Rick Ackerman

If the futures can break decisively above the 69.215 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance shown, that would provide solid evidence of bulls' ability to keep pushing all the way up to the 83.43 target. This chart is not drawn exactly like the one in gold (see above) because silver has underperformed relative to gold since June. However, it does focus on resistance at 'p' as the key to determining trend strength with confidence. We should eventually hope to see enough strength to deny us any easy opportunities to belatedly buy this vehicle 'mechanically on a one-level pullback. Let's watch closely to see how things unfold, since a test of 'p' in the week ahead appears likely.

The 123,50 rally target is equivalent to the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistances I've spotlighted in the gold and silver touts above.  That means buyers are likely to push above 'd' if corresponding prices in the futures contracts are exceeded. Such a demonstration would be even more conclusive and would affirm strength in physical if GDXJ goes on to exceed mid-April's 136.55 peak without a visibly significant pullback in the interim. In the meantime, a correction to p=106.67, however unlikely, can be bought with a stop-loss at 101.06.

Although we used to feature edgy market commentaries in this space, the time and effort spent crafting them is now devoted to making the Rick's Picks Trading Room an absolutely unbeatable source of timely, profitable ideas for novices and professionals. I must also confess that your editor was deeply tired of having to write regularly about a stock market energized by clueless money managers whose only trick is recklessly throwing Other People's Money at some moronic investment-theme-of-the-week. Truth to tell, having to take the stock market seriously every week wore me down. You know it and I know it: It's just a giant con-job, created to enable The Elect to make untold sums of money without having to lift a finger or get their hands dirty. You should still check here weekly, though, since I will continue to post links to my latest interviews and to offer visual enticements designed to entertain, enlighten and even warn you. Much of it will come from YouTube, since their video catalog is vast and endlessly fascinating. Submissions, including home videos, are welcome and should be sent to this address. To view this week's amusing offering, click here and find out what young Mr. Kyle (Mr. Gage?), pictured above, is up to. In the whole world, there are only a handful who can do this trick. Subscribe Free! The analytical 'touts' listed below, overhauled each Sunday and updated 24/7, will continue as always, as will their barbed emphasis on the striking similarities between Wall Street and a carnival midway. The ridiculous accuracy of our trend calls and price targets is well known and a matter of daily record, but it must be observed up-close to be believed. Sign up for a free trial with access to all site amenities by clicking here (no credit

One might think manipulating yields on the Ten-Year Note would be beyond the reach, even, of Donald Trump and those who serve him in the shadowy corridors of financial power. And yet, each time the interest rate moves in earnest toward the psychologically hazardous 5% level, it swiftly retreats as though blocked by some unseen force. With the national debt creeping up on $40 trillion and the financialized, high-leverage economy going gangbusters, there is no logical reason why long-term rates should not continue to waft higher instead of stumbling and tumbling as they continue to do. A crucial test is not far off in any case, since a breach of the 4.58% 'p' support shown in the chart that was narrowly avoided last week is still an imminent possibility. If it happens, that would signal downforce capable of pushing rates to the 4.42% target shown. It would provide a breather for a badly overheated economy in which borrowers are in desperate need of respite. _______ UPDATE (Aug 15): Rates on the Ten Year Note ended the week marginally higher after aborting a downtrend that might have offered borrowers, including the U.S. Government, a hint of relief. They were ascending toward the 47.13 Hidden Pivot resistance shown here, but it will take an energetic push past it to suggest there's power enough to get to 5%.  

Last week's buying binge pushed this ETF through the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance at 529.94 with such force that more upside to at least 595.80 is assured. The first thing to notice, however, is that a rally to that number would fall well shy of a new record high. It would also corroborate my suspicion that the bull market begun in 2009 is over, and that tech stocks are leading the implied sea change.  Regardless, a pullback to the green line (x=497.01) from last week's high at 547.90 can be bought aggressively using a 'camo' trigger. The technique is described in the six-hour Hidden Pivot Course I've made available in recorded form to all legacy subscribers and newbies who have signed up with Rick's Picks for a full year.

The short squeeze powering this bull market tacked on another week of mechanical buying, leaving little doubt that the 8263.35 target shown will be achieved. Adding to the evidence is that the futures have remained above p=7307.75, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, since touching it for the first time three months ago. Now they've blasted free of it decisively by exceeding p2=7785.00 on Friday. Your trading bias should be bullish but consider it a gift if this vehicle should pull back to 7657.75 before launching anew, since that 'hidden' support can be bottom-fished with a tight 'camo' trigger.  The one-off low is not strictly kosher, but if the uptrend exceeds D=8262.25, you can assume it's bound for 8557.50, the target associated with the marquee low at 4832.00 recorded the second week in April.

Microsoft has blown past 'p' midpoint resistance at 449.09 with such force that there can be little doubt the stock will reach the D target at 548.98.  MSFT has been an excellent bellwether for the stock market as a whole, and so we should assume the broad averages will rise in its vortex, at least until it reaches the target. The pattern also looks likely to work well for bottom-fishing swoons either to the red line or the green.  The initial stop loss for a trade executed at the higher would be at 515.79; and for the lower, 349.19.

Friday's muted rally stalled just a penny from the 78.78 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance shown in the chart. This could hardly have surprised, since none of the wack-os who trade crude could conceivably know what kind of fake rabbit Trump will pull out of his hat over the weekend. By saying the ink was nearly dry on a supposed deal with Iran to open Hormuz shipping lanes, Trump has further eroded his credibility in matters of international diplomacy almost to the vanishing point.  Saturday's headlines note an Iranian missile attack on a U.A.E. tanker, news that hardly squares with Trump's bullshit and blather last week about an imminent cease-fire. For my part, I will not even hazard a guess as to whether crude oil traders will greet the new week with a push past 78.78. If they do, it will clear the way to at least 83.33, with a corresponding, economically destructive upsurge in prices at the pump, and, eventually, in the price of virtually everything.

Did gold's bear market end with the 4016 low recorded a month ago? We'll likely have a definitive answer next week if the powerful upthrust of the last two days continues, exceeding the 4465.90 peak shown. That would mean the futures had exceeded two 'external' peaks on the weekly chart without a pullback, indicating that an exceptionally powerful impulse leg is in progress. It would presumably be strong enough to break the back of a bear market begun from a record 5782 last January. The minimum upside target thereupon would be 4819.30, still well shy of the old peak but a good start on it. Check the chat room for precise guidance if the futures should swoon, since that could set up an excellent buying opportunity down near 4200.