The 430.58 target first broached here in 2023 has shown remarkable pluck, but it seems fated to give way, if perhaps only marginally, because of last week's poke above a challenging 421.63 Hidden Pivot resistance derived from a lesser pattern. There is no logical rationale for a strong burst higher right now, but we cannot rule it out because the stock market remains in the grip of mass psychosis. We'll remain on high alert nonetheless, ready to exploit a head-fake that could provide exceptional leverage for a precisely timed purchase of put options. On the weekly chart, using A=366.50 from 1/5 yields a 452.35 target that looks well suited to that purpose.
I've returned AAPL to the list temporarily because a rally to the 198.03 'reverse target' shown in the chart would set up a juicy shorting opportunity. It could take a couple of weeks for the stock to get there, and you can trade it from the long side until that happens, but it promises to be worth the wait. For now, the company's aggressive infusion of buyback helium has given AAPL an artificial boost. Considering the $110 billion sum involved, it might seem as though this is the last stock anyone should want to short, even if the company is an innovative has-been in the same dubious pantheon as Disney. Buyback aside, the chart says AAPL is going to repeat Garbo's ominous cough in the second reel of Camille when it gets to 198.03. Stay tuned to the chat room and/or your email notifications, especially if you're new to Rick's Picks or have never in your life experienced a winning option trade.
The week ended with a subtle breakout above the 67,253 'external' peak from April 22, hinting that bitcoin's two-month-old correction is over. For analytical purposes, there are no compelling ABCD patterns on the daily chart, which remains unambiguously bullish. My hunch, however, is that Bertie is headed up to a voodoo number at 69,995, so let's make that our minimum upside objective for the time being. It will be shortable, but your trading bias should be bullish until it is reached. If the breakout turns into a fake-out, the worst I could see for the week would be a drop to 62,177, a reverse-pattern 'd' that can be bottom-fished aggressively. _______ UPDATE (May 25): Last week's correction down to 66,371 was precisely predictable, but if that low is breached following this obligatory bounce, count on more downside to 61,187 (daily chart, reverse a= 67,253 on April 22). You can play for a bounce from there, too, but if Bertie instead breaks out above highs between 70k going back to early March that have littered the chart, I'll update with appropriate guidance. ______ UPDATE (June 1): Bertie continues to play patticake with the 66,555 midpoint support that broke its fall two weeks ago to as low as D=61,187. This is the same chart as reproduced above, and nothing has changed. If it were to break down, that would have zero consequence for the bullish picture, since it has been in an extremely tedious consolidation for three months.
Last week's spirited rally stalled somewhat above a 2419 pivot I'd characterized as a lock-up. The overshoot was $8, but that is sufficient to imply more upside this week to the 2488.90 target shown in the thumbnail chart. This Hidden Pivot resistance would complete a bullish pattern begun in 2019 from 1411, so it is an important number. However, if it shows little stopping power, we could infer that another bull thrust is coming, this time to the 2553.80 target given here previously.
Silver's breakout last week above the watershed high at 30.94 recorded in August 2020 is the subject of my latest commentary. The move has opened a path to the pattern's 'D' target at 36.96, a Hidden Pivot resistance that looks capable of stopping the bull in its tracks, albeit not necessarily for good. For now, though, we should treat the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 32.42 with the same deference we give midpoint resistances (p) and supports. It can serve as a minimum objective for the moment, but also as a place to hedge or adjust long positions, or even to get short for a while. If buyers impale p2 on first contact, that would likely clinch a move to 36.96.
The long-term picture shows the dollar's three-year-old bull market to be mildly resurgent. Although the most recent rally failed to punch past October 6's 107.35 peak, the move to p2=106.44 was sufficient to keep the chart constructive. Specifically, DXY would become an appealing 'mechanical' buy if it comes down to the green line (x=102.56). Thereupon, a one-level move back to at least p=104.50 would be more or less assured, even if further upside to p2, or to D=108.38, would probably be no better than an even bet.
