The 2306.40 rally target we've been using for nearly a month looks like a lock-up at this point. April Gold's ascent has been so urgent that there was only one 'mechanical' opportunity to buy a pullback on the daily chart. That occurred with a dip that barely brushed the red line, never mind fell to the green one. Friday's stab above p2=2228.30 was further evidence that a run-up to D has become all but unavoidable. Even so, we should pay close attention to price action near 2290.80, the target of a much larger pattern on the weekly chart. Although I expect the futures to get past it, the closely coincident location of the two targets implies that an important top could form at the 2300 level. Note: The equivalent D target for August is 2344.60, _______ UPDATE (Apr 5, 11:28 a.m.): The June contract is closing on a potentially VERY important target at 2356.90! Here's the chart.
Last week's tedious grind eked out only a minuscule gain, but that will have little bearing on the still-strong likelihood of the 27.34 target being reached. A pullback to the green line (x=23.47) would trigger a high-caliber 'mechanical' buy, but it seems unlikely that Mr. Market will gift us with such a succulent opportunity. There will always be opportunities to get long intraday, however, so you should stay close to the chat room and your email Notifications if this vehicle interests you. _______ UPDATE (Apr 3, 10:36 a.m.): Two powerful upthrusts have brought May Silver within easy distance of the 27.34 target. If it is easily penetrated, expect more upside to 27.55, a more daunting Hidden Pivot resistance (Daily, A= 21.24 on 3/8).
The steep rally since early March has alleviated the stinginess of the overall pattern, which remains bullish nonetheless. It projects to at least 42.10 and should be considered reliable for trading purposes. That is notwithstanding mid-February's dip into deep water in the weeks that followed the triggering in January of a 'mechanical' buy at the green line. My hunch is that GDXJ will ultimately push past 42.10, breaking free of a consolidation zone that will have persisted for two years.
The 'mechanical' trade that triggered three weeks ago with a drop to x=93.40 has survived a brush with death that saw it fall to within an inch of being stopped out below C=92.01 of the pattern shown. Since then, TLT has achieved a solid gain following a theoretical 'mechanical' entry at the green line. A further run-up to D=97.58 looks like no worse than an even bet at this point, but we'll wait to see more price action at the red line before we attempt to winnow down the odds. Should I keep this symbol on the core list? WordPress failed to publish the TLT tout I'd prepared last week, but no one noticed it, including me. ______ UPDATE (Apr 2, 10:52 a.m.): Two huge gaps to start the week have put TLT in a freefall. This morning's moderate bounce has come from within a hair of a crucial Hidden Pivot target at 91.20, but if it fails, look out below!
[My colleague Charles Hugh Smith is a true outside-the-box thinker who tackles big questions with intellectual rigor and bold imagination. In the commentary below, he explains why neither our political system nor technological wizardry have been able to solve problems that threaten to topple the global economy and destroy our quality of life. You can support excellence by subscribing to his blog, Of Two Minds, on Patreon. RA] We say we want solutions, but we actually want a specific subset of solutions: those that already meet with our approval. The possibility that none of these pre-approved solutions will actually resolve the problem is rejected because we are wedded to the solutions that we want to work. The sources of our resistance to admitting that our solution is now the problem are self-evident: holding fast to an ideological certainty gives us inner security, as it provides a simplified, easy-to-grasp frame of reference, an explanation of how the world works and a wellspring of our identity. Our ideological certainties also serve as our moral compass: we believe what we believe because it is correct and therefore the best guide to solving all problems faced by humanity. If we frame all problems ideologically (i.e. politically), then there is always an ideological "solution" to every problem. If we frame all problems as solvable with technology, then there is always a technological "solution" to every problem. If we frame all problems as solvable with finance, then there is always a financial "solution" to every problem. In each of these cases, we're starting with the solution and then framing the problem so it aligns with our solution. This is not actually problem-solving, and so the solutions--all blunt instruments--fail to actually resolve the complex, knotty problems generated by dynamic open systems with interconnected feedback loops. Self-interest also
The futures missed the 5326.25 rally target last week by 3.50 points, denying us the fruits of a precisely crafted entry trigger but effectively fulfilling the target. It took a month to achieve, so we should expect any correction from these levels to last for at least 5 to 8 days. Any less would suggest bulls are all-too-eager to cut loose. If so the 5428.25 target displayed above this week's commentary can be used as a minimum upside projection. It is just a 2.6% romp from Friday's close.
Although the stock has continued to noodle around near a very major target at 430.84, I'm going to focus on the minor pattern shown, with a 439.35 target. It is clear, compelling -- and entirely likely to be reached, given Thursday's gap up through p=426.07. A pullback to x=419.43 should be bought 'mechanically', and you can also get short at the target if you've held a profitable position on the way up. For now, we'll pretend the 430.84 target doesn't exist.
I don't usually overlay a second pattern on a chart, but in this case my intention was to show how the May futures can be bought at 79.81 for a shot at D=88.69. This is a reverse-pattern set-up, and it can be done with a limit bid and a tight stop-loss, but also with a 'camouflage' trigger on a lesser chart that would limit risk even more. Use extra caution, since it wouldn't take much drama Sunday night to open the futures below d=79.81 of the rABC pattern. If tat happens, a larger reverse-pattern a-b will be in play: a= 78.80 on 1/29/24. It yields a 'd' target at 75.90 that would be the maximum correction from the recent high at 83.18. The target coincides with a voodoo number, so it would be a back-up-the-truck opportunity to get long. The large pattern would be confirmed and corroborated by a bounce precisely from 79.54, the midpoint HP support. Do not share this information with anyone, since that could queer the ABCD/abcd patterns' hidden power over the futures.
The bullish pattern shown is somewhat gnarly, but there's nothing fancy about it, and there is no reason to think the 2306.20 target, which first appeared here a while ago, will not be reached. It should be held in mind as a minimum upside projection for the near term. A mechanical buy now at the red line is problematical, however, since the uptrend failed to touch p2 before it pulled back to the line. I doubt the correction will continue all the way down to the green line (x=2073.90), but that would certainly present an appealing 'mechanical' buying opportunity.
Silver continues to look like a bull with Mad Cow's disease as it makes its way in tortuous fashion to the 27.34 rally target we've been using for the last several weeks. Friday's dirge tripped a 'mechanical' buy at the red line (p=24.76). but like gold, it failed to reach p2=26.905 before pulling back. The stop-loss would be at 23.90, and I think the trade will work. However, I am not recommending it officially because the set-up is not strictly kosher.
