This week's charts take a step back to show a big picture, and an even bigger one. There is most immediately a 37.249 target that traces back to the bull cycle begun in March 2020. That's when covid madness struck and mutated unexpectedly into bullish hysteria on Wall Street. The provenance of that target is shown in the thumbnail inset. An even bigger picture that began with 8.40 silver in 2008 suggests that the bull market will top out at 53.060. Here's a chart that shows this. You can see that bulls are stalled at the 32.35 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. Conquering this barrier will require two consecutive monthly closes above it or a decisive thrust to at least 35. A surge of mania could accomplish this within the next couple of months, but my gut feeling is that it will take significantly longer than that to consolidate silver for a push above 50. There can be no guarantees, however, since all price action since May has occurred off a top that failed to exceed any prior peaks. That means the larger bull phase that tacked on $2.82 since September 2022 is not impulsive. Even so, the power of the A-B leg, which took silver from 8.40 to 49.82 in three-and-a-half years, should suffice to overcome the relative timidity of the C-D leg. We should continue to trade this vehicle with an aggressively bullish bias while remaining alert to the possibility of nasty swoons of as much as $7 that institutional carry traders use to keep their short positions from blowing up and forcing delivery.
I've hauled out a long-term chart commensurate with the ones displayed alongside this week's gold and silver touts. It shows GDXJ to be slightly ahead of the futures in a precious-metals bull market that has years to run. A close look at the rightmost bar reveals that it has slightly pierced the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of a pattern projecting to 72.73, a 45% move from here. With one more day to go in September, there's a good chance the monthly close will be above p. A second close above the pivot in October would shorten the odds that 72.73 will be achieved, but so would an upthrust to 54 or higher. That target is not the highest possible using the monthly chart; a reverse-pattern objective of 111.59 is arguable, using a= 84.72 from 2/26/10.
Bertie's push slightly past the 65,597 target shown is a bullish breakout likely to hit 72,639 if this vehicle can push past an additional, minor 'hidden' resistance at 66,820. A bigger picture projects as high as 84,634, a Hidden Pivot target that supersedes the one at 80,546 given here last week. One more 'hidden' resistance deserves a chart alert: 75,816, a 'secondary' Hidden Pivot tied to the one at 84,634. As always, an easy move through any of the four numbers I've highlighted in green would imply BRTI is likely to reach the next. This symbol is not tradable, by the way; it is a real-time composite of the best bids and offers across many bitcoin markets. Tight spreads make this a precise and very usable proxy for bitcoin itself.
The Dollar Index is breaking down following a six-week struggle to hold above 100. Support came more precisely at the 100.57 Hidden Pivot midpoint of the pattern shown, a nearly two-year downtrend that portends more downside to as low as 93.78. Since the dollar was barely able to hold the support with Powell unwilling to ease, it is logical for it to be weakening now that he has decided to go with the global flow. He can't possibly win the devaluation Olympiad, nor would he attempt it. But he has doubtless calculated that the dollar will not get kicked too savagely as long as so many other countries are trashing their currencies.
Two days of hard selling pushed the November contract down to the green line (x=66.97), triggering a 'mechanical' buy (stop 64.41) that should be good for a one-level ride, at least, to p=69.52. With pump prices down at $3 or even lower, exchange quotes should start to firm, since that's what they've done for years every time motorists got relief for a few weeks. Election-year tampering could suppress whatever rally is coming, however, along with extraordinary complacency in the face of possible war in the Middle East or Europe.
Expect stocks to continue their heedless waft into outer space until the election. They would not likely do so if investors even remotely imagined Kamala Harris might win. James Kunstler provided the most succinct reason we've heard for why this is not going to happen: "The people in this land are finally sick of a faceless blob ruling madly from the shadows," he wrote in the current edition of Clusterfuck Nation. "Mr. Trump has become a national father figure, a titanic offense to a party run by women with daddy issues and to their Marxist allies dogmatically bent on destroying the family (along with every other institution). As it happens, countries need fathers, both actual and symbolic. What a surprise!" So what about polls that show Harris and Trump neck-and-neck in some swing states? Even ostensibly conservative news outlets such as Fox and the Wall Street Journal have been reporting this as though the data were authentic. My guess is that the editors and news gatherers have all been overwhelmed by the nation's left-tilting news media into believing polls that have been massaged with poor sampling, misleading questions and purposeful misinterpretation. In reality, the believers are like the audience assembled on a barge to witness David Copperfield make the Statue of Liberty disappear. Although some in the audience would swear this happened, it didn't; the barge had simply been repositioned while a curtain was raised to obscure a large swath of the horizon. 8%-10% More Believable Although the magician eventually revealed how he did the trick, the New York Times et al. will not be called upon to explain how they levitated Ms. Harris, since she is going to lose by 20 million votes. That's a realistic number if forecaster Martin Armstrong is right, as he often is about so
The glue-sniffers who pushed the S&Ps an inch above July's record high on Thursday, only to recede from this precipice like frightened sandpipers from a rising tide, may never realize this was just the bunch of them staring at themselves in Wall Street's fun-house mirror. This coy behavior was so predictable that we might wonder whether all of them made a bundle coming in short on Friday. Of course not. But they are certain to spend the coming week bumping into each other like a throng of mental patients locked in a small room. I'll be watching their burlesque over the next few days, so stay close to the chat room and your email Notifications if you want a seat at ringside.
I've given the 449.52 rally target so much ink that it's probably time to fixate on a higher Hidden Pivot just in case. It lies at 464.76, which, because of its close proximity to July's 468.35 record, should not be expected to show precise stopping power. Still, it will lie in the bowel of what we should regard as the 'discomfort zone', just shy of the bullish breakout that nearly everyone will be expecting, Whatever hysterical price action this causes will assuredly be tradable, since it is all just impulse legs. However, I will be focused more attentively on movement above the old high, since that would create favorable psychological conditions for the kind of bull trap that wants to take everybody down with it.
Ordinarily, I'd suggest buying bitcoin aggressively if it were to fall to 47,051, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support in the chart shown, and also to use the red line as a minimum downside target. However, the uptrend looked pretty feisty as last week ended, and so we shouldn't rely on weakness to bring us bargain prices. If the opportunity should arise, though, a bid at 47,051 should be tied to a stop-loss at 41,954. If the order fills, I will provide updates to help you manage the risk. There are simple ways to cut initial risk by using lesser charts to fashion an entry trigger, so I'd suggest visiting the chat room for more-detailed guidance when appropriate. Meanwhile, a move above the 65,577 top of the bar I've circled would hint of a breakout and renewed upsurge. Upside potential over the next 4-6 months is 80,546. However, there will be risk down to 44,681, or even to 20,311, if sellers should decisively crack 47,051.
Crude's stab through the 69.61 midpoint resistance of the pattern shown all but guarantees more upside to at least 74.79. This will once again repeat a cyclical phenomenon that has not failed in years: a bottom in energy quotes whenever prices at the pump fall to $3. A cynic could almost believe oil's tiresome ups and downs are staged by a nefarious cabal to optimize their looting of the world's largest commodity market. Whatever the case, it trades like it's got the heebie-jeebies, an embarrassment not only to those who purport to regulate it, but to civilization itself.
