Rick Ackerman

Years ago, I received death threats after writing in the San Francisco Examiner that Apple looked like it was about to go under.  That was in 1997, not long after Steve Jobs returned after a 12-year exile. Ironically, he was fired by the man he'd recruited in 1985 to run the show -- cue the hisses and boos -- Pepsi CEO John Sculley. Apple stock at the time was trading below $5, and the company's share of desktops had fallen into a seeming death spiral below 5%. The iPhone was ten years distant, and it appeared that nothing could save the company. How wrong I was! My Examiner column provoked such a firestorm that I recanted its conclusions a few weeks later. Any firm that enjoyed such fanatical support was unlikely to go out of business, I concluded. If only I'd bought a thousand shares at the time. I mention all of this because last week's hit-piece on Apple elicited nary a response -- not in the Rick's Picks 'comments' section, not on websites that feature my work -- not in my own chat room. For all I know, the think-piece went unremarked even in the blogosphere, where the leastmost of our concerns often devolve into bloody battles. Regardless, the premise of my commentary -- that shorting APPL and buying TSLA would prove to be a great trade — is on the record and will be tested by time. Gates Renounces His Religion For now, let's move on to a favorite topic, the fraudulent 'wealth effect' that has seized, if not the proletarian mind, then indeed the minds of the 20% who have most benefited from it. The latest faux-wealth superstars are Amazon and Microsoft.  Shares of the latter jumped $23 last week on earnings news that added about $300

Even with its unusually elongated A-B leg, the pattern shown remains the best source of tradable information we have for the runaway bull market. Price action at p suggests the 7057.50 target is likely to be reached, but until it is decisively breached, we won't concern ourselves with a still higher target at 7531.25 that was identified here earlier. As you can see, the pattern also leaves room for a few scary corrections along the way. The current one will need to come down to the red line (p=6798.88), however, before I suggest buying there 'mechanically'. We usually do these trades on pullbacks to the green line, but in this case, given the steepness of the uptrend, that opportunity may not materialize. The 'textbook' stop-loss for this trade would be at 6712.50, but in practice, we would use a 'camo' trigger to pare down theoretical entry risk by at least 90%. _______ UPDATE (Nov 3, 2:35 p.m.): Today's refreshing plunge has brought greater clarity to the immediate outlook. You can expect the futures to fall to a tradable low at 6681.75. If they rally first to 6885.7, short the crap out of them, stop 6954.00. The latter trade should be done only with a 'camo' trigger that cuts theoretical entry risk to no more than $400 per contract, and only if you've caught a profitable piece of the ride up. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 2025): DaBoyz used every sleazy trick in the book to spike ES (see my explanation in the chat room), but they couldn't even goose it to the red line (p=6865.63) before buyers turned tail at day's end. Use the pattern shown, ugly but serviceable, to determine whether They will eventually succeed. A decisive thrust past 'p', especially followed by a close above it, will imply that dangerous

Here's a long-term trading opportunity that seems foolproof: short Apple shares and buy Tesla. Looking out over the next 10 years, this hedge position has the potential to produce outsize profits. How could Apple stumble badly enough to make it work? This is hardly inconceivable. Since Steve Jobs died 14 years ago, the company he co-founded has demonstrated again and again that it couldn't innovate its way out of a wet paper bag. How many more iPhone versions will it take to solve the battery-drain problem? Whatever happened to the Apple car? And how about the device that was going to manage your TV and all of your home entertainment gizmos with a single remote control? Apple's new-products division has repeatedly failed to deliver, and its idea of a technological breakthrough is an iPhone camera with a longer lens and a few million more pixels. As for the AI mania that is raging in the tech sector, the Cupertino-based firm doesn't even have a horse in the race. It wouldn't be the first time an iconic company failed to keep up with the times. Here's a partial list of shockers to remind you how often this has happened: Eastman Kodak, RCA, Intel, Radio Shack, Enron, Woolworth's, Compaq, Digital Equipment Corp. and Polaroid. One could argue that none of these stalwarts achieved Apple's size or market share. True enough, but that hardly guarantees unforeseeable changes in telephony will not blindside Apple. The Pi Phone Tesla and Elon Musk, on the other hand, have the vision not only to see the changes coming, but to bend them toward opportunity. The Pi phone, a potential category killer, is a good example. Musk has repeatedly denied that this device is even on the drawing board, and Wall Street seems to believe him. But why

The chart shows two bullish targets that are likely to be reached in the weeks and months ahead. Most immediately, there is the 7057.50 target of the smaller pattern. A more important Hidden Pivot sits well above it at 7351.25.  It is particularly important because it would max out bullish patterns on the weekly chart. Both are likely to be achieved because buyers showed little struggle overcoming the respective midpoint Hidden Pivots. Most immediately, if the December contract pulls back from between the red line (p=6798.88) and the pink one (p2=6928.19), a 'mechanical' bid at the green line (x=6669.50) would enjoy excellent odds of success. _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 4:23 p.m. EDT): Please check out my latest post in the chat room for new, potentially tradable, details. _______ UPDATE (Nov 6, 7:59 a.m.): See my 5:54 a.m. update in the chatroom for the latest outlook. 

