Although T-Bonds prices have been skittering sideways for more than three years, a further fall in this U.S. Bond proxy to at least 78.43 seems unavoidable. (Note: The numbers have been adjusted somewhat to reflect the more precise picture afforded by the weekly chart.) This implies that rates are headed higher, since they correlate inversely with T-bond prices. Yields on the 30-Year were at 4.82% when last week ended, but we might expect them to rise to around 5.5% if TLT falls to 78.43, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support. That would seem to be enough to pop the financial bubble, although we shouldn't underestimate Trump's ability to keep it intact for yet more months.
My best wishes to you all for the holiday season and the New Year. May you and yours enjoy good health, prosperity and serene contentment in 2026. My regular weekly commentaries will resume with the edition scheduled for publication on Sunday, January 4. In the meantime, trading 'touts' (see below) will update as usual late Sunday afternoon.
I've modified my outlook and coordinates following last week's punk performance and am now projecting more downside to the 72,756 target shown. However, the short-term picture would brighten moderately if the bounce from Friday's low exceeds 87,903. Thereafter, a pullback to 87,236 would signal a (very) short-term buy with a possible ride to as high as 89,236. Bitcoin's violent swings may seem fearsome, but they make it paradoxically easier to read. Nearly all of the highs and lows are tradable and turn out to have had a Hidden Pivot reason, including Friday's bottom, which occurred a micron (i.e., 0.02 percent) from a voodoo number. _______ UPDATE (Dec 28, 9:57 p.m.): Bitcoin took off with no pullback, negating our plan to get long. Does this vehicle not even trade between Saturday at 4:00 p.m. and Sunday at 6:00 p.m.? Who can keep track of such things?
DaBoyz are showing increasing strain as they struggle to keep this hoax aloft. The week ended with the third consecutive Friday when nothing happened. The day was over on the opening bar, an opportunistic short squeeze that leveraged the absence of 'sells' on the order book as the session began. All this aside, we should expect the futures to notch a new record high at 7026.50 in this holiday-shortened week, pending a move through the midpoint resistance at 6899.00. A pullback to the green line (x= 6835.25) can be bought 'mechanically', stop 6771.00, using a 'camo' trigger to pare risk. ______ UPDATE (Dec 24, 12:07 p.m.): It's hard to imagine who would want to be short the S&Ps, especially heading into Christmas/New Year's, but short-covering nonetheless is almost solely what is driving the rally. This morning's effortless move through a Hidden Pivot midpoint resistance at 6967.38 (A= 6596.25 on 11/21, hourly) has not only made 7026.50 a lock (see above), it has put that pattern's 7163.25 target well in play.
February Gold has a clear path to at least 4532.70 over the near term, a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. Price action there cannot but provide an accurate 'read' on trend strength, as well as a reliable idea of the speed and likelihood of a further rally to the conventional pattern's 'D' target at 5132.20. That is likely to be an important number for gold, and we shouldn't assume the futures will surpass it. That would leave gold well shy of the fantastic heights long predicted for this bull market by some seers. _______ UPDATE (Dec 23, 9:15 p.m.): Tonight's easy move through the 4532.70 target advertised above has shortened the odds that the rally will continue to at least 5132.20, a potentially important Hidden Pivot target.
Silver's ballistic ascent has left it out-of-synch with gold, which looks months away from a potential bull-market top. At the rate Silver is climbing, it could hit a correspondingly important target at 70.810 by Christmas. Since we should always have an alternative target lined up, I would need to create an extension with the C-D leg, shifting 'A' to the November 21 bar whose bottom is 48.710. We'll wait until 70.81 is hit before doing so, but be prepared for a significant (and tradable!) pullback when the target is hit. _____ UPDATE (Dec 23, 3:47 p.m.): The $2.07 pullback this morning from within 1.5 cents of the target billboarded above was brief and nasty, but it could have been worth as much as $10,000 per contract to anyone who traded against the trend. Silver's subsequent swift reversal to the upside suggests there is no stopping it. It has since traded within four cents of the 71.83 target of a much larger pattern aired here earlier, but only time will tell how much stopping power this major Hidden Pivot shows. _______ UPDATE (Dec 23, 9:34 p.m.): Silver futures have traded 47 cents above a 71.73 target that comes from the weekly composite chart. Visually, the overshoot is inconsequential, and the target itself, although imprecise because it comes from a blended chart, is too compelling to write off as yet. I'm, done projecting higher targets for the time being, however, since there are no bullish patterns remaining in any time frame that I like.
