Rick Ackerman

GDXJ has settled into a tiresome dirge comparable to gold's and looks vulnerable to a further fall to as low as D=31.62. First it will need to test the midpoint support at 33.44, which, because it closely coincides with some lows recorded in January, will take discernment to leverage. My suggestion is to use a 37-cent trigger interval to set up a 'buy' with equal potential.  As always, a decisive penetration of p=33.44 would portend more slippage to p2=32.53, at least.

Here are a couple of headlines concerning the economy that appeared atop Bloomberg's front page on the same day last week. Taken together, they could make one's head spin. First the happy news: IMF Lifts World GDP Outlook on U.S. Strength. But here's the article just beneath: UPS to Cut 12,000 Jobs. A case of schizophrenia on the copy desk -- or were they just trying to be provocative? Since no mainstream news outlet save USA Today out-cheerleads the economy (and crime-infested Gotham) more obnoxiously than Bloomberg, we can assume that the UPS layoffs were simply too important to bury on an inside page. The company is one of America's biggest employers, and its ubiquitous delivery trucks are a visual bellwether for the economy -- so much so that it would not exaggerate to say, "As UPS goes, so goes the nation." Amazon has been laying off as well, but it is predictable that both stories will ultimately get less ink than Facebook's whoopee-cushion leap Thursday triggered by an earnings beat and some other smiley-face 'surprises' from Zuckerberg.  The glorified advertising firm's shares tacked on an instant $66 after the close, adding a reported $200 billion to the global ledger and $50 billion to Zuckerberg's s piggy bank. We've discussed these wild but frequent effusions before, and how they contribute enormous sums to the 'wealth effect' without altering the economy in any real or constructive way. Sure, a few of the big winners will reward themselves for all their hard work by buying ocean-going yachts and Lamborghinis in crazy colors. But most of the money will get plowed right back into the market, the better to pump still more gaseous wealth into a handful of stocks held unto death by portfolio managers. A Dollar Krakatoa Actually, even hydrogen has more

The rally off the last low, 82.42, has been so unimpressive that we must consider the possibility of more downside to at least p=78.05 as the most likely scenario for the winter months. TLT would be a screaming buy at that price, although without any guarantees of a rip-roaring rally capable of surpassing the December 2022 peak at 109.68. Not coincidentally, the chart of TYX, which tracks interest rates on the long bond, has signaled a 'mechanical' buy for a move to as high as 6.16% (!). That number seems unreal, since the economy, along with the banking system, would almost surely collapse long before rates got that high. Or would they? In any event, the buy signal is about as 'textbook' as they get, so we'll need to take it seriously even if we can't understand it.

I won't queer the voodoo magic of a major rally target I mentioned here last week by repeating it in boldface, but the number is 4950.00, a Hidden Pivot resistance, and I was itching to get short there. The actual high, a new all-time record, was 4935.00 -- close enough to the target that Mr. Market could conceivably be working behind the scenes to deny us a shot at a potentially big winner. However, Friday's close was above the midpoint of the day's range, and there's still a high-probability target outstanding in Microsoft, so we'll assume our opportunity to pile on is intact.

The 'mechanical' short I mentioned here last week came home to roost with a pop through the green line (x=193.54) on Monday. OE (Option Experiment) participants already hold a small bearish position in the form of a vertical put spread, but it expires on Friday and won't come alive unless the stock tanks $10. That's hardly impossible, but I was reluctant to open a new front ahead of the weekend with an additional position.  We should trade with a bearish bias because of the 'mechanical' signal, so stay tuned to the chat room and your email notifications if you want to keep apprised. My strong gut feeling is that AAPL is much too hired to hoist itself above the 199.62 point 'C' high of the reverse pattern shown without pulling back first, possibly sharply.

I wouldn't trust a rally if it starts the week, but neither am I inclined to bottom-fish until such time as the futures drop into 'voodoo' territory just below 2000. A dip beneath two January lows near 2004 is obligatory in any event, so let's watch for it to develop. If and when that happens, we may be able to find a reverse pattern trigger of small degree to catch a ride north.  Big, meaningless days seem to be cropping up with greater frequency lately, so we should resolve to remain unexcitable if anything interesting appears to be happening.

Last Thursday's pop to the green line (x=23.154) triggered a very promising 'mechanical' short, by which I mean to imply that the pullback from it has about an 80% chance of coming down to at least the red line (p=22.58) where partial profit-taking would be warranted.  I missed the signal because I was focused on a pattern with a lower point 'A' high that needed a run-up to x=23.295 to trigger the short. We'll respect the signal in any case, starting the week with a bearish bias and a theoretical downside target at D=21.455.

GDXJ spent the week in an unpersuasive bounce from a voodoo number touched the previous week. An outside day on Wednesday that closed near the intraday low added to a mildly troubling picture, one that portends minimum downside over the near term to at least p=33.35 (see inset chart). Any slippage beneath that Hidden Pivot would of course open a path down to as low as 31.52. If we do any bottom-fishing, it should be at either p or p2=32.44.

We should probably expect crude quotes to reverse upward whenever pump prices slip below $3, since that would be just a little too peachy for the approximately 233 people who drive in the U.S. We can only hope the 78.86 Hidden Pivot target shown contains crude's current surge, since a breakout above that number wants reasons to explore a void on the chart that extends all the way up to $85/barrel. At the level, pump prices will be pushing $4/gallon, so let's cross our fingers and hope Houthis and the Blow-upfish don't up their game in the Persian Gulf. .