It's hard not to grow impatient with MSFT's tiresome slog toward the 456.88 target shown in the chart. The stock has spent most of 2024 diddling the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 420, but it seems likely to get there eventually. The 430.58 target of a lesser pattern seemed to work well initially as a possible bull-market top, since the stock hasn't exceeded it by more than a couple of dollars after first hitting it in mid-March. But neither has it given up much ground since, a fact that attests to the confidence the stock's sponsors have that higher prices are coming.
Although we expect the bad guys to inflict as much pain and doubt on bulls as possible, Friday's $102 plunge seemed just a tad excessive. The low fell a hair beneath early May's 2308 low and $4 above round-number support at 2300. Many bulls would have been stopped out there, lightening the load for whatever bounce occurs this week. It may include two or three false starts, since few bulls could have expected the selling to reach the untested levels that it did in a single day. At best, the rebound will mirror the plunge that took place after August Gold slightly exceeded the record high 2471 achieved in mid-April. Any less than that will put the futures in jeopardy of falling another $100 to test a plateau formed there in March.
The reverse pattern shown is sufficiently authoritative to imply that July Silver is unlikely to dip significantly below the 28.815 Hidden Pivot target, at least not over the near-term. It took a brutal gang-bang by sellers to bring the futures down to the pattern's point 'C' low at 28.815, but the sleazeballs who manipulate silver's price were probably piqued by the increasingly shrill noise from bulls who felt that the metal's handlers were losing control. Bottom-fishing will enjoy favorable odds this week, so stay tuned to the chat room and turn on your email notifications if you want to stay apprised.
GDXJ fell hard to end the week, but the selling brought it down to the green line (x-42.20) to signal an enticing 'mechanical' buying opportunity. This will require care and tactical knowledge, since the low may be yet to come. If it occurs from beneath Friday's 41.89 bottom, the implied bounce might not quite reach p=44.52, where partial profit-taking would be necessary. Odds of an eventual move up to D=49.15 are still favorable, but it could take the futures 4-6 days to regain its footing after getting pounded for the last three weeks.
July Crude's easy push past p=74.72 implies that this corrective bounce will reach the 'D' target at 76.95. It should quell the rally, which will remain inconsequential until such times as May 29's 80.62 peak is surpassed. True to crude's perverse nature, news that OPEC will lift production quotas appears to have catalyzed the rally. Pump prices were coming down slowly following the April 12 top at 86.16,, but it will take a new top, even if just a minor one, to set them falling anew.
Friday's shakedown was the most brutal we've seen in, well, weeks, but we can infer it was merely corrective, since the high which preceded it exceeded the important 'external' peak at 92.76 recorded on April 4. The downtrend has farther to go nonetheless, and if you plan on bottom-fishing, I'd suggest waiting until TLT falls to at least 90.31. Please note, however, that a failure of that "hidden" support to hold would imply more slippage toward the important low at 88.68 that occurred on May 29.
A two-day close above the trendline would likely signal an end to Bertie's insufferable tease. It is a consolidation, of course, but enabled by sponsors who evidently are too gutless to lift the lid until significantly higher prices seem like a sure thing. Perhaps they can enlist the help of Roaring Kitty or some other flashy stock tout who has the ear of a malleable Wall Street Journal reporter? In any case, when Bertie finally takes off, which it sure as shootin' will, you can bet that its infinitely patient handlers are shooting for $80k or higher. ______ UPDATE (June 15): We all know that Bertie will fly toward $80,000 just as soon as its handlers sense that the time is right. Not quite yet, evidently, since this bitcoin proxy has fallen moderately since it last flirted with the trendline shown in this updated chart. The above analysis can stand, to wit: It will take a two-day close above the trendline to trigger a breakout that should be regarded as inevitable. For your further guidance, the trendline will decline to around 71,171 by Friday.
I still consider a pullback to x=5105 more likely than a move straightaway to D=5542. A subsequent rally to the target would not be a done deal, either, given the mild struggle bulls have had surmounting the midpoint Hidden Pivot's gravitational pull. Impale it they did not, and that leaves the pattern's completion to D at least mildly in doubt. We can still use p=5397 as a minimum upside objective, since that is the most logical place for this rally to stall.
Those who think the wizards at the Fed have engineered a soft landing for the grotesquely pumped U.S. economy are in for a rude awakening. Strip out the "wealth effect" from mega-cap stocks driven mostly by hot air and short covering, and the economy is already in recessionary muck. Although yacht sales reportedly are still brisk and nearly every American has booked an exotic cruise, retail sales to the broad middle class have slipped so badly that even lowly Dollar Tree is struggling for air. Consumer confidence has begun to fall because wages are again losing ground to inflation. A look ahead is even more dispiriting with AI breathing down everyone's neck, since it is potentially the biggest job-killer the global economy has ever faced. While work-saving innovations may have created more jobs than they've destroyed, it's difficult to imagine how that will happen in an era where the machines themselves are capable of rooting out inefficiency more ruthlessly than any human could. Tesla as Savior So what would a soft landing imagined by Wall Street look like? It would probably start with a 10%-15% selloff in stocks-- not quite a statistical bear market, just enough to allow investors to do some bargain-hunting ahead of the next big run-up. Car manufacturers would sink into genuine recession, but it would be cushioned by Tesla's unique ability to ride out the storm with fabulous high-tech innovations yet to be imagined. Tesla shares have already fallen nearly 60% from their 2021 highs just above $400, so the worst, we'll be told, may be past. The Street's spinmeisters would also be fixated on the prospect of lower fuel prices, lower inflation and lower interest rates. The mainstream media, too stupid and lazy to deviate from the popular narrative, would give these fantasies a boost
Friday's nutty finale should remind us that the agent responsible for such behavior is none other than...ourselves. Lest you take the vicious, end-of-day short-squeeze too seriously, the thumbnail chart puts it in perspective. The futures have in fact rolled down without even reaching 5398, the p2 'secondary pivot of the still-bullish pattern shown. They are a better bet to fall to 5108.25 first than to reach D=5542.50 straightaway. We'll be ready in any case, especially for a feint marginally above last week's record high at 5368.25. That was itself a slightly new all-time high, creating ideal conditions for a top of potentially diabolical cleverness.
