September Silver has stopped out no fewer than four previous lows on the daily chart since this consolidation began in late May, so we'll be extra careful about where we get on and off the bullish bandwagon. We can use the reverse pattern shown to get long the next time, but because the futures breached p=30.85 and closed below it on Friday, we may have to wait until the retracement hits d=29.69 before we hop aboard. The turn could conceivably come from p2=30.27, so stay open to the possibility.
Bertie slightly overshot the D target of a corrective pattern on the weekly chart, and so I've retained my focus on a somewhat bearish picture, albeit one that is merely corrective. The implied, minimum downside target is p2=49,246, and this vehicle would trigger a 'mechanical' short if the current uptrend hits the green line (x=65,609). we'll know before then how likely this is, since a decisive upside pentration of 61,460 would be bullish. It would also shift our minimun upside target for the near term to 69,161. Both of those Hidden Pivot resistances can be found on the weekly chart, where (reverse) a=56,519 on May 3.
I've used a conservative projection even though GDXJ broke out last week, scuttling a bearish reverse pattern. It nearly touched the 47.98 rally target on Friday, although there's room to 48.29 if you slide 'A' down a tad. The very shallow retracement that occurred after the top was recorded early in the session is mildly bullish, but the selling would need to continue down to 47.19 to generate a bearish impulse leg on the 5-minute chart. It would be a minor signal, but it can nonetheless serve sa a hair-trigger warning of trouble. _______ UPDATE (Jul 16, 6:28 p.m.): Bulls have trashed enough hardy obstacles lately that it's time to shift our focus to a much bigger picture that projects as high as 72.23. Notice that GDXJ ended the week precisely at the most crucial spot on the weekly chart, p=49.02. Let's see what happens before we make an important judgment.
The dollar got hit hard on Thursday, but the weekly chart shown in the thumbnail inset puts it in perspective. DXY has been scuddling sideways since December, and there is scant evidence it will break out of the approximately five-point range in which it has spent most of 2024. It would pick up voodoo-number support 90 cents below, at 103.18, but sellers would have to pound it through p=100.57 to create even a hint of trouble. Regardless, D=93.78 is theoretically in play, so we should keep close track of lesser abcd patterns to determine which way the wind is blowing. _______ UPDATE (July 28): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
August Crude remains on track for a rendezvous with the bullish target shown, 86.66. It might require a wrenching pullback first, and so I'll mention that the red line (p=79.55) could be bought 'mechanically' with a theoretical stop-loss at 77.18. That would risk nearly $10k on four contracts initially, so we'll need to come up with an appropriate 'camouflage" strategy if the opportunity materializes. _______ UPDATE (Jul 19): Crude took a pounding toward the end of the week and now looks like it could bottom lower than where I'd initially predicted. Use p2=78.77 of this pattern as a minimum downside projection for now. You can also attempt to bottom-fish there with a reverse pattern and 'camouflage' trigger. That means executing the trade using a trigger from a chart of small degree. _______ UPDATE (Jul 23, 8:56 a.m.): With today's power dive, crude is about to bottom at or near d=76.26, the Hidden Pivot target I flagged yesterday in the chatoom when I swapped this contract for the August. Here's the updated chart.
The futures closed effortlessly above a 5606 'hidden' resistance that was not exactly chopped liver, so we should infer they are now bound for at least 5678.50, the Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart. It is theoretically shortable, especially if you know how to craft a risk-averse, camouflage 'trigger,' but your trading bias should be bullish until the target is reached. A pullback to the red line (p=5473.00) can be bought 'mechanically', stop 5405.50, but I don't expect Mr Market to gift us with such a generous buying opportunity. _______ UPDATE (July 10, 5:30 p.m.): Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! Here's an unconventional pattern with a 5879.50 target that will ave to be treated as viable because it's all we've got at the moment. Trade with a bullish bias until it is reached, or don't trade at all. Yes, the rally could fail at p2=5726, but I wouldn't want to put ideas in your head.
Since MSFT shredded the 462.80 target featured here last week, albeit without the usual ballyhoo, the stock must be presumed bound for the 509.40 target shown in the chart. This Hidden Pivot was mentioned earlier as an alternative possibility, but I also told you to be on your guard against a possible top at 494.23, midway between p2 and D. Few chartists would be looking for a turn there, and that is why we should. Your trading bias should be bullish in the meantime, at least until p2=479.06 is achieved.
Just a little higher would trigger a 'mechanical' short on the weekly chart, but the pattern is not of the highest quality, and my gut is saying not to resist the rally. A better opportunity may lie in bottom-fishing the next correction, which could be as much as $78 or as little as $39. We'll let bulls deal with resistance from July 7's top-let at 2406.70 first, but stay tuned to the chat room and your email notifications if you trade this vehicle and want to stay attuned in real time. Please note that a worst-case relapse could bring the August futures down to as low as 2204.20 without diminishing the bullish look of the long-term charts. This is unlikely in my view, but it never hurts to be prepared for whatever pain bullion is capable of dishing out.
The 'mechanical' short GDXJ triggered last week when it popped to the green line (x=45.02) is tempting, but I'll suggest spectating instead, since Comex Gold's chart is less appealing as a bear play, even a short-lived one. The shorting signal means this vehicle is likely to fall back to at least p=42.79 before it can attempt a push past the pattern's point 'C' high at 47.25. For now, we should pay close attention to abcd corrections on the lesser charts, since they will be warning of a relapse if their respective downside 'd' targets are exceeded. ______ UPDATE (Jul 12): Buyers have blown through May 20's peak at 47.25, but price action has been less bullish in gold futures, which are still on a 'mechanical' sell signal. Time will resolve this odd discrepancy, probably in bulls' favor, but I'll wait for it to happen before hazarding a forecast you can bank on.
If T-Bonds continue their hellish slide into the abyss, this ETF proxy for long-dated Treasurys should be hitting 70 around election time. So much for Wall Street's misplaced "hopes" for a helping hand from the Federal Reserve. That won't stop speculation, every time the Open Market Committee meets, that perhaps a smidgen of easing is coming toward the end of 2024. Will they never learn? Europe's moribund economies desperately need a global monetary blowout to revive the illusion of growth, but Powell isn't playing ball. Tom Luongo thinks they will stir up a banking crisis this fall in order to scare Powell into complicity. Under the circumstances, it's hard to imagine that they won't try this. If the crisis is scary enough to cause Powell to capitulate, the Davos crowd may regret getting what they wished for,
