December Gold remains nicely on track for a move to at least 2803.40, the 'D' Hidden Pivot resistance shown in the chart. As noted earlier, the futures should be presumed headed to 2940.10 if they push past the lower resistance easily. I doubt this will happen, however, given the month-long stall at p=2576.70. I also doubt that buyers are ready to embark on a move capable of replicating the steepness of the A-B leg, and we may see a dip beneath Sep 30's 2646.20 low to give the next rally more running room. In any case, trading can be done using reverse patterns on the lesser charts that go back as little as 4-6 days.
See Friday's chat room discussion for a detailed explanation of a 33.23 forecast for this vehicle last Wednesday that caught the top of Friday's spike high and a so-far 94-cent plunge within half a penny -- a single tick. One contract shorted at the top could have produced a gain of as much as $4700 in a little more than two hours. Looking just ahead, I have used a daily chart (click on thumbnail inset) to project a 33.505 target for the next thrust. Although a pullback from Friday's high that touches the red line (p=32.33, a midpoint Hidden Pivot), would trigger a 'mechanical' buy, I am recommending that you attempt this only at the green line, and only if you know how to use a 'camouflage' trigger to cut the $3000 theoretical entry risk by 85%-90%. _______ UPDATE (Oct 8, 12:22 p.m.): The selling has turned ugly this morning, crushing d=30.565 (daily chart a=30.670 on 8/26). The futures are screwing the pooch now after having marginally penetrated the p support of a pattern that projects to as low as 27.65(!) As of the moment, however, the bunco artists who engineered today's shakedown may be able to do no worse than mildly breaching p=30.438. Here's a chart that shows it all.
The reverse pattern shown looks like it will be useful for our purposes, most immediately tightly stopped bottom-fishing at the 47.31 midpoint Hidden Pivot support. If there were a pop through c=51.74 instead without first dipping to p, that would be quite bullish. However, more backing and filling will probably be needed before GDXJ is off and running again. As always, a decisive penetration of a 'hidden' support would imply the likelihood of further slippage to the next. That would be the secondary pivot at 45.09. Maximum downside over the next several weeks would be to the d target at 42.87. _______ UPDATE (Oct 8, 12:15 p.m. EDT): The downside penetration of p=47.31 this morning is decisive enough to imply more weakness to at least p2=45.09.
Last week's moderate rally brought this real-time bitcoin proxy close to triggering a 'mechanical' short at the green line, 63,368. Downside potential thereafter would be to 54,070 or even to 47,051 before bulls could get traction for a sustained move to new record highs. The textbook stop-loss would be at 66,467, implying $3,100 of entry risk, but you should visit the Rick's Picks trading room for guidance if you want to learn how to cut that by as much as 95% with a 'camouflage' trigger. The correction from the record 73,791 peak recorded in March has been insufferably tedious, but bitcoin's deep-pocket handlers are in no hurry to make their move, since they face very little selling pressure. Who'd want to short the stuff when there is always a threat that cryptos will become impossible to borrow?
I've drawn a hypothetical rally to the 78.39 target as a straight line. Although the sharp move through p=71.50 makes the target very likely to be achieved, we should be prepared for countertrend swings that we can buy 'mechanically' to get a profitable piece of the trend. (Of course, fading minor trends within bigger ones will always be possible.) The uptrend is strong enough that we could expect to profit with a 'red-line mechanical' bid at p, stop 69.20. A stop-loss that wide won't be necessary, however, since we have better tools at our disposal to cut textbook risk by as much as 95%. Let me note in passing that, for years, we've seen crude turn higher without fail each time pump prices fell to $3. Could there be better evidence that the biggest commodity market in the world is as crooked and sleazy as a three-card monte game on a midtown Manhattan sidewalk?
