Rick Ackerman

A minor rally target posted in the chat room on Wednesday caught Friday's spike high within 0.04%, but there's more rally room to at least 94,155 once Bitcoin completes its pullback. The whipsaw reversal to the downside shaved nearly $3,000 from the peak price in under three hours, underscoring the nasty volatility that occurs in this vehicle between swing highs and lows that have been precisely predictable. For those who trade BTC over the weekend, look for a reversal from 89,980 to leverage.  Be aware, however, that a decisive breach of this midpoint Hidden Pivot support (15m, a= 92,804 on 11/28) could send Bitcoin down to at least 88,688 in search of traction. _______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 7:30 p.m.): Bitcoin's slide through the 'hidden' supports given above implies more slippage to 86,884. If that Hidden Pivot gives way, the next support would be at 83,746, and thence 80,607. _______ UPDATE (Dec 1, 8:52 p.m.):  The low of today's plunge came within 54 points, or six-hundredths of one percent, of the 83,746 target given above. The lowest number in the sequence, 80,607, remains valid as a minimum downside objective if BTC relapses, and a run-up to 90,023 would trigger a theoretical 'mechanical' short, stop 93,163.

The double top is so striking that a contrarian might have expected it to be exceeded to the upside eventually. That prospect looks at least somewhat less likely now that the stock has begun to recede from it. However, we should look for support at 444.08, about 28 points below, where the d target of a reverse pattern lies. It can also serve as a minimum objective for the next 4–7 days, and as a place to attempt bottom-fishing with a tightly constructed ABCD pattern of minute degree.

The 4001.70 midpoint Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown perfectly caught the recent low, but if it gets decisively breached, that would open a path down to p2=3877.50, or even to D=3753.3. My bias is mildly bearish for the near term because the downtrend has been in force since before Halloween. Below 4001.70, the best chance bulls would have to turn things around would be at 3976.30, the d target of a smaller reverse pattern (or d=4011.30, basis February). Chances for an upturn there are good enough that I'll recommend bottom-fishing to subscribers who know how to craft a 'camouflage' trigger, a simple trick that I detailed in the chat room not long ago. (It also went out via email to everyone whose 'E-Mail Notifications' feature is checked in the account dashboard.) _______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 12:35 p.m.): Assuming Feb Gold catches up to Jan Silver, the weekly chart (A=3234.00 on 5/16/25) implies more upside over the near term to at least 4529.70. A stall there would validate a pattern that projects to as high as 5126.10. 

You could back up the truck and buy 'em  at 46.16 the 'd' target of the pattern shown, although there are no assurances the futures will get there. Odds are somewhat in favor of it, since the pattern has already produced three theoretically profitable trades: a conventional short at the green line, a mechanical short on the rally back up to it, and a buy at 48.224, the secondary Hidden Pivot support. It would take a rally exceeding the 52.245 peak from November 19, for bulls kick-start the long-term uptrend. _____ UPDATE (Nov 28, 12:15 p.m. EST): Silver has exploded this morning and is currently up $3.01/oz, trading well above a would-be daunting Hidden Pivot resistance at 56.05 (basis the January contract).  The next HP of consequence is 57.61, which can serve as a minimum price objective for now. If it is decisively exceeded, that would imply further potential to 63.50, or even 69.40. Both targets come from the weekly chart of the January contract, where A= 30.27 on 4/4/25.

I've displayed a bullish pattern because the fall from mid-October's 112.45 peak didn't quite reach the corrective pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot (p).  The uptrend struggled for loft last week, however, and failed by 9 cents to trigger a conventional 'buy' signal at 95.79. The trigger will remain valid until such time as GDXJ slips beneath the 'C' low at 92.66.  We'll adjust C downward if that occurs, but below 91.50, the short-term outlook would shift to bearish. Even so, a tightly stopped bid can be attempted there if you're a scalper, since it is the 'd' target of a small reverse pattern.

If the futures relapse early in the week, looks for tradable support to develop at 6483.50, a voodoo number. However, we should be careful not to underestimate the potential power of this bear rally, especially if it blows a hole in p=6716.25, a Hidden Pivot resistance that can serve as a minimum upside objective for the near term. Above it there are three 'hidden' resistance points we can monitor to gauge trend strength. They lie at 6768.50, 6812.00 and 6907.50, respectively, and a penetration of each would imply the next is likely to be reached. The last would fall somewhat shy of the old record high at 6953.75 recorded on October 30.  Since a new high could conceivably create a devastating bull trap, we should be more cautious than ever at those heights, and not without skeptici sm.

