should still respect the possibility of an important top there, since it fell just a split-hair shy of a compelling Hidden Pivot target that took four months to reach.  If, as is more likely, bulls get second wind and continue higher, 6874.25 would be the next logical stop on the way to, like, Mars.  If you got short as suggested above, an rABC pattern extrapolated from the hourly chart (a=6787.50) would have triggered at 6794.75 and taken you out of half with a quick profit at 6779.00.  The next, potentially buyable, Hidden Pivot support for this correction comes in at 6736.50.

The 53.05 target shown is the highest that can be projected for Silver on a long-term chart. It is unlikely to work precisely, since the chart is a blend of different contract months, and because the pattern itself will be too obvious to too many. Even so, the target is sufficiently compelling to suggest the Comex price will either top somewhere near there, or stall on the way to still greater heights. We can use 53.05 as a minimum objective in any event, since that stab through p2, the secondary pivot, left little doubt about the feistiness of silver bulls. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3): Assuming today's top at 48.325 endures for a day or two, try bottom-fishing with a tightly stopped bid at 47.175, a minor midpoint Hidden Pivot support.  An easy breach would portend more slippage to as low as 46.025. ________ UPDATE (Oct 6, 12:08 p.m. EDT): The pullback got no lower than 47.685 before silver took off again. The closest Hidden Pivot 'D target you can use for a minimum objective for the next couple of days is 49.835.

A 15% rally to the 111.59 target shown is likely. I've used a reverse pattern (rABC) taken from the monthly chart to project the extent of the move, which should unfold over the remaining months of 2025 and perhaps into early 2026. The point 'a low is an acceptable choice because this vehicle, a proxy for mining exploration companies, was introduced by Van Eck at the end of 2009. Notice that the first-time buyers encountered the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=64.23) along the c-d leg, they stalled almost precisely there before correcting for a little more than two years. The eventual penetration of p, although hardly explosive, was decisive enough to make a follow-through to 'd' a good bet. ______ UPDATE (Oct 3): Use this pattern to trade GDXJ in the days ahead.  p=98.03 is a logical place to attempt bottom-fishing with very tight risk control, but any slippage beneath it would imply more weakness to p2=96.61, at least, or even D=95.20. ________ UPDATE (Oct 6, 12:25 p.m.): Buyers have pulled back slightly so far after stalling 13 cents above a minor Hidden Pivot resistance at 103.92 (60-min, a=95.60 on 9/18). Once they clear this obstacle, there is still room on the hourly chart for further progress this week to 104.25, and thence 106.84.  As always, an easy move through a Hidden Pivot target should be regarded as a sign the next is likely to be achieved.