Sellers struggled harder in GDXJ to break down the midpoint support (p=110.36) than in either Silver or Gold futures. That makes its chart more bullish, but not much. We should therefore infer that the bear market will resume, and that GDXJ will eventually fall to D=84.17 once this bounce is over. Of course, let's also allow for the possibility that the rally is for real by stipulating that a move exceeding May 29's peak of 120.05 would put bulls solidly back in charge after spending more than three months in purgatory.
Yields on the Ten-Year Note have fallen sharply since getting within pitching wedge distance of the 4.75% target shown. It's too early to say with confidence whether this is the beginning of a significant downtrend or just a correction that will eventually give way to a new upward surge. My strong gut feeling is the latter, but we may soon get to test that prediction if TNX continues down to the green line (x=4.58%). That would trigger a 'mechanical' buy signal with subsequent potential to reach p=44.90 or higher, an event that cannot but give us a definitive picture of trend strength.
I've flagged Hidden Pivot targets as low as 51.60, which would become no worse than an even bet following two consecutive monthly closes below 85.54 (basis the NYMEX August contract). This picture shows how an interim low near 75 hardly seems far-fetched, even for someone not adept at reading charts. Although I usually tune out head-and-shoulder patterns because they are nearly everywhere one chooses to see them, this one is so pretty that it literally points the way down to a basing target near the April 17 low where the pattern began. This implies that any rally should be shorted, presumably at a midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance. That actually occurred Friday morning at an 85.22 pivot whose provenance is proprietary. The theoretical trade ended the day significantly in the black, but it would be validated if the end-of-day weakness we saw continues down to 77.60, the 'D' target of a minor pattern on the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE (June 16, 10:36 a.m.): The futures should pick up support at 75.67. They are currently trading around 76.49, slightly off a 76.03 intraday low. _______ UPDATE (June 18): Sellers have crashed the support and everything else, including the right shoulder of a six-months-large H&S pattern. Its lopsided now but still begs a rally. Nothing here argues against the direful, 51.60 target flagged above.
Yields on the U.S. Ten-Year Note signaled an imminent rise to as high as 4.80% with Friday's powerful leap. Although we don't typically use patterns as obvious as this one for trading purposes, it should prove reliable for forecasting rate changes over the next 3-4 weeks. The A-B impulse leg is a strong one, presumably with enough boost to reach the target. Moreover, a decisive overshoot would strongly imply a further move to the psychologically important 5% level. There is one more thing to note, based on the chart: once above the red line, a pullback that would be misread by many observers as a sign of easing would actually be giving 10-Year rates a running start at 5%.
It's not just the daily graph that looks heavy. On both the weekly and monthly charts, ahead of the surge in March, price lows since early 2025 have exceeded granite Hidden Pivot supports. This suggests that crude's histrionics in response to the war with Iran were all but ordained to fall short of significant new highs. But easing is another matter, since it could take months or even years for prices to settle down to whatever passes for normal in such heavily manipulated markets. In the meantime, we are fortunate that traders and investors have become bored half to death with Trump's daily pronouncements on the war and the 'situation' in the Strait of Hormuz. Barring some unforeseen catastrophe in the Middle East, you can look for quotes to fall as low as 51.60 over the intermediate- to long-term. Two consecutive monthly closes below 85.54 would shorten the odds of this.
Friday's plunge implies the selling will continue down to at least 7260.50, a midpoint Hidden Pivot tied to a worst-case target for the next 6-8 weeks of 6889.00. A stall at 7260.50 followed by a decisive breach would shorten the odds that the target will be reached. However, the chart shown depicts a somewhat less bearish scenario ending in a correction low at 7237.50. It also says that shorting a rally to the green line (x=7533.50), stop 7632.50, would enjoy excellent odds for turning a profit. Now the bad news: Judging from the way sellers crushed p=7434.88 (the red line, a midpoint Hidden Pivot), d=7237.50 is all but certain to be achieved. Since that would exceed the 7260.50 midpoint of the larger pattern, opening a path down to the worst0case 6889.00 pivot, we'll need to monitor price action very closely over the next 2-3 weeks to determine whether this is just a moderate correction or the start of a bear market.
Microsoft still has room to fall, judging by the way sellers crushed the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 423.21 on Friday. The pattern is gnarly enough to qualify as experimental. Even so, it is a well-established rule of the Hidden Pivot Method that price action at p is definitive regardless of the quality of the pattern. Since there is no ambiguity about the decisiveness of p's penetration, we can reliably conclude that d=380.10 is a very good bet to be reached. Nevertheless, if the stock were to reverse and touch the green line, the gyrations within the pattern's b-c leg make a 'mechanical' short there less appealing than we should prefer.
It is seldom a good sign when a trading vehicle triggers a 'mechanical' buy and then fails to reach the first profit-taking level. That is what has happened here, starting with the May 28 dip to the green line (x=4414.70). The subsequent bounce over the next day-and-a-half looked promising as it ascended toward the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=4666.90), where we typically exit half of a position. Unfortunately for bulls, the rally fell about $30 short. Although we should always be prepared to implement a 'dynamic' or an impulsive trailing stop when a symbol we are trading approaches a target, in this case, the gap was too large to trigger that instinct. The subsequent relapse to below x would seem to offer an even better opportunity, but not in this case. The futures look too heavy for us to test our luck, and so we'll simply wait for the seemingly inevitable breach of the pattern's 'c' low at 4162.60. It is still possible to get long anywhere between 'c' and 'x' using a 'camo' trigger, but I recommend this only to subscribers who are familiar with the tactic. It is covered in detail in the Hidden Pivot Course I've made available free to subscribers.
Silver's immediate prospects are no better than gold's, although we have a clearer benchmark for the latter that can help us gauge trend strength. The pattern shows July Silver in a descent targeted on 60.795. A precise bounce there seems unlikely, as it coincides with the clown low of 61.66 recorded on March 23. However, it will be good enough for government work for those who want to try bottom-fishing with an rABC trigger of small degree. Because p-75.450 was not brutalized on the way down, there is also a chance the futures will go no lower than p2=68.23, where they made their low on Friday. However, any upward reversal would need to hit 79.400 to be considered significant.
GDXJ has broken down after triggering a less-than-stellar 'mechanical' buy signal a few weeks ago at x=112.02 (the green line). Even so, a smaller pattern that began with the 131.36 high recorded on May 6 implies that bulls will have a chance to regain the upper hand when the descent reaches the 98.21 'D' target of the pattern. This 'hidden support' looks good enough to attempt bottom-fishing there with a stop-loss as tight as 20 cents. Using a reverse-pattern of small degree (aka 'camouflage') is the preferred way to get onboard, but however you do it, expect a tradeable reversal to occur at or very near D. _______ UPDATE (Jun 9, 11:49 a.m.): Even with gold getting hammered today, the 98.21 target worked almost perfectly for bottom-fishing. GDXJ has bounced $1.08 so far this morning from an opening-bar low of 98.28. If you got aboard, you're on your own, but be sure to take a partial profit early on.
