Rick Ackerman

Bloomberg and other news sources that despise Trump and wish him ill have been asking with increasing fervor whether a recession is taking hold in the U.S.  Of course it is, as any middle-class American could have told you. But in this chart, we have a corroborating detail: long-term rates are headed lower, presumably because of a weakening economy. The two stalls since early July at the red line had seemed to imply that T-Bond futures were trapped in a bearish pattern that might at best produce sideways movement for the foreseeable future. However, this week's powerful blast through the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 87.88 suggests that T-bond prices will continue to rise at least until D=92.45 is reached. A corresponding drop in long-term rates would yield 4.49%, down significantly from the current 4.68%.  This is a high-confidence call, although there is a possibility the decline in rates will stall or reverse at 4.66%, just a hair below.

Microsoft could go either way, but we should be able to gauge its mood by paying close attention to the two levels shown in the chart. If the stock moves higher, it would trigger a minor buy signal at 506.6, which could be a good opportunity for a ride to 519.75, or even to 547.12 if the trend catches fire. Alternatively, a decisive breach of the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 493.67 would signal an imminent fall to at least 462.78, or possibly even 431.89 if any lower.  ______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 2:20 p.m. EDT): The stock finally got off the fence today with a cattle-prod assist from its clever handlers.  It popped above 506.06, tripping a buy signal to at least 519.75, but possibly as high as 547.12. This is equivalent to Punxsutawney Phil failing to see his shadow, since it will extend Springtime on Wall Street (cue up the Mel Brooks number) for yet another few weeks, or perhaps months. Please note, however, that the rally would fall a tad shy of the old high.  For those of you who are keeping track, DaBoyz effortlessly added about $88.6 billion of fraudulent 'wealth effect' to the global ledger with this morning's gap-up, short-squeeze opening.

We should soon know the intentions of Bitcoin's intrepid handlers, since the corrective move off the August 11 high at 124,533 has stalled exactly at the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown. This was a good place to have attempted tightly stopped bottom-fishing, even if we cannot yet predict with high confidence whether the bounce will mark the end of short-term weakness, or instead just a pause on the way down. However, if BTC breaks decisively lower, that would shorten the odds of more downside to p2=98,330, the secondary pivot; or even to D=89,595 if any lower.  The pattern could also mutate into a juicy 'mechanical' shorting opportunity with a dip beneath 'p' (the red line) followed by a rally back up to 115,798, the green line.

Following a sharp run-up to new record highs earlier in the week, October Gold has begun a retracement that looks likely to continue down to at least 3522.40 [corrected], the midpoint Hidden Pivot support of the pattern shown; or to as low as 3433.90 if any lower. The pivot is a logical spot to attempt bottom-fishing with a tight stop loss.  Specifically, you should use a reverse-pattern trigger interval (TI) of 3.0 points or less on the 15-minute chart if the futures fall into the range 3521.20=3522.50. If you are unfamiliar with this tactic, you should use your own method of risk management to limit entry exposure to no more than $150 per contract. _______ UPDATE (Sep 5, 4:04 p.m. EDT): The futures dipped no lower than 3544 before taking off again like a bat out of hell. This left our niggardly bid choking on dust, but not without heightening our awareness that getting aboard to augment long positions will require more aggressive bidding. In the meantime, you should use 3719.70 as a minimum upside projection for the near term. A pullback to 3448.90, however unlikely, can be bought 'mechanically' with a stop-loss at 3358.60.

There was plenty of lunatic energy at day's end, implying p2=6556 will be easily achieved (see inset chart). I stop short of rating D=6620.25 a done deal, however, and an even more important Hidden Pivot target at 6749.00 is still no better than a 50% bet to be achieved. It's not that I'm turning more bearish, just extremely cautious. The only thing the stock market has going for it is that the economy is weakening, providing an excuse for the Fed to ease. This is a pathetic way to run an economy, but it could conceivably drag out the bull market for long enough to enable stocks to benefit from something even more pathetic -- i.e., Santa Claus. Wall Street surely believes in him, even if kids no longer do. ______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 4:45 p.m. EDT): Check the Trading Room for my post on Wednesday concerning immediate prospects for the December contract. 

The recent surge missed my 86.41 rally target by 1.64, but the chart leaves little doubt it will be reached eventually. As much is clear in the ease with which buyers penetrated the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 75.16 the first time they encountered it.  Now, if this vehicle should relapse sharply, touching p=75.16, that would trigger a 'mechanical' buy at the red line, stop 71.41.  Failing that, it could still offer excellent tightly stopped bottom-fishing opportunities at either 81.47, or at 78.17 if any lower (60m, a= 70.53 on July 22).

I've set a bullish tripwire at 510.50, somewhat above current levels, to tell us whether MSFT is about to embark on a major leg up. If so, the stock market would likely follow, since Microsoft remains a key bellwether. This does not negate a 493.67 correction target where I'd intended to bottom-fish aggressively. But I'm not married to either scenario and would prefer to simply let the stock tell us how it's feeling rather than pretend we have a crystal ball. If MSFT climbs toward new highs, don't expect the ascent to be smooth. That's because the slimeballs who manipulate the stock trapped too many bulls (and short-covering bears) with July 31's lunatic leap to 555.

It was nearly three years ago that TLT tripped a sell signal tied to a Hidden Pivot target at 80.84.  This ETF proxy for T-Bonds was trading just above 102 at the time, and few could have imagined then that such a grim outlook was justified. The thumbnail chart shows an even darker possibility based on a long-term bottom at 74.38. But the graph also allows for a possible turn from p2=81.20, somewhat above our longstanding target at 80.84. This is what I believe will occur, since a further fall to 74.38, implying correspondingly higher long-term rates, would choke off expansionary pressures long before TLT could plunge to such depths. For now, though, you can use 81.20 as a minimum downside objective.

In the chat room just now, a subscriber queried me about Silver's chances of reaching $50 an ounce. I responded as follows: The long-term pattern is too obvious to deliver precision, but even lousy patterns can work in two ways: 1) generating profitable 'mechanical' entries; and 2) revealing trend strength at the midpoint. In this case, the monthly chart has provided no pullbacks sufficient to trigger a 'mechanical' bid, and that is bullish. But the year-long struggle at p=32.350 is a somewhat bearish offset. On balance, I'd say the odds of reaching the 53.06 target are about 60%. If the bull trend is going to fail, however, p2=42.705 would be a logical place for it to happen