Rick Ackerman

The irresistible power of the stock market's melt-up is on display in the fleeting B-C pullback shown in the chart (see inset). That's all it took to recharge this vehicle for an impending, 121-point surge to the 6429.00 'D' target.  There can be little doubt the futures will get there, given the ease with which they penetrated the 6306.13 midpoint resistance last Wednesday and then closed above it. There are two compelling trades left in the pattern: a mechanical 'buy' at x=6244.50 if the futures should pull back sharply, and a tightly stopped short at D=6429.00 if you've profited on the way up. ________ UPDATE (Jul 7, 2:53 p.m. EDT): Today's plunge brought the futures down to within less than two points of x=6244.50, where I had suggested a 'mechanical' buy. If you got aboard near the low, I'd recommend taking a partial profit on the 21-point bounce that has occurred so far.

TLT weakened last week after creating a bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, generating a theoretical sell signal in the process. If the so-far moderate decline is merely corrective, we should see a tradable rebound from the 85.99 midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart (inset).  That is what I expect, but if the support gives way, especially on a closing basis, expect the slippage to continue down to at least p2=84.76, or even to a worst-case d=83.53.  That would leave the important low at 83.30 recorded on May 22 intact, but only barely.

The pattern shown in the inset sucks for trading because the 'a' and 'c' highs are nearly equal, and because the a-b leg did not surpass any prior 'external' lows. That's why I'll suggest paper trading this one unless you know how to craft a small-pattern trigger (aka 'camouflage') that can reduce the $8200 entry risk to $270 or less per contract. However, merely spectating should help us determine with greater confidence whether the soul-crushing tedium of the last two months is more likely to give way to a breakout, or a breakdown. Regardless, if the August contract touches the green line (x=3394.70), that would trigger a theoretical 'mechanical' short, stop 3477. If the hypothetical trade produces a profit, that will imply that bears have at least a small edge at the moment. ______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 1:45 a.m. EDT): The futures will fall to at least 3301.80 before they can find a foothold. Bottom-fish there with a tight rABC trigger if you are familiar with the tactic. Otherwise, I'd suggest spectating.

The chart provides no strong clues concerning the direction of the next big move. Usually, charts of lesser degree are helpful when the bigger charts are unclear, as is currently the case in Comex Silver. In this case, however, last Wednesday's feint to the red line failed to touch it, denying us an opportunity to get short 'mechanically' when the futures rallied back up to the green line (x=36.939). The most promising trade I can discern in this chart would be to buy a swoon to d=35.812. That seems unlikely, but we should set a screen alert nonetheless so that we won't miss the opportunity if it comes.

We're all waiting anxiously to see whether Trump's bold initiatives usher in a golden economic era. If this is going to happen, we should see the Dow Industrial lurch toward 100,000 at any time. Just a few short weeks ago, you could have counted me among the skeptics. It is a habit that has become deeply ingrained in me after writing collapsitarian essays and editorials for the last 30 years. However, I have been so wrong about this for so many years that I would never, ever insist that such a seemingly outrageous rally is impossible.  Skeptics aside, there are perhaps 80 to 100 million Americans rooting with all their might for the President to fall on his face. This is Trump Derangement Syndrome at its stupidest and most hateful, since a really bad year for the President could mean our children will have to suffer through a Second Great Depression. The good/bad news is that we should know soon how things are likely to turn out. That's because the stock market is in fly-or-die mode, so dangerously pumped with crazy, Wall Street hype and AI hubris that it cannot possibly sustain altitude unless investors decide to go all-in, and soon.  It would be a peculiar time for stocks to take flight, since U.S. consumers are tapped out and falling increasingly behind on car and house payments, and GDP shrank by 0.4% in the first quarter.  We may have entered a recession, and it has the potential to become a devastating one because, publicly and privately, the nation is so deep in hock. It is not yet so deep, however, that an adroitly engineered bear squeeze could not prevent a potentially fatal, contractionary mindset from taking root. America Ascendant The graph above holds the key to our best hopes and

The very gnarly ABCD pattern shown is one of my favorites because it rs tripped a profitable conventional long at the green line (x=106,290): a profitable short from the red line (p=107,900); and a profitable 'mechanical' buy at 106,900 that was recently featured here. There are two good possibilities left:  a 'mechanical' buy at 107,900, stop 106,827; and a short from 111,118.27. Regarding the latter trade, I expect the target to show sufficiently precise stopping power to allow a very tight stop-loss if it is hit. Even if D is not reached, which seems unlikely, it will have kept us on the right side of a bullish trend since the futures were trading below 105,000. _______ UPDATE (Jul 7, 12:31 a.m. EDT): The 'mechanical' trade is showing a gain of nearly $1400 at the moment, so I'll suggest taking a partial profit if possible. If you swing for the fences, use a trailing stop that will preserve at least a nominal win no matter what. _______ UPDATE (Jul 9, 4:50 p.m.): This afternoon's strong short squeeze impaled my 111,118 rally target, clinching more upside over the very near-term to at least 112,739. That is a clear and compelling Hidden Pivot resistance, and if buyers brush it aside, expect the rally to continue to at least 117,676.