If you can keep a cool head while everyone around you is panicking, perhaps you don't understand the situation. That's what they say, anyway. It is exactly what we saw last week when stocks barely shrugged even as the shooting war in the Middle East took another baby step toward nuclear conflagration. The oil markets certainly recognized the danger, spiking sharply after our titular president warned that Israeli warplanes might soon start targeting Iran's refineries. Energy quotes scored their biggest weekly gain in years while stocks, although relatively subdued, appeared to consolidate for yet another psychotic upthrust. What seemed to matter most on Wall Street was not the threat of cities going up in flames, but a few meaningless, cooked job stats implying that droplets of juice from America's financial bacchanal have begun to trickle into the parched gullets of gig workers, nurses and cocktail waitresses (if not yet retail clerks). Longshoremen could join them shortly with a 62% raise to $69 an hour, including the union's legendary no-shows. It's a little late in the Kondratief cycle for them to become rentiers, but the prospect of owning a few shares of Nvidia seems realistic enough. Although keeping up with the Joneses has gotten easier because the Joneses' inflation-adjusted net worth has been stagnant for 50 years, chasing inflation has only grown harder. And that's measured against phony data that understate inflation by half. Take heart, all you working stiffs: beating inflation is going to be a cakewalk when the next recession brings it down to, like, minus five percent. What About Microsoft? Speaking of recession, this IBM chart, even to the unschooled eye, suggests the Beamer may be about to reverse in a big way. Although I have never tracked the company's shares closely, there may be a few old-timers
Gold's ballistic ascent over the last three weeks has left doubters choking on dust. It has also practically clinched a further run-up to our longstanding target at 2803.40, a Hidden Pivot equivalent to one at 2771 that we used for the October contract. Although it's useful to have a 'guarantee' that a rally target will be reached, a drawback is that the uptrend has been too strong to give us the one-level pullback we require to craft low-risk 'mechanical' entries. They are possible nonetheless on charts of lesser degree, but the opportunities tend to arise during the day or before dawn in NYC. For that reason, you should stay close to the chat room if you trade this vehicle or want to augment a long-term position. If you're wondering how sliding 'A' down to October 6's 1933.00 low would change the outlook, here's a Hidden Pivot rally target to hitch your wagon to: 2940.10.
The pattern shown makes the 5868.50 target look like it can't miss. But it will, if not by much. It is too obvious a picture to yield a precise top and a sharp pullback from D that causes permabears to dance in the streets. Everyone is aware of this ABCD, even the math majors, and the mere anticipation of its final gasp is all but certain to queer D's voodoo stopping-power. But the pattern's Newtonian heft is also compelling -- so much so that the futures are unlikely to get past D without a struggle if at all. One thing that is all but certain is that D is going to be reached before the Fat Lady can sing. The way buyers fisted p=5518.75 the first time they encountered this midpoint Hidden Pivot tells us that. Whatever happens, we'll be looking to short a topping process rather than a top. Stay close to the chat room and keep your email 'Notifications' turned on if you don't fancy being outsmarted by this creaky ship of fools.
MSFT has gone flaccid -- deservedly so, given September's steep run-up. I haven't given up on the 449.52 bull market target featured here for the last six weeks, but I am currently favoring a more ambitious one at 464.76 that provides extra room for a bull that has seemed all but unstoppable since 2009. Both are derived from the reverse pattern shown, and each should evince sufficient stopping power to be shortable. We are unlikely to be gifted with a pullback to the green line for a 'mechanical' entry. However, a somewhat less appealing opportunity would materialize on a correction down to p=425.17. A bid there would require a stop-loss at 411.97.
TLT's tortuous ascent still looks bound for 105.49, a Hidden Pivot target derived from a bull cycle that dates back to October 2023, when this proxy for the long bond was trading around 82. A corresponding fall in long-term rates would bring them down to 3.64%. The trajectory of both charts suggests the targets could be reached by late this year or early in 2025. It is logical to infer that a recession would be well under way with rates at those levels since the Fed could not conceivably force them down by purchasing massive amounts of Treasury debt. Foreigners could do the job for them if there is a global flight to safety for reasons beyond imagining,