There were two good reasons for the June contract to have retreated from its recent high at 86.97. First was the daunting resistance from the 88.15 peak recorded nearly two years ago, and second was a coincident Hidden Pivot resistance at 88.31 that is shown in the chart. Together, with help from behind-the-scenes election-year manipulation, they stopped a move into the $90s that still seems all but ordained by the longer-term chart. In the meantime, the so-far moderate correction looks to be in no hurry to get traction. It suggests that quotes could be rangebound-to-lower until mid-summer (or so). Of course, there will always be the possibility of an exogenous event or even a black swan spiking prices outlandishly. Considering that Houthi missiles fired at tankers in the Suez caused barely a blip in quotes, however, we can assume that larger forces of supply and demand are in near-stasis at the moment and will continue to keep volatility subdued. _______ UPDATE (May 25): I'm updating with a chart of the July contract, but the comments above still apply. It has just breached a double support by dipping beneath a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 76.48 and also May's 76.36 low. It has rallied as we might have expected, since crude is the champ of fake-outs that stop out everyone, but I doubt it'll get very far.
The white-collar thieves who manipulate bullion appear to be losing their grip. Silver bulls have long wondered how prices could languish even when demand for physical appeared to overwhelm dealer supplies. Blame paper proxies for precious metals, since many if not most investors would rather store and swap the stuff in virtual form than pay to insure it in a rented vault. Bullion bankers love it that way, since they can sit on actual bars and ingots, loaning them at interest, or borrowing them for next to nothing, while everyone else trades up a storm of near-gold and near-silver pledges and IOUs. However, the steep price rise lately has threatened to upend this arrangement by increasing demand for actual bullion. Ordinarily, the thieves, a sleazy cabal that includes some of the biggest banks in the world, have relied on 'Mr Slammy' to rescue them. He appears on the scene whenever they pull their bids and let prices plunge to relative bargain levels. Within the last month, we've seen downdrafts in gold of $80 and $130 respectively, and similar moves in silver. Unfortunately for the bad guys, prices have rebounded too quickly in each instance to allow them to replenish their doubly hocked inventories on-the-cheap. Short a Billion Ounces Now it looks like they're about to get creamed. Last week, July Silver broke out on the weekly chart with enough force to imply it will reach a minimum $37 an ounce. That would represent a 16% move on top of the already impressive 28% gain achieved since late March. The chart would seem to allow little respite for the bullion bankers. (If any of you ass-bandits are reading this, the 'hidden' resistance at 32.419 shown in the chart could be your last chance to get 'em back below $37. (Note: Just
Bulls will face a crucial test at 49.02, the Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance shown in the chart. It is congruent with my outlook for gold and silver futures, which although sunny is not limitless. The target seems certain to be achieved, and your trading bias should therefore be aggressively bullish in the interim. This means naked-shorting puts is okay, provided you understand the risks and your account can handle it. Scalping against the trend would be warranted if p=49.02 is hit at the same time gold and silver futures reach their respective targets.
The armpit-sniffing monkeys who believe themselves to be in control of the markets seem to have forgotten what kicked off this too-steep rally. It was the uncannily well-timed announcement by AAPL of a $110 billion stock buyback a week earlier. Ironically, although AAPL appears to have stalled out with a relatively modest 6% gain on news they'd ginned up themselves to cover a faltering outlook, the S&Ps were as revved-up as ever last week, looking like they want to vault the previous all-time high at 5333.50 recorded on April Fool's Day. They made such dramatic progress toward that goal last week that I am not going to insist that the old high will endure. Even so, I will be on Defcon One alert to the possibility Mr. Market will set the hook for bulls and bears alike via an irresistible feint to marginal new highs. Buying power would be supplied mainly by short-covering, so look for signs that bears are getting shredded, defenestrated, mauled, tortured and impaled by oscillations near 5333.50.
