The futures made a little headway toward the 2184.80 target with a marginal penetration of the pattern's midpoint resistance, p=2086.40. The target is slightly higher than the one given earlier, which used a one-off 'A' on the hourly chart. A pullback to the green line (x=2037.10) should be treated as a gift, since it would enable a 'mechanical' buy that looks quite fetching in prospect. The implied 50-point stop-loss would demand the use of a 'camouflage' trigger designed to cut entry risk by at least 90%. I will furnish timely details if possible, so be sure to check your email 'Notifications' if the trade gets close. _____ UPDATE (Jan 5): Sellers pushed the futures down to the green line, triggering a 'mechanical' buy with an unacceptably wide stop-loss at 1987.80. I did not put out a trade because there was no a-b segment clear enough to set up a lower-risk, reverse-pattern entry. We'll spectate for now, but with the goal of jumping in on the long side if the right opportunity comes along.
Friday's selloff early in the session put Silver a tradable step ahead of Feb Gold, since it triggered a 'mechanical' buy at the green line (x=23.80) that has yet to occur in gold. There are no guarantees that the theoretically profitable bounce that occurred subsequently will keep on going, but the bullish signal would remain viable nonetheless, even if the futures slip beneath 23.80. The signal offers no assurance of a further move to D=26.86, only the likelihood of a profitable one-level move from x to p.
Although GDXJ has not reached the 41.81 rally target we've been using, I've switched to a moderately negative picture because of the way bulls got sandbagged last week after slightly exceeding a key 'external' peak at 39.70 recorded on July 18. My expectation is for the pullback down to at least p=35.20, but I'll be looking closely for the first sign of an upturn from above that 'hidden' support (which will be tradable via a 'reverse pattern'). Let's wait and see first whether the downtrend actually trips a theoretical sell signal by falling to the green line, a feat missed on Friday by just 12 cents. _______ UPDATE (Jan 5): Price action has been viciously abusive of bulls, even if swing highs and lows have been more or less predictable. The low of last week's selloff, for instance, came down to within 18 cents of the 35.20 target flagged above, but without generating any appealing bottom-fishing opportunities. We'll back away for now, since GDXJ is going to need more help from bullion futures to get rolling.
Feb Crude came down hard after peaking last week 30 cents above a level where I'd suggested looking for a set-up to get short. There was no discussion of this in the chat room, so I have not established a tracking position. The nasty tumble is good news for motorists, since it implies that $3 gas will be with us for at least a little while longer, Here in Florida, and elsewhere in the U.S. (although surely not in California), there is a chance that the price of premium gas will fall below $3. Depending on how sellers handle the 70.34 midpoint support, the weakness could continue down to as low as D=64.49.
In these way-too-interesting times, there aren't many publications that would trumpet a New Year's Eve headline like the one above. It topped the front page of the South Florida Sun Sentinel, however, a tribute to the Sunshine State's winning performance on the playing field. Two college basketball teams, University of Miami and Florida American University, made it to the NCAA Final Four, while the Panthers and the Miami Heat did much better than expected in, respectively, professional hockey and professional basketball. Many investors, too, will be hoping for a repeat of 2023. The S&Ps tacked on nearly 1,000 points since the start of the year, and that is bound to have raised their expectations for more of the same in 2024. My own forecast suggests they may be in for disappointment. Although I see the broad averages going at least somewhat higher, a moonshot looks doubtful. That's because shares of Microsoft, currently trading for around $375, look incapable of exceeding a granite 'Hidden Pivot' ceiling at $430 without experiencing a major correction or a bear market first. MSFT has taken AAPL's place as my #1 stock-market bellwether because iPhone sales will be extremely vulnerable in a recession, even as subscription revenues for Microsoft Windows/Outlook continue to roll in no matter what happens to the global economy. MSFT is therefore the single most important stock in the world, and when its long roll of the dice sevens out, that will signal the end of the stock market's near-vertical climb. Bullion Gathering Strength If there is great news coming for investors, look for it to happen in the bullion sector. Silver and gold have spent more than three years consolidating for a push that will turn $2000 into bedrock support for the latter. The move has been such a long time in
The stock has been on a short signal since it fell $4 to 195.57 to a week ago. There is implied minimum downside to p=191.52 for this presumptive correction, but a decisive breach of this Hidden Pivot support would portend more slippage to at least p2=187.46 or even to D=183.41. Since the broad averages will follow the stock whichever way it goes, we'll monitor price action at HP levels closely. AAPL has returned to normalcy, more than keeping pace with MSFT in the face of news that would rattle buyers were they not predominantly heedless psychotics and buy-and-hold chimps who purport to 'manage' portfolios.
Dollar bulls ceded more ground last week, further thwarting Powell's efforts to raise the cost of dollars so that they are no longer effectively free to speculators and money-changers. DXY's moderate slippage left it somewhat shy of wrecking an incipiently bullish pattern via a dip beneath the point 'C' low; however, the direction and rate of decline were hardly encouraging. The dollar remains on a 'mechanical' buy signal in theory, but the strategy no longer looks likely to produce a winner. If the plunge takes out C=99.59, we should brace for more slippage into the mid 90s.
Not sure why the rally couldn't go the extra millimeter to achieve the 2086.40 rally target I'd set as a minimum target last week. To ease the burden on intermittently enfeebled buyers, I've lowered the bar slightly by shifting to a slightly higher 'A', a pretty little one-off low that I might have used initially. The correspondingly low p at 2084.60 hasn't changed the fact that bulls will need to blow past it to become a good bet to reach D=2181.20. In the meantime, don't pass up an opportunity to buy a swoon to x=2036.20, provided you know how to set up a 'camo' trigger to reduce the theoretical entry risk of nearly $20,000 on four contracts.
I've synched up Silver's chart with Gold's to show that the former is slightly outperforming the latter, leading the way, as it were. Last week's penetration of the midpoint Hidden Pivot at 24.70 was not sufficiently impressive to make further progress to D=26.62 a surefire bet, but at least it's a start. Similarly to gold, a pullback to the green line at 23,744, especially early in the week, would signal an attractive 'mechanical' buy. We may be able to improvise on-the-fly, however, if there is not enough weakness to bring the futures down to our niggardly bid.
Bulls did what we asked of them last week, exceeding July's 39.70 peak on a squeeze-powered rally that ended the week. They had given up a lot of ground by day's end, but that won't diminish the authority of the impulse leg the rally created on the daily chart, and neither will the fact that the prior peak was exceeded by just 12 cents. It's all good, as they say, and we can therefore expect this vehicle to continue up to a minimum 41.81. In the meantime, any one-level pullback from 40.09 or higher would set up an opportune 'mechanical' buy, even at the red line (where a 37.22 stop-loss would obtain).
