Rick Ackerman

The chart shows two bullish targets that are likely to be reached in the weeks and months ahead. Most immediately, there is the 7057.50 target of the smaller pattern. A more important Hidden Pivot sits well above it at 7351.25.  It is particularly important because it would max out bullish patterns on the weekly chart. Both are likely to be achieved because buyers showed little struggle overcoming the respective midpoint Hidden Pivots. Most immediately, if the December contract pulls back from between the red line (p=6798.88) and the pink one (p2=6928.19), a 'mechanical' bid at the green line (x=6669.50) would enjoy excellent odds of success. _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 4:23 p.m. EDT): Please check out my latest post in the chat room for new, potentially tradable, details. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 7:59 a.m.): See my 5:54 a.m. update in the chatroom for the latest outlook. 

We settled on MSFT, the second most valuable company in the world, as the mine canary that would signal the end of the bull market. So far, it is saying we should stick with the uptrend, albeit with one foot on the fire escape. The chart shows a logical path to the 547.12 rally target identified here earlier. It is not a done deal, since buyers did not exactly trash the midpoint resistance (p=519.75) on first contact, nor have they broken free of its gravitational pull.  Even so, there is almost no chance that p2=533.43 will not be achieved.  Any pullback to the green line (x=506.06) in the meantime should be regarded as an excellent 'mechanical' buying opportunity. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 2:59 p.m. EDT): Microsoft's decision to dive into fee-based AI has tacked on yet more hundreds of billions of gaseous 'wealth-effect' value to its shares.  Today's volumeless stab through the green line (x=543.00) has shortened the odds of a further run-up to p=592.94. I have my doubts the stock will achieve D=692.83, so we should be ready to short the bejeezus out of it at p, provided we've made plenty of dough on the way up.  Here's the chart.  

The 'reverse' pattern shown has worked perfectly so far, triggering no fewer than three consecutive trades that produced a profit. The first was a conventional long at the green line, followed by a short at the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 4172.70.  The last, an easy winner initiated as a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=4071,70), remained 'live' as the week ended. This series of winners strongly implies that December Gold will achieve the 4223.20 target shown. The futures would become a compelling short at that price, assuming you've made some money on the way up and that you know how to limit entry risk to small change. I have one outstanding target at 5020 that was identified here earlier. Its provenance is not nearly as clear as the targets we've been using, however, and that's why I am going to stick with the lesser charts for the foreseeable future. If the current move should impale d=4223.20, that would open up a clear path to at least 4351.30, a tad beneath the old high at 4398; or to 4461.30 if any higher.  (For a detailed discussion of a somewhat bigger picture, see my 13:51 post in the chat room on Saturday.) _____  UPDATE (Oct 29, 11:28 a.m. EDT): While we were waiting, a $10,000 trade dropped neatly into our lap. See the chat room thread from yesterday and this morning for precise details.  _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 6:50 p.m.): I used a big-picture chart in the chat room last Saturday to lend perspective to a discussion about gold's so-far mild correction. EWT forecasters appear to disagree about where and when the retracement will end. Since then, a lesser chart using Hidden Pivot levels has evolved to suggest the correction could already be over. This interpretation would be strengthened by a pop

The chart replicates the bullish pattern shown this week for gold (see above), although silver has yet to deliver any winning trades. Near-misses were another story, however, since the pattern would have yielded a theoretical $12,540 gain on a single contract if Thursday's 49.225 high had been just a slightly higher 49.328. The second of the two trades that would have resulted would have been a 'long' at the green line (x-48.074) that would have shown a small profit at the bell on Friday. (For details, check out my 21:21 post in the chat room Thursday night.)  Looking just ahead, I expect gold to pull silver higher when the week begins. That implies a push past p=49.328, followed by a run-up to at least p2=50.581, or to d=51.835 if any higher._______ UPDATE (Oct 27, 1:24 p.m.): This morning's plunge through the red line (p=46.650) means the downtrend is likely to continue to at least D=44.145.  This is even though the pattern is a conventional one that every trader on Earth is aware of. A bounce up to the green line (x=47.903)  should be shorted 'mechanically' with a small-pattern 'camo' trigger.

GDXJ ended the week just shy of triggering a theoretical sell signal that could extend the so-far 18% drop from last week's record 112.45. If it slips beneath the green line to start the week, look for more weakness down to at least p=90.18, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support. The ETF will be ripe for bottom-fishing down there, presumably with a reverse-pattern trigger to reduce risk. A decisive breach of p, especially on first contact, would imply that more slippage to p2=86.38, at least, is likely. Worst case over the next 2-3 days would be 82.59, the pattern's D target.

Bitcoin is on a buy signal that triggered last Wednesday at 108,278 following the sharp reversal of a fleeting spike. A balky recovery has turned the position moderately profitable, with a paper gain of $2642 so far. However, the rally will need to tack on another $2,000 to reach the red line (p=113,039), where partial profit-taking on half the position (four round lots initially, as is customary) would become obligatory.  Risk management thereafter would be predicated on a 122,562 target, but a 103,515 stop-loss will remain in force until then. _______ UPDATE (Oct 26, 5:41 p.m. EDT):  Ka-ching! Anyone who followed my simple instructions from last Wednesday could have exited on today's leap to 113,473 for a profit of $4076.  The secondary Hidden Pivot at 117,801 is the next logical objective, but I am not recommending a new position until I've heard from subscribers who caught the current move. 

Friday's short-squeeze bounce came from within a hair of the 'secondary' (p2) Hidden Pivot of the pattern shown. The rally subsequently signaled a short sale when it hit the green line (x=6700.19).  The trade was do-able only if you used a reverse-pattern trigger to limit risk. I'm not going to recommend it because the futures are already starting to feel the magnetic pull of last week's high, 6766.75. However, we can still record a paper-trade and monitor it closely to determine whether bulls or bears are in charge at the moment. If the latter, the short should work, eventually falling to D=6500.00 despite the fright-mask intensity of Friday's rebound.

I featured Microsoft at the top of last week's list because it looked primed to test my theory that the bull market is over. The stock did in fact go against the bearish grain by triggering a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=506.00).  The subsequent rally has yet to develop legs, however, and would need to pop decisively above p=519.75 to offer a profit-taking opportunity as well as evidence MSFT is capable of reaching the 547.12 target. If that is what the world's second-most-valuable company's shares are about to do, it means the broad averages are going to rally strongly as well. My gut feeling is that this bounce will not be memorable, let alone record-breaking, but I'm keeping an open mind.

The bull market begun in May continues to make slow progress as it head-butts resistance at the 91.24 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown. Because bulls have pushed past it slightly, any swoon to the green line would be a 'mechanical' buy. Such weakness would equate to a perhaps fleeting spike in long-term interest rates, which, although unlikely, is not inconceivable. The rally in Treasurys is ironic because Trump's obsession with stimulus has put a great deal of pressure on U.S. debt. However, it is the President's bold leadership that has attracted bond buyers from around the world, reducing pressure on the Fed to mop up paper for which there might otherwise be weak demand. It is a big change from Biden, a walking corpse whose style of governing was enough to give investors in the U.S. and abroad the dry heaves.  For your information, a rally to the 94.02 target would equate to a fall in long-term rates from a current 4.60 % to 4.39%. Although that's not enough to shift re-fis into second gear, it certainly would be a positive for the U.S. economy.