We settled on MSFT, the second most valuable company in the world, as the mine canary that would signal the end of the bull market. So far, it is saying we should stick with the uptrend, albeit with one foot on the fire escape. The chart shows a logical path to the 547.12 rally target identified here earlier. It is not a done deal, since buyers did not exactly trash the midpoint resistance (p=519.75) on first contact, nor have they broken free of its gravitational pull.  Even so, there is almost no chance that p2=533.43 will not be achieved.  Any pullback to the green line (x=506.06) in the meantime should be regarded as an excellent 'mechanical' buying opportunity. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 2:59 p.m. EDT): Microsoft's decision to dive into fee-based AI has tacked on yet more hundreds of billions of gaseous 'wealth-effect' value to its shares.  Today's volumeless stab through the green line (x=543.00) has shortened the odds of a further run-up to p=592.94. I have my doubts the stock will achieve D=692.83, so we should be ready to short the bejeezus out of it at p, provided we've made plenty of dough on the way up.  Here's the chart.  

The 'reverse' pattern shown has worked perfectly so far, triggering no fewer than three consecutive trades that produced a profit. The first was a conventional long at the green line, followed by a short at the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 4172.70.  The last, an easy winner initiated as a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=4071,70), remained 'live' as the week ended. This series of winners strongly implies that December Gold will achieve the 4223.20 target shown. The futures would become a compelling short at that price, assuming you've made some money on the way up and that you know how to limit entry risk to small change. I have one outstanding target at 5020 that was identified here earlier. Its provenance is not nearly as clear as the targets we've been using, however, and that's why I am going to stick with the lesser charts for the foreseeable future. If the current move should impale d=4223.20, that would open up a clear path to at least 4351.30, a tad beneath the old high at 4398; or to 4461.30 if any higher.  (For a detailed discussion of a somewhat bigger picture, see my 13:51 post in the chat room on Saturday.) _____  UPDATE (Oct 29, 11:28 a.m. EDT): While we were waiting, a $10,000 trade dropped neatly into our lap. See the chat room thread from yesterday and this morning for precise details.  _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 6:50 p.m.): I used a big-picture chart in the chat room last Saturday to lend perspective to a discussion about gold's so-far mild correction. EWT forecasters appear to disagree about where and when the retracement will end. Since then, a lesser chart using Hidden Pivot levels has evolved to suggest the correction could already be over. This interpretation would be strengthened by a pop

The chart replicates the bullish pattern shown this week for gold (see above), although silver has yet to deliver any winning trades. Near-misses were another story, however, since the pattern would have yielded a theoretical $12,540 gain on a single contract if Thursday's 49.225 high had been just a slightly higher 49.328. The second of the two trades that would have resulted would have been a 'long' at the green line (x-48.074) that would have shown a small profit at the bell on Friday. (For details, check out my 21:21 post in the chat room Thursday night.)  Looking just ahead, I expect gold to pull silver higher when the week begins. That implies a push past p=49.328, followed by a run-up to at least p2=50.581, or to d=51.835 if any higher._______ UPDATE (Oct 27, 1:24 p.m.): This morning's plunge through the red line (p=46.650) means the downtrend is likely to continue to at least D=44.145.  This is even though the pattern is a conventional one that every trader on Earth is aware of. A bounce up to the green line (x=47.903)  should be shorted 'mechanically' with a small-pattern 'camo' trigger.

GDXJ ended the week just shy of triggering a theoretical sell signal that could extend the so-far 18% drop from last week's record 112.45. If it slips beneath the green line to start the week, look for more weakness down to at least p=90.18, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support. The ETF will be ripe for bottom-fishing down there, presumably with a reverse-pattern trigger to reduce risk. A decisive breach of p, especially on first contact, would imply that more slippage to p2=86.38, at least, is likely. Worst case over the next 2-3 days would be 82.59, the pattern's D target.

Bitcoin is on a buy signal that triggered last Wednesday at 108,278 following the sharp reversal of a fleeting spike. A balky recovery has turned the position moderately profitable, with a paper gain of $2642 so far. However, the rally will need to tack on another $2,000 to reach the red line (p=113,039), where partial profit-taking on half the position (four round lots initially, as is customary) would become obligatory.  Risk management thereafter would be predicated on a 122,562 target, but a 103,515 stop-loss will remain in force until then. _______ UPDATE (Oct 26, 5:41 p.m. EDT):  Ka-ching! Anyone who followed my simple instructions from last Wednesday could have exited on today's leap to 113,473 for a profit of $4076.  The secondary Hidden Pivot at 117,801 is the next logical objective, but I am not recommending a new position until I've heard from subscribers who caught the current move.