The widespread notion that a U.S. president can significantly influence the economy is mistaken. In observable fact, the broad cycles that bring us good times and bad, booms and busts, are vastly larger and more powerful than the presidency, too overwhelming to even affect, let alone command. Even the radical policies of Roosevelt's New Deal were insufficient to end a depression that had taken more than a generation to gather force. America's eventual emergence from those very hard times happened gradually during the administrations of Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy. Moreover, the post-war rebuilding process that made Europe and Japan America's best customers arguably would have happened cyclically without a Marshall Plan, and the U.S. financial system would have receded naturally from the fiscal excesses of a war that itself was an uncontrollable cyclical event. In this view, Kennedy, Clinton, Obama and Biden were simply lucky to have been elected with the economy and the stock market at cyclical lows. For in no way did they cause the upswings that shone on their terms in office, nor the felicitous shifts in the mood of consumers. The bullish cycle had to have been particularly strong to survive the misbegotten policies of Obama, the first president to revile American exceptionalism, if not America itself. Surfing the Big Wave Which brings us to Trump, the president who has come closest to affecting the economy both inside and outside the U.S. Trump inherited a fiscal blowout impelled by the covid hoax, but he has since turned it into a credit and fiscal bonfire that can only end in ashes. Trump has merely extended an especially powerful upswing that he did nothing to cause. It should have ended with the senile Biden and his autopen administration, but Trump's aggressive economic activism kicked already booming asset values
The chart shows the entire, insufferable month that Bitcoin speculators have spent jerking off, all of it in the context of a bear market that has lopped 36% from the value of the cryptocurrency so far. The closest downside target lies at p=81,163, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support associated with a 'D' target at 67,685. That last number is my worst case for the next 2-3 weeks. There is another Hidden Pivot at 73,076 mentioned here earlier that could provide support, possibly just temporary.
I seldom use a 'marquee' low to project a target, but in this case, A= 3933.20 caught Friday's spike high almost exactly. The high overshot the target by $4.30, which is not enough to guarantee that higher prices are coming. They will, though, so let's keep this chart in mind as the futures make their way higher in the days and weeks ahead. It implies minimum upside over the near term to the red line (p=4532.70, the pattern's Hidden Pivot midpoint), and to as high as D=5132.20, a target that will become an odds-on bet if bulls bulldoze past p. ______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 5:09 p.m.): Check the chat room for my latest updates, targets and tradable ideas.
Friday's punitive reversal breached p=61.910 decisively, so the yellow flag is out. A tradable implication is that a rally now to the green line (x=63.497) would trigger a 'mechanical' short. The pattern could also prove useful for bottom-fishing the decline using the lesser charts to set up 'camo' triggers at p2=60.322 and d=58.735. We should also be alert to a possible breach of d. Although I don't expect it, that would signal a potentially bigger correction than the $6.35 selloff I warned about in the trading room. ______ UPDATE (Dec 17, 10:04 a.m.): Silver has uncorked yet another powerful rally -- as usual, without having fully corrected to a minor 'd' target. In this case, d=58.735, but the futures went no lower than 61.105. The upward reversal also made short work of the 'mechanical' short suggested above after failing by 20 cents to fall to a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 61.910 where the short could have been covered, at least partially,'by the book'. The cautionary numbers noted above still obtain, meaning that a $6.35 correction is still overdue, and that a $1.58 drop would signal its onset. In any case, using a smaller, conventional pattern yields minimum upside over the near term to at least 69.250 (daily chart, A=56.850 on 12/4). A pullback first to x=63.074 off the current so-far high (66.650) would trigger a very opportune, 'mechanical' buy.
