A 2803.40 rally target we've used for months should be achieved on or before the November election. The cycle that launched December Gold on its way to this Hidden Pivot resistance began last February from 2070.60. The smooth flow of the weekly chart belies the psychological difficulty of staying on board, since Mr Slammy did his best to scare investors away with nasty swoons along the way. This made them skittish about buying into strength, which lightened the rallies of would-be sellers. Looking just ahead, a pullback to the red line (p=2576.70), however unlikely, would trigger a 'mechanical buy, stop 2501.10.
Friday's surge surpassed minor Hidden Pivot targets with such ease that there's little doubt December Silver will achieve the 37.485 target shown in the inset. The pattern is a degree smaller than the one presented here last week, which showed a 37.249 objective tracing back to the start of the covid hoax in March 2020. Although price action at p has been less than decisive, the fact that the rally provided no opportunity to buy a pullback to x=29.535 'mechanically' further implies the target(s) will be reached.
With last week's surge, bulls left a daunting midpoint resistance in the dust, putting GDXJ on track for a move to at least p2=60.62, and thence to D=72.73, a potential bull-market top. Between here and p2 lie a couple of prior peaks that could slow the ascent, and a voodoo number that capped Friday's exuberance. The weekly chart suggests that a retracement of 2.59 points would provide a low-risk opportunity to augment long positions with risk tightly controlled.
Two consecutive gap-up rallies last week sevened-out at the midpoint resistance of this reverse pattern. The failure of TLT to break free of gravity does not necessarily ordain a further correction down to x=91.88, although it has made it more likely. That would generate an appealing 'mechanical' buy signal, although we should limit our expectations thereafter to a one-level ride to the red line (p=96.42). The 105.49 'D' target would still obtain, but without the high confidence we typically seek.
Notice that crude at a current $68 per barrel has made no upward progress in nearly 20 years. Adjusting for inflation, producers have taken a big hit. However, the quadrupling of oil prices in the early 1970s left them with a base price that ensured that no Saudi prince would ever go begging for a fleet of Lamborghinis in every color of the rainbow. Although the pattern shown is bullish and allows for a move to $125, or even to $187 (!), we have little to gain speculating on when prices might break out of the constipated, $30 range that has confined them for the last three years. Crude oil, the largest, most politically rigged market in the known universe, is, to repeat, 'just a trade'. ______ UPDATE (Oct 27): And what about prices breaking downward? This will depend on when a global financial bust that has been postponed since the S&L crisis of the early 1990s comes barreling along. There is no predicting when this will occur, but when it finally does, it will crush demand for oil, along with its price. For now, though, even when prices are falling, they are relatively strong, considering that China's economy has gone slack. Their demand for fuel is what sets oil's price at the margin, One could infer that it is mainly incalculable geopolitical risks that have kept the price of crude from crashing, and bears from amassing large short positions.
Bitcoin continues to benefit from a dearth of sellers and almost zero short interest. This has made holding it aloft effortless for its deep-pocketed sponsors. A further advantage for them in maintaining this rigged market is that the banks have no skin in the game. It's not as though Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and all the others are sitting on huge bitcoin reserves. As a practical matter, most of them wouldn't touch the stuff. They talk it up for the benefit of clients who have been biding their time, waiting for the right moment to goose prices toward $100k. The weekly chart 'wants' bitcoin to correct down to at least p=47,051 (see above), but the aforementioned dearth of sellers has made it more difficult to keep this gas bag from wafting higher. It's like trying to hold a beach ball underwater. Even so, I doubt whether DaBoyz are ready to storm the ramparts with a push above the descending peaks recorded since March. Presumably, they will do so as soon as it's clear that Trump has won.
