Although last week's high at 47.25 fell well shy of the 49.02 Hidden Pivot target I'd identified, the chart shows more promise and potential than that of gold itself. GDXJ became a theoretical 'mechanical' buy when it touched the red line (p=44.52) Thursday on the way down, but I'd suggest waiting for the correction to hit x=42.20 before attempting to bottom-fish. FYI, the stop-loss for the red-line 'mechanical' buy that has already triggered would be at 42.97, but I am not recommending this trade because I expect this junior-miner proxy to trade lower.
Is the bull market about to come crashing down, or will we have to wait until autumn when such disasters traditionally occur? I'm a traditionalist myself and expect the bear that's looming to usher in America's umpteenth panic and sixth full-blown depression. The hard times ahead will see the collapse of private and public pension systems, the triaging of Medicare, relentless waves of bankruptcies, and the rewriting of most mortgages so that the current occupants can stay on as tenants or sharecroppers. The dollar will be very strong, but not in the good way, since debtors will have to make payments unto death in hard currency. All of this is unavoidable no matter what you read; it is only a question of when. There will always be optimists who think the bull market is never going to end, but they are obviously not paying attention. They have much in common with delusionists who still think the covid "vaccine" was a blessing even though it has killed millions and continues to stop athletes in particular dead in their tracks. Many still adore the pathological liar Fauci, and Facebook's Zuckerberg, who financed enough ballot harvesting in 2020 to subvert the election. The true believers are so crazy they probably believe that Nvidia, having achieved a $3 trillion valuation, is about to double again in the next 12 months. Wave Theorists 'Divided' So why do we think the bull market begun in 2009 still has a ways to go? For one, although Elliott Wave experts seem divided on whether the top is already in, some of the better ones (Walter Murphy, for one) have noted that market breadth -- the percentage of stocks participating in the rally -- has not gone sufficiently out-of-whack to set up the haymaker. Concerning seasonality, there was an
Although a swoon to the green line (x=5108) would set up an appealing opportunity to bottom-fish there 'mechanically', I now doubt that the implied bounce would reach D=5542. More likely is that it would fail at p=5253 or lower, creating a secondary top that would still be seductive enough to trap bulls and bears alike (the latter via a short squeeze). There is another visually appealing possibility that rates equal mention: a feint next week to p2=5397, as suggested here earlier. I will continue to monitor the lesser charts diligently for signs of one outcome or the other. If the swoon is coming soon, it will likely be signaled by the futures' failure to achieve 'D' rally targets of minor degree, and to overshoot minor 'd' corrective targets.
The gap opening above the green line last Wednesday triggered a theoretical 'buy' signal on the daily chart. It was the third such signal this year, but because it is coming from a lower corrective low, odds are better that the low, 87.34 (4/25), will endure. Adding to the incipiently bullish picture, the week's summit exceeded the highest 'd' target that could have been projected using an rABC pattern on this chart. It's a long way to p=96.06, where price action could help us handicap the odds of D=104.78 being reached, but that Hidden Pivot target can serve as our minimum upside objective for now
The move past p=5253.00 was accomplished with such ease that further upside to at least p2=5397.75 should not be doubted. There appears to be sufficient power, actually, to reach D=5542.50, but we'll be paying particularly close attention to signs of a downturn from the lower number, since getting there would represent the marginal breakout that has the unique power to trap all players badly at the top. Meanwhile, a pullback on the lesser charts could provide an opportunity to get aboard belatedly, or to augment an existing position, with relatively little risk.
The 430.58 target first broached here in 2023 has shown remarkable pluck, but it seems fated to give way, if perhaps only marginally, because of last week's poke above a challenging 421.63 Hidden Pivot resistance derived from a lesser pattern. There is no logical rationale for a strong burst higher right now, but we cannot rule it out because the stock market remains in the grip of mass psychosis. We'll remain on high alert nonetheless, ready to exploit a head-fake that could provide exceptional leverage for a precisely timed purchase of put options. On the weekly chart, using A=366.50 from 1/5 yields a 452.35 target that looks well suited to that purpose.
I've returned AAPL to the list temporarily because a rally to the 198.03 'reverse target' shown in the chart would set up a juicy shorting opportunity. It could take a couple of weeks for the stock to get there, and you can trade it from the long side until that happens, but it promises to be worth the wait. For now, the company's aggressive infusion of buyback helium has given AAPL an artificial boost. Considering the $110 billion sum involved, it might seem as though this is the last stock anyone should want to short, even if the company is an innovative has-been in the same dubious pantheon as Disney. Buyback aside, the chart says AAPL is going to repeat Garbo's ominous cough in the second reel of Camille when it gets to 198.03. Stay tuned to the chat room and/or your email notifications, especially if you're new to Rick's Picks or have never in your life experienced a winning option trade.
The week ended with a subtle breakout above the 67,253 'external' peak from April 22, hinting that bitcoin's two-month-old correction is over. For analytical purposes, there are no compelling ABCD patterns on the daily chart, which remains unambiguously bullish. My hunch, however, is that Bertie is headed up to a voodoo number at 69,995, so let's make that our minimum upside objective for the time being. It will be shortable, but your trading bias should be bullish until it is reached. If the breakout turns into a fake-out, the worst I could see for the week would be a drop to 62,177, a reverse-pattern 'd' that can be bottom-fished aggressively. _______ UPDATE (May 25): Last week's correction down to 66,371 was precisely predictable, but if that low is breached following this obligatory bounce, count on more downside to 61,187 (daily chart, reverse a= 67,253 on April 22). You can play for a bounce from there, too, but if Bertie instead breaks out above highs between 70k going back to early March that have littered the chart, I'll update with appropriate guidance. ______ UPDATE (June 1): Bertie continues to play patticake with the 66,555 midpoint support that broke its fall two weeks ago to as low as D=61,187. This is the same chart as reproduced above, and nothing has changed. If it were to break down, that would have zero consequence for the bullish picture, since it has been in an extremely tedious consolidation for three months.
Last week's spirited rally stalled somewhat above a 2419 pivot I'd characterized as a lock-up. The overshoot was $8, but that is sufficient to imply more upside this week to the 2488.90 target shown in the thumbnail chart. This Hidden Pivot resistance would complete a bullish pattern begun in 2019 from 1411, so it is an important number. However, if it shows little stopping power, we could infer that another bull thrust is coming, this time to the 2553.80 target given here previously.
Silver's breakout last week above the watershed high at 30.94 recorded in August 2020 is the subject of my latest commentary. The move has opened a path to the pattern's 'D' target at 36.96, a Hidden Pivot resistance that looks capable of stopping the bull in its tracks, albeit not necessarily for good. For now, though, we should treat the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 32.42 with the same deference we give midpoint resistances (p) and supports. It can serve as a minimum objective for the moment, but also as a place to hedge or adjust long positions, or even to get short for a while. If buyers impale p2 on first contact, that would likely clinch a move to 36.96.
