Rick Ackerman

By now, we've come to expect little of rallies in this vehicle, and so last week's so-far modest bounce off a secondary Hidden Pivot at 30.68 is unlikely to arouse much interest. It could run all the way up to the green line (x=36.77) and still be nothing more than a promising short. Thereafter, or perhaps before then, look for GDXJ to turn south, bound for the 27.63 target. The good news is that the pattern is a pretty one likely to produce a targeted low we can trust.

MSFT has replaced AAPL on the list for the time being, since its chart is more fun to look at. This is notwithstanding the tonnage that has been distributed between 403 and 410 over the last three weeks.  It is real and it is heavy, but we know that DaBoyz are capable of rendering it insubstantial with a short-squeeze when conditions are right. My hunch is that they will still have to take the stock down by at least $3-$4 before they can set up the volumeless leap into a sunny-and-mild wafting zone above $410. We are still focused on a target at 430.58 (or possibly 437, which comes from the weekly chart) as the place where this aging bull market will seven out.

The pattern shown, with a 2056.30 rally target, is not particularly bullish, but it looks serviceable for trading. A presumably corrective rally stalled Friday at 2026.40, the midpoint resistance, but any headway above it when the new week begins would imply the target is likely to be reached.  A 'mechanical' buy at the green line looks promising, but I'd suggest that you act only if the pullback has come from above p=2026.40, especially if it is exceeded decisively. _______ UPDATE (Feb 23): Last week's modest rally fell a few dollars shy of the 2056.30 target flagged above, but you can expect it to be reached within the next couple of days. It is shortable via a tight 'reverse pattern' for subscribers who are familiar with this tactic. The pattern can also be used for 'mechanical' buying at either p or x if the futures favor us with a swoon,

Friday's blast through p=23.03 clinched more upside to at least 24.08, the unexciting target of the pattern shown.  That would amount to a rally of just 60 cents, but if the futures thrust past this 'hidden resistance', we could look for a test of the peak at 24.895 recorded on December 22. It's too early to start counting our chickens, especially given the way the futures have underperformed since early December. But our bias will be bullish for now. Since the last correction would have trashed a 'mechanical' bid at the green line, I won't suggest attempting to buy there if the opportunity presents itself.

It took TLT more than a year to achieve the 100.25 target of the reverse pattern shown, and so the three-week-long correction that has occurred so far should be viewed as an early phase of whatever retracement is coming. That doesn't preclude the possibility of a reversal at any time, even in the next week or two, that would take this T-Bond ETF to new recovery highs. Most immediately, though, technical signs suggest the correction will come down to 91.20, and that is where we should look for signs that the worst is over. Probably not, but as always, we'll let the price action speak for itself. _______ UPDATE (Feb 23): Friday's strong rally derailed what had looked like an unavoidable descent to the 91.20 target noted above. The bounce, if that's what it is, should carry to at least p=94.94. Even at 96.80, however, the thrust would still offer a promising opportunity to get short 'mechanically' for a one-level ride south, at least.

The chart offers a moderately bullish picture of the dollar, but with one caveat: the impulsive rally last summer to 107.35 just missed exceeding a small but important peak at 107.99 recorded along the dollar's horrific plunge in late 2022/early 2023.  This subtle but significant failure does not preclude the possibility of a further rally to D=108.38.  Actually, it seems entirely likely based on the teasing interaction between buyers and the pattern's 104.50 midpoint resistance. But don't expect the C-D phase of the bull cycle begun in July to play out symmetrically relative to the A-B leg. This means it could take a while longer for the second leg to reach its destination than the 11 weeks required by the first.

[Globalism has peaked, says my colleague James Howard Kunstler, and with it a trend toward corporate bigness that has all but extinguished quality and vitality from the marketplace.  Bloated corporatism is about to come crashing down, he says, in a process of creative destruction that will allow us to rescale the economy so that it better serves our needs as individuals.  With his permission, I have reprinted his most recent essay, Think About It, from Clusterfuck Nation.  On Amazon, here's a selection of his brilliantly insightful books, many of them bestsellers  RA ] *** “It’s not enough to be against globalism or the WEF, we have to also be for something better.” — Tom Luongo, Gold, Goats ‘n Guns Mr. Luongo makes an important point. I want you to think about this: There is a reason that the WEF-Globalist cabal is losing the battle to control and dominate the rest of us. They are trying to power straight into the opposing currents of reality. Above all, they seek to centralize power and decision-making. But the world is moving in the opposite direction. All of the WEF’s aims founder on the macro trends unspooling in history. The rising rule for human affairs now is that anything organized at the giant scale is going to wobble and fail. There will not be any world government run by the creatures of Davos or Brussels, or Washington DC, or any other place that the grandiose imagine would be their seat of global power. It’s not going to happen, so you can stop worrying about it. But you’d better prepare for what is happening: everything in our world wants to get smaller, slower, finer, and more local. Anything that opposes these trends is pissing into the wind. Since every activity we humans practice has to

Here's a picture I can't recall having seen before -- and on the weekly chart, no less. We would ordinarily expect buyers to have show deference toward the 4950.00 Hidden Pivot resistance, which could not be more clear or compelling. Instead, they plowed right through it last week, turning it into a launching pad to lengthen the previous week's modest breakout. It's possible this will turn out to have been brought on by the pattern's obviousness. If so, the rally will not have much further to go until it sputters out. But the impalement of D has already been sufficient to suggest otherwise -- i.e., that it is unadulterated, muscular buying that has turned the resistance into chop suey. Regardless, I'll suggest using this extremely gnarly pattern to get a fix on the trend Sunday night/Monday morning.  Price action at p absolutely guarantees D=5061.00 will be reached, at least. If it, too, gets blown away, bears had better get out of the way. However, if the futures into creep up to D Sunday evening or at the opening, you can try shorting there with a trigger interval (TI) as tight as 4.25 points.

The pattern shown simplifies AAPL's tortured histrionics so that you can trade the stock without fear of significant loss. A drop to x=183.27, for starters, could be bought 'mechanically' for a minimum one-level ride. And D=195.33 could be shorted, albeit gingerly, with the tightest possible stop off a reverse pattern. If the stock pops through 195.33 with little effort, you can infer that the rally is about to pick up tempo and move into record territory for the third time since July.