Like gold futures, GDXJ has breached the midpoint support of a reverse pattern of daily-chart degree. This implies it has farther to fall, presumably to at least p2=51.81, but possibly to d=50.55. Since it could find traction in either place, tightly stopped bottom-fishing is advised, especially if you trade this vehicle actively. Alternatively, a rally to x=54.32 would trigger a 'mechanical' signal to get short. It would be more appealing than the one I mentioned in the futures, but the trade should be tied to a tight stop.
Bitcoin is impressive for its effortless glide at ridiculous heights. In retrospect, we can see that its deep-pocketed sponsors used the 2022 crash to accumulate more of the stuff with the sort of bold confidence that is rarely seen in exchange-type markets. Do big banks that have endorsed bitcoin know something? Only that none of them will break ranks by selling cryptocurrency. The reason is that they have little in inventory; it's all just a game to them -- one with huge upside potential if bitcoin ever becomes fungible for small transactions. For the time being, though, it is only a nominally usable form of currency, inferior to credit cards or cash and held almost entirely for speculative purposes. It is just sardines for trading, not eating, as the old joke goes. Considered from a technical standpoint, the weekly chart shows a clear target of at least 81,069, about $7.300 above the record 73,791 high achieved last March. However, the correction has dragged on for so long that I doubt it is merely to support a rally that would achieve only a marginal new high. In any event, bitcoin has been compressing for long enough that it would appear DaBoyz have $100,000 in mind, and my hunch is that they will succeed in moving it there. My forecast for the stock market is not nearly as bullish, and it's difficult to imagine what scenario would drive such a divergence. However, I am not buying the silly notion that bitcoin, which has zero intrinsic value, will replace dollars as the coin of the realm, much less supersede gold as a safe haven when the banking system collapses. If anything, the implosion will forever destroy our misplaced confidence in all types of virtual money.
The Dollar Index didn't so much impale the 103.11 midpoint resistance last week as overwhelm it. This shortens the odds of DXY's achieving our 106.06 target (slightly revised) over the next 3–4 months. It is encouraging to see gold performing so well despite the pressure of a strong dollar, but also scary to imagine the implications this might hold for so deeply troubled a geopolitical world. A clear implication is that Treasury bonds and notes, not wildly popular lately, continue to be a promising place to secure one's savings. ______ UPDATE (Oct 27): Last week's steep rally pushed the Dollar Index toward the 106.06 target much more quickly than I might have expected. If bulls exceed it easily, you can be sure that a test of two important peaks near 107 that were recorded in the past year near is coming.
The futures looked like a good bet at the bell on Friday to hit the 5957.00 target shortly after trading resumes this week. The pattern shown has generated two winning bull trades so far, both at the green line, leaving one more prospective opportunity for the hat trick: a short from the 5957.00 target. It looks too obvious to work precisely, and even if it does, the Hidden Pivot resistance will not likely slow the Trump Express for long. Buyers took on a more significant 'hidden' resistance at 5868.50 last week and not only impaled it, they closed the December contract above it, all but guaranteeing more of the same.
I'd recommended a mechanical buy if MSFT came down to x=405.66 (corrected), but the correction has gotten no closer than 408.17. The signal will remain viable as long as the stock doesn't close for the week above 415.74 first. A conventional stop-loss below c=385.57 would be too wide, so you should only initiate the trade with a reverse-pattern trigger on a chart of small degree (aka 'camouflage'). Stay closely tuned to the chat room and your email 'Notifications' if you want to stay apprised in real time.
The 4.06% midpoint resistance shown in the chart has failed to stop the rate rise begun from 3.60% in September. The uptrend has been munching through this Hidden Pivot for the last week, clearing the way for a presumptive push to p2=4.29% and possibly to 4.52%. That may be good news for the dollar, but not for those who owe dollars, since repayment will become more difficult in real terms. It is worse than that, actually, since waning inflation will effectively raise the real rate and therefore the burden of all debts incurred in dollars.
A 2803.40 rally target we've used for months should be achieved on or before the November election. The cycle that launched December Gold on its way to this Hidden Pivot resistance began last February from 2070.60. The smooth flow of the weekly chart belies the psychological difficulty of staying on board, since Mr Slammy did his best to scare investors away with nasty swoons along the way. This made them skittish about buying into strength, which lightened the rallies of would-be sellers. Looking just ahead, a pullback to the red line (p=2576.70), however unlikely, would trigger a 'mechanical buy, stop 2501.10.
Friday's surge surpassed minor Hidden Pivot targets with such ease that there's little doubt December Silver will achieve the 37.485 target shown in the inset. The pattern is a degree smaller than the one presented here last week, which showed a 37.249 objective tracing back to the start of the covid hoax in March 2020. Although price action at p has been less than decisive, the fact that the rally provided no opportunity to buy a pullback to x=29.535 'mechanically' further implies the target(s) will be reached.
With last week's surge, bulls left a daunting midpoint resistance in the dust, putting GDXJ on track for a move to at least p2=60.62, and thence to D=72.73, a potential bull-market top. Between here and p2 lie a couple of prior peaks that could slow the ascent, and a voodoo number that capped Friday's exuberance. The weekly chart suggests that a retracement of 2.59 points would provide a low-risk opportunity to augment long positions with risk tightly controlled.
Two consecutive gap-up rallies last week sevened-out at the midpoint resistance of this reverse pattern. The failure of TLT to break free of gravity does not necessarily ordain a further correction down to x=91.88, although it has made it more likely. That would generate an appealing 'mechanical' buy signal, although we should limit our expectations thereafter to a one-level ride to the red line (p=96.42). The 105.49 'D' target would still obtain, but without the high confidence we typically seek.
