The rally off the 389 low recorded on April 29 has exceeded just one 'internal' peak, meaning it is not impulsive, strictly speaking. It also left the stock well shy of the 430.82 high recorded on March 21. Subscribers will be familiar with that number by now, since it was first introduced in 2023 as a potentially very important rally target. I'll be interested to see whether the stock languishes well below the high even as the S&Ps push to a new record. We'll be on our guard in any case, prepared to short this little monster if it shows even subtle signs of topping. A reverse-pattern target at 421.63 still looks like our best bet for this to occur.
Rick Ackerman
GCM24 – June Gold (Last:2366.90)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksThe June contract has been routinely generating buy signals on the intraday charts, but the upthrust that ended the week created a strong signal on the daily chart. Judging from the ease with which buyers penetrated the green line (x=2352.40), more progress to at least p=2419.50 seems assured. That would leave the futures somewhat shy of the record 2448.80 recorded a month ago, but it would also 'magnetize' the peak to draw a test of resistance. We should pay close heed to price action at p, since a decisive push past it would put D=2553.80 solidly in play.
SIN24 – July Silver (Last:28.39)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksSilver stalled Friday precisely at the 29.00 midpoint of the bullish pattern shown. My gut feeling is that it will finish the week above this Hidden Pivot resistance, presumably bound for at least p2=30.37, and thence D=31.75. These are relatively modest targets in comparison to longer-term charts that show upside potential to 36.03 and higher, but we'll take them one at a time, the better to keep risk under tight control as we augment and hedge positions on the way up. If you're keen on trading this vehicle, please be vocal about it in the chat room.
GDXJ – Junior Gold Miner ETF (Last:43.44)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksRather than speculate on whether this vehicle will push above mid-April's 44.70 peak, I've drawn a chart that you can use to trade it knowledgeably. Friday's weakness triggered a theoretical sell signal with downside potential to as low as d=41.47. However, the pattern can be used to bottom-fish at any of the three levels yet to be achieved: p=42.92, p2=42.24 and d. In each case, you should get long with a reverse-pattern trigger that comes from the lesser intraday charts. There's a possibility the downtrend will turn from p=42.92 and go on to surpass the 44.26 high. That's why some call options acquired at p should be held for a possible swing for the fence.
BRTI – CME Bitcoin Index (Last:60,883)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksBertie has seemed too feisty lately to be prepping for a capitulation down to the 54,131 target shown. However, the pattern has been working perfectly in all respects, and the effortless downside penetration of p=60,692 on first contact strongly implies that 54,131 will eventually be achieved. The pattern also telegraphed a 'mechanical' short from x=63,973 that delivered a straightforward, anxiety-free gain of about $3,300 in just four trading days. All things considered, we'll use p2=57,411 as a minimum downside objective for the time being.
Don’t Be Fooled by Gold’s Stealth Bull
– Posted in: Free Rick's Picks The Morning LineAlthough there is no publicly traded company called Pirate's Treasure, the impressive price history displayed in the chart above is real enough. The Canadian company holds royalties to five gold mines that could conceivably rank among the largest in the world someday, according to 'Spartacus', a Rick's Picks regular known for his street savvy, his encyclopedic knowledge of the mining world, and his insightful posts in the chat room. The stock is a classic 'be right, sit tight' winner, he says, and enviable profits will be made by investors patient enough to play the waiting game. If you want to find out the real name of 'Pirate's Treasure', and of similarly promising stocks that are routinely discussed in the chat room, click here. This will give you free access to all the features and amenities of Rick's Picks, including provocative commentary and actionable 'touts' for such popular vehicles as the E-Mini S&Ps, crude oil, gold and silver futures, the Dollar Index, TLT, bitcoin, Microsoft and Apple. Put and call options are a specialty, with occasional 'Friday jackpot bets' intended to at least double or quadruple one's stake in an hour or less. (Certain caveats apply, as noted in the disclaimer below.) There are also two chat rooms that draw some of the best traders in the blogosphere. One of them is devoted mainly to timely trading ideas; the other, a 'coffee house', to more freewheeling discussion. Fahrenheit 430.58 Technical forecasts in the touts section are often precise-to-the-penny, but also intuitive. There is MSFT, for instance, which has served lately as our #1 bellwether for the bull market. We predicted in a headline last year that a 430.58 high in the stock could signal the end of the grandaddy of all bull markets. This forecast is still viable and could prove
ESM24 – June E-Mini S&Ps (Last:5194.50)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksES will become a juicy 'mechanical' shorting opportunity when it hits the green line (x=5194.50), probably on Monday or Tuesday. Entry risk is $7000 per contract, so the trade is suggested only to subscribers who know how to set up a risk-averse, 'camouflage' trigger. I posted an equally appealing trade on Friday, based on a pattern that was gnarly perfection. Unfortunately, I neglected to consider that AAPL's earnings were due out after the close. Ordinarily, I would say the pattern should have 'known' that the company was going to announce a $110 billion buyback that would send the S&Ps, if not the stock itself, into a rabid, short-squeeze. AAPL's reaction so far has been a relatively modest 7% gain, although it's possible DaBoyz will milk the news to produce yet more unearned 'wealth' when stocks start to trade Sunday night. So how did AAPL trash a bet-the-farm trading pattern? I don't know, but the short from the green line that triggered on Friday was performing well until the news hit moments after the bell. If the stock had moved lower, I'd have bet the ranch bottom-fishing the 'D' target as well. The lesson here is that we should be very careful about taking positions ahead of the close, especially if one of the biggest-cap companies in the world is about to report earnings. You should take a close look at the pattern posted in the chat room nonetheless, since it is as fine a specimen of 'gnarly' as I could imagine -- one that should work for you most of the time.
MSFT – Microsoft (Last:407.19)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksThe bullish reverse pattern shown implies that the rally that ended the week is bound for a minimum 421.63 -- still somewhat shy of a major Hidden Pivot resistance at 430.58 that has capped AAPL's bull market since mid-March. We'll wait to see how buyers handle the resistance before we infer that new record highs are coming. If so, let's be alert to the possibility that a marginal feint into record territory would fake out enough bulls and bears to set up a hellacious dive similar to one in IBM that I featured here a while back.
GCM24 – June Gold (Last:2310.10)
– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's PicksJune Gold ended the week in a dither about what comes next. Three marginal penetrations last week of the p midpoint support implied that sellers lack the conviction to push the futures down to D=2235.70. We'll be better able to judge their mood and capabilities after we've seen how the markets open Sunday evening. In any event, it would take a decisive push above C=2364.40 to suggest bulls have the wattage to take out mid-April's record peak at 2448.80.
SIN24 – July Silver (Last:26.69)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksLast week's tedium left July Silver with somewhat further to fall before sellers are likely to exhaust themselves. Specifically, the futures will need to come down to at least 25.90 for that to happen. This appears likely due to the way the downtrend crushed the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 28.045 the first time sellers encountered it following mid-April's 30.19 peak. There are no easy hooks for determining a trigger interval to bottom-fish, so we may have to calculate it in real time if and when the target is hit. Stay tuned to the chat room and your email Notifications if you care..