There'll be more to say about the bear market as it develops. It has taken some baby steps so far, with a 2,100-point slide in the Dow over several days, then a stunning, 1,115-point reversal to the downside after Nvidia announced strong earnings last Thursday. Talking heads and editorialists opined that quarterly numbers were not quite as sensational as investors had anticipated, but they missed the point. For just as poor earnings barely fazed stocks during the 16-year bull market, merely decent earnings are unlikely to provide more than fleeting upticks in a bear market. Get used to it, because this new dynamic will be with us until shares hit bottom years from now. With respect to Nvidia, it didn't help that Wall Street and every investor on earth was desperately counting on their earnings announcement to reverse the slide of the broad averages in the days preceding the report. When the Dow notched a record high on November 12, pundits paid scant attention to the failure of the usually feisty Nasdaq Index and the 'Cubes' (QQQ) to follow suit. Six months from now, however, this divergence will be seen as one of those bells that supposedly doesn't ring at the top. Making Disney a Has-Been Although my vantage point on Nvidia is purely technical, others saw the stock's punitive reversal as related to the questionable way they report earnings. One analyst cited the exceptionally long lag time between billings and receipts. Were the global economy to fall into recession, he notes, the manufacturer could conceivably get stiffed by strapped customers, wiping billions of dollars in profits already recorded from Nvidia's books. 'Fundamentals' undoubtedly figured into NVDA's surprising plunge, but the long-overdue deflation of AI hubris was surely a more powerful factor. I address this subject in a recent interview

Bitcoin is due for a bounce, so I've focused on the smallest possible instance of it on the hourly chart. It tripped a minor buy signal at 82,617 on Friday, then delivered an opportunity to take a small partial profit 86,685, the pattern's midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. The overshoot of p was slight, but it is still sufficient for us to infer the bounce will achieve the 'd' target at 88,821. Scalpers can short there provide they've made a profit on the way up and that they are able to keep entry risk down to 0.1% or less. The short squeeze powering this oversold rally could be nasty, so be prepared for significantly higher prices, albeit not to a new record high.  (UPDATE: Bitcoin is a nuisance for me to track because it never stops to observe a sabbath. The analysis above was prescient and precise, as you have come to expect from Rick's Picks. However, between the time I prepared the forecast a day ago, when this symbol was trading for around 84,630, and now (Sunday morning), it has frog-leaped higher and will soon be at my 88,821 target.  I don't ordinarily publish a new slate of touts until late Sunday afternoon, but I'm going to hit the send button on this update now, since I don't want it to appear as though I am predicting the little s.o.b.'s every move with hindsight. As long-time subscribers will have observed, it is no great trick to forecast Bitcoin's hysterics precisely and consistently using the Hidden Pivot Method.)

My hardcore deflationist point of view has saddled me with a bullish bias whenever I ponder a T-bond chart. Although this allowed me to catch the October 2023 bottom just off the low, it also caused me to see the nearly two-year dirge that has occurred since as base-building for a long bull market that has yet to materialize. I don't doubt that it's coming, presumably in conjunction with the next recession. But TLT's chart suggests it could take many months before it rises and, inversely, yields begin to fall. In the meantime, look for it to scuddle sideways, with a moderate bias to the downside that would correspond to merely somewhat higher long-term rates.  Altering our expectations in this way can help diminish the distraction of believing Trump can do something about it -- i.e., about rates determined by markets, and about high levels of debt that are crushing America's middle class. He can't, and his expansionist, credit-driven economic policies will only exacerbate the bearish trend in bonds. Suppose the small rise in their price over the last two years has completely discounted the global appeal of Trump's bold leadership and the additional demand this has created for U.S. Treasury paper. In that case, it's hard to imagine a bullish surge in T-bonds when the President's inflationary policies produce the opposite of instant economic miracles: stagflation. ______ UPDATE (Dec 3): TLT is breaking down in the context of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern begun three months ago. This is within the scope of my original tout (see above), which was intended to provide a much more accurate picture for long-term rates than the guys and gals with degrees in economics who toss darts to predict such things. Rising rates and inflation are going to increasingly hurt Trump's credibility and popularity