Last week's nasty short-squeeze stopped just shy of the 6250.38 target I'd drum-rolled, but the selloff that followed quickly reversed an hour before the closing bell. Since Microsoft performed similarly relative to a more quietly disseminated target at 503.69, we should begin the week with at least modest expectations that the stock market has suffered a stroke. However, let's not be too surprised if both vehicles blow past these calculated obstacles, much as they've been doing for years. I strongly doubt this will happen, although staking out a short position will have become more difficult because Friday's top occurred so close to one that only we 'knew' about.  That's debatable, of course, since I myself raised the possibility that every Tom, dick and Harry we compete against has figured out how to 'read' the C-D midpoints of conventional patterns and to trade against them. In any case, if DaBoyz tighten their vise grip on bears' scrota as the new weeks begins, look for the futures to continue on up to at least p2=6469.81. ________ UPDATE (Jul 3, 1:35 a.m. EDT):  Buyers shattered a concrete Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 6250.38, clearing a path to at least 6306.25 (60m, A=5993.25 on 6/25, B=6329.00 on 6/27). _______ UPDATE (Jul 3, 2:59 p.m.): The Mother of All Short Squeezes has blown past 6306.25 (see my last update) with such ease that more upside to at least 6429.00 is coming.  That is the 'D' target of a pattern smaller than the one tied to the 6469.81 midpoint Hidden Pivot noted above, but we'll put it out of mind until 6429.00 is achieved and then, presumably, surpassed

[Note:  I've changed the core list of touts, adding some futures contracts in order to provide more tradable opportunities. The new selections will vary from week to week.  RA ]  There are no sure things in the trading world, but the possibilities in the Copper contract shown in the chart look quite enticing. This pattern has already paid off twice with a 'conventional' buy at the green line (x=4.4079), and a 'mechanical' buy on the pullback to the red line (p=4.6983). It can still be milked for two additional trades: 1) a 'long' to d=5.2790; and ) a short when d=5.2790 is achieved (which looks like a foregone conclusion). The latter trade is the more promising, since the chart holds out the possibility of an important top at or near the target. ______ UPDATE (Jul 4): The futures made scant headway last week toward the 5.2790 target noted above. Short there with a tight stop-loss if you've held a long position that made money on the way up. The target is the 'd' terminus of a large 'reverse' pattern begun last winter, so a reversal there could conceivably be an important one, and you should treat it as such.  Here's the chart. _______ UPDATE (Jul 11) Trump's latest tariff threat spiked the price of copper by nearly $1.00 per pound in a single day, blowing past my 5.2790 rally target with ease. I'd suggested shorting there only to subscribers who were long on the way up, but the extreme volatility of the move could have produced results that varied significantly. I'd be interesting in hearing from those who did the trade, since it will sharpen my ability to tailor trades to suit your needs and your appetite for risk.

The grandaddy of all short squeezes (in dollar terms) stopped an inch shy of the 503.69 target we've been using. It looks like 'our' target got front-run on the intraday charts, but the view shown, of the daily chart, 'feels' like the target will be achieved. In any case, we should be ready to get short there, especially subscribers who have made money on the way up using my crazy-bullish targets. This should be done with a tight stop-loss, preferably tied to a small-pattern ('camouflage') trigger, since we've become used to seeing this stock vaporize Hidden Pivots made from inch-thick titanium. I consider this unlikely, but the pattern itself is probably too obvious to give us our top precisely where we want it. ______ UPDATE (Jul 4, 12:55 p.m. EDT): Some subscribers were able to get long just ahead of the stock's engineered, lunatic leap this morning using a Hidden Pivot correction target I'd disseminated earlier.  Visit the chat room for details. ______ UPDATE (Jul 4): Technical signs remain persuasive that the stock will make a potentially important top at or near 503.69, a Hidden Pivot resistance nine months in the making.  This warrants laying out shorts at or near the target -- either via purchasing puts when MSFT gets there; or, preferably, naked-shorting soon-to-expire, at-the-money calls with a tight stop-loss. ________ UPDATE July 9, 6:41 p.m. EDT): The Great Microsoft Waft drilled a .50 caliber hole in my Hidden Pivot target before pulling back unconvincingly. The stock is on its way to at least 516.95 over the near-term. It should be bought 'mechanically' on a retracement to x=495.76, stop 488.69, (60m, A=472.51 on 6/23).