Wall Street has gone all-in for Trump, piling up such extravagant gains in the last few weeks that one might wonder what bold miracles investors expect of him. More likely, unfortunately, is that within a year or two of taking office, he will be overwhelmed by the collapse of a financial bubble that required only the hubris of America's promised return to greatness to set it in motion. Let's hope Mr. Trump gets a chance to clean house first, since Washington is a rat's nest of corruption and plots to bring down America. In the meantime, there is no arguing that the rampaging stock market has got it wrong in predicting that Harris, along with the malignant political philosophy and crackpot schemes she represents, will be overwhelmingly repudiated by voters on November 5. With a gusher of mail-in ballots already pouring in and millions of illegals ready to lend their signatures to the Democrats, it could take weeks or longer to adjudicate the results. Regardless, Trump is riding a wave so powerful that even if the Democrats double the cheating that won them the White House in 2020, they will still come up short. Liberals should listen to Harris's recent interview on Fox with Bret Baier to understand why she can't possibly win. She comes across as so empty and insipid that a conservative could almost wax nostalgic for Hillary's evil cunning and brass cojones. 'A Small Price to Pay' The biggest problem Trump will inherit lies in the Middle East, not Ukraine. He and Putin are neither friends nor enemies but seem to respect each other. This cannot be said of jihadis Trump must confront and what remains of their leadership. Israel has wiped out the terrorists' command structure, and we should expect them to try desperately to settle
[I can’t stomach news reports that take Kamala Harris’s candidacy seriously, especially articles suggesting with brazen implausibility that she is polling dead-even with Trump in some important swing states. Fortunately for those creeped out by all the tilted campaign coverage, my colleague James Howard Kunstler has compressed everything you need to know about the election into a bold, Menckenesque essay that will dazzle you with its insightfulness. He offers three scenarios, two of which could bring America to the brink of civil war. Fortunately, the third, a Trump landslide, seems the most likely and would give Americans a chance to snuff Deep State for good before it can recover from the blow. With Jim’s kind permission, here is Kamala Unwinding, his latest Clusterfuck Nation essay on substack. RA] *** “. . . we are facing a catastrophic collapse of governance. With democracy reduced to a tragedy or a farce (probably both things). . . .” — Ugo Bardi <<<<< >>>>> “As the US increasingly resembles ancient Rome, being president is more and more dangerous. Something around 35 emperors met violent deaths, most from people in and around their courts. In other words, members of the Roman Deep State. An ugly situation is brewing in and around Washington DC.” — Doug Casey ***** Don’t kid yourself: Kamala Harris does not want to be President of the United States. She doesn’t even want the ceremonial stuff, the incessant shuffling from one photo op to the next, the tedious Easter egg rolls, the prayer meetings, the turkey pardonings, the tiresome state banquets for men in strange headgear who are unfamiliar with using the fork and knife, and forbidden to sip chardonnay. . . . It’s obvious she has been played for a chump, that she was sandbagged into play-acting “the candidate” by an
[I can't stomach news reports that take Kamala Harris's candidacy seriously, especially articles suggesting with brazen implausibility that she is polling dead-even with Trump in some important swing states. Fortunately for those creeped out by all the tilted campaign coverage, my colleague James Howard Kunstler has compressed everything you need to know about the election into a bold essay that will dazzle you with its insightfulness. He offers three scenarios, two of which could bring America to the brink of civil war. Fortunately, the third, a Trump landslide, seems the most likely and would give Americans a chance to snuff Deep State for good before it can recover from the blow. With Jim's kind permission, here is Kamala Unwinding, his latest Clusterfuck Nation essay on substack. RA] *** “. . . we are facing a catastrophic collapse of governance. With democracy reduced to a tragedy or a farce (probably both things). . . ." — Ugo Bardi <<<<< >>>>> “As the US increasingly resembles ancient Rome, being president is more and more dangerous. Something around 35 emperors met violent deaths, most from people in and around their courts. In other words, members of the Roman Deep State. An ugly situation is brewing in and around Washington DC.” — Doug Casey ***** Don’t kid yourself: Kamala Harris does not want to be President of the United States. She doesn’t even want the ceremonial stuff, the incessant shuffling from one photo op to the next, the tedious Easter egg rolls, the prayer meetings, the turkey pardonings, the tiresome state banquets for men in strange headgear who are unfamiliar with using the fork and knife, and forbidden to sip chardonnay. . . . It’s obvious she has been played for a chump, that she was sandbagged into play-acting “the candidate” by an odd
I've led the list this week with our #1 bellwether, MSFT, because it may have more to tell us about the bull's condition than the E-Mini-S&Ps. They topped last week a tick from the 5868.50 rally target I'd sent out to you a week earlier, theoretically maxing out upside potential for the time being. MSFT, on the other hand, may already have topped. It has been struggling mightily against the weight of an incipient head-and-shoulder pattern that could eventually mark the top of the bull market and take the stock down 100 points. Neither chart is conclusive by itself, but taken together they argue for strong caution. In addition, MSFT never quite reached the drum-rolled 449.54 target of a lesser but still important pattern, shortening the odds that a major top is in. We'll be better able to judge once we've seen the downtrend play off the 400.47 midpoint support of this pattern, which began with an authentic, bearish impulse leg that exceeded a major external low (April 25's 388.03). Use this number as a minimum downside projection for now, and expect MSFT to drag the stock market lower. ______ UPDATE (October 18, 9:33 a.m.): A chat room denizen asked for a more granular picture, and I replied as follows: "[The stock is] a tough call, since minor ABCDs in BOTH directions have been achieving their D targets. This suggests bulls and bears are stalemated for the time being. I hate letting a head-and-shoulders pattern decide it for me, but the one linked here looks prettier by the week. Even so, a pullback to the green line (x=405.38) would trigger a promising 'mechanical' buy.
