Silver has pulled out of a steep dive that retraced more than 80% of the rally begun in mid-November from 22.26. We are likely to know soon whether the reversal is capable of achieving the 26.865 target shown, since a crucial resistance lies just above in the form of a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 24.82, As always, an easy penetration of this obstacle, or better yet two consecutively weekly closes above it, would suggest bulls are back in charge. This seems very likely because the impulse leg that drove the futures to their most recent high at 26.34 surpassed two 'external' peaks and one 'internal' without taking a breather.
Although touts for bullion vehicles listed just above are bullish, GDXJ's weekly chart gives us reason for caution. Notice how the recent high at 39.47 failed to surpass the 'external' peak at 39.70 recorded in July. This display of timidity, which narrowly failed to generate a fresh impulse leg, is not necessarily the kiss of death, but neither is it very encouraging. It would be remedied by a robust blast above 39.47 this week, but until such time as that happens, I'll keep the yellow flag unfurled. Am unqualified success would portend more upside to 41.81.
Although the rally from the October low at 82.74 has seemed impressive, it has yet to surpass any significant obstacles. The first test lies just above in the form of a Hidden Pivot resistance at 100.57, the 'D' target of a clear and compelling reverse pattern. If buyers are able to get past it, the next significant challenge would be at the pattern's 'B high at 109.68; and thence at 120.69, an imposing peak from early August. The decisiveness of any move above these benchmarks would be a factor in determining the rally's staying power. _____ UPDATE (Jan 5); The puts that subscribers bought for 0.19 traded for ten times that today on hard selling that drew only a brief, contrarian respite in the first hour. TLT finished just off the low of the day and could continue falling to the 95.26 target shown in this chart before it gets a foothold.
The downtrend's so-far failure to reach the 64.80 target could be a sign of incipient strength or even the start of a reversal of the mini-bear market that has cut oil's price by 23% since it topped in September at 88.21 a barrel. Regardless, the February contract would become a fetching 'mechanical' short at the green line (x=75.88), stop 79.58. If there's an expression of interest in the chat room at the appropriate time, I'll provide guidance for doing so with a 'camouflage' trigger.
Most of us had been expecting gold to explode through the $2000 "barrier" and soar into the wild blue yonder. Instead, it spasmed to $2152 for a nanosecond on December 4, then crashed back down below $2000 like an anvil dropped into an elevator shaft. What happened? Gold is most certainly in a bull market, even if the ascent has been tortuous. One might think bull-market psychology would limit the extent to which bullion's price can be manipulated, especially lower. And it has, evidently, judging from the way the last takedown attempt reversed without even getting close to a prior low at 1955. This is despite the fact that gold's price is controlled by white-collar criminals who act with the blessings and complicity of regulators and their evil masters in the upper echelons of banking. We suggest that you Google our old friend Andy Maguire if you want to understand exactly how these slimeballs from Wharton, Sloan and Stanford operate. Their mothers actually believe they are respectable businessmen. Use the Trendline So when might we expect gold to get off the launching pad with enough firepower to turn the bad guys' pelotas into roasted chestnuts? It is logical to think this will happen when gold has finished consolidating at the $2000 level. However, because it has spent the last year making a muddle of this idea, I'll suggest using the trendline in the chart above to determine when COMEX futures have broken out for a run-up to at least $2500. That implies a consolidation above $2100 rather than at the ponderously symbolic $2000. A second, decisive poke above $2100 this month or next would hasten the process, especially if the futures can settle above the trendline for two or more consecutive weeks. Bulls can afford to be patient, since anyone
TLT's leap last week, which left two bullish gaps on the daily chart, was less encouraging than it seemed. For an uptrend to remain healthy, it must continually renew itself by surpassing a prior peak with each new upthrust. Although the latest thrust did exceed a cluster of small highs recorded in mid-September, it failed to go the extra inch needed to get past August 31's summit at 97.05. An energetic upward reversal early in the week could rectify this shortcoming, but if TLT simply drifts sideways-to-lower, it would diminish the putative strength of the ascent begun from 82.42 on October 23. I am being finicky to avoid overlooking the possibility that interest rates have merely been correcting, and that Powell plans to let market forces take them above 5%. ______ UPDATE (Dec 13, 10:51 p.m.): DaBoyz on the night shift have succeeded in wafting TLT as high as 97.14, surpassing the Aug 31 high. The move is therefore impulsive and will refresh the bullish energy of the daily chart.
The futures continued their tortuous slog toward the 4634.50 rally target shown, defying a growing chorus of prognosticators who believe, not without good reason, that the stock market is overdue for a rest. It has been moving relentlessly higher since October 30, driven mainly by short-covering and airy, gap-up openings in a handful of Nasdaq stocks, particularly MSFT and AAPL. Any progress above the target given above would indicate more upside to 4687.00 [corrected upward), but the lower number cries out to be shorted. This is notwithstanding its non-public appearance on the Rick's Picks home page. _______ UPDATE (Dec 13, 10:43 p.m.): When criminally manipulated rallies turn silly, as this one has, we are fortunate to have Hidden Pivots to make tradable sense of them. The pattern shown looks too wacky to be reliable for nailing an important top, but the 4804.00 target shown should work nonetheless as a lodestar for bull trades as well as a place to get short using a tight 'reverse pattern'. The pattern in progress should also work nicely for 'mechanical' bids on any one- or two-level pullbacks from no higher than around 4770.
Although AAPL has trailed the meteoric MSFT, the stock could play catch-up with a blast to as high as 219.93, the target shown. It would presumably get there within a day or so of MSFT's achieving a corresponding target at 430.58 that has been drum-rolled here. A breakaway move this week above p=192.8 would be a tell hinting of buying power sufficient to put a worthy finishing stoke on the stock's spectacular rise. Any trades will have to come from the intraday charts, since we are unlikely to be gifted with a pullback sufficient to generate a 'mechanical' buy on a chart of larger degree. _______ UPDATE (Dec 13, 10:58 p.m.): Are these guys good, or what? AAPL's handlers have turned murderous tonight, brazenly pushing the stock into record territory in after-hours trading. There isn't much left to slow it down now.
Friday's dastardly takedown put the February contract on course for a drop to at least 2001.50. If that Hidden Pivot support fails to brake gold's fall, look for more slippage to 1986.90, calculated by shifting the pattern's point 'A' high five bars to the left. The scumballs who manipulate gold have demonstrated that they are capable of pulling out the rug whenever they please. However, given the run-up to a new record high at 2152 just before the sniper's head-shot, it has become more difficult for them to convince us that gold needs to correct much below 2000 while it vamps for a shot at 2200 and higher. _______ UPDATE (Dec 13, 11:03 p.m.): The futures trampolined $65 from within $1 of the 1986.90 bottoming target billboarded above. Everybody happy?
As Silver plummeted on Friday, few subscribers would have been focused on the green line, where the March contract will become an all-but-obligatory 'mechanical' buy. Such trades are not supposed to leave one feeling comfortable, and this one would surely qualify as menacing. Note, however, that the implication is not that the futures will necessarily achieve D=27.16 after touching x=22.67, only that they are more like to bounce to p=24.16 than to fall first below C=21.17. We can manage the risk of this opportunity with a smidgen of 'camouflage if it materializes', so please nudge me in the chat room if you're actively engaged. ______ UPDATE (Dec 13, 11:11 p.m.): No one nudged me, but DaBoyz goosed the March contract $1.34 off a 22.78 low that missed touching my green-line 'launching pad' by 12 cents. Our attention is now on this very tradable pattern, with a 25.47 D target. The slight overshoot of p=24.13 implies that D is no worse than an even bet to be reached.
