GDXJ has failed to get loft since triggering a mechanical buy more than a week ago. We are not supposed to feel comfortable when this type of trade is signaled, since it usually implies that the vehicle's C-D leg has been reversed precipitously. That is true here, with a dip below the green line that came close enough to the 'C' low to make us anxious. My immediate outlook for bullion is bullish, however, and GDXJ should follow gold higher if the latter continues to rally as expected. It will not be out of the woods, though, until such time as it exceeds the 45.51 'external' high recorded on June 6.
Bolstered by inflation news that sent stocks into a tizzy, TLT made dramatic progress last week toward the 95.40 target shown. The durability of this Hidden Pivot target will test bulls' mettle, as will an 'external' peak at 95.02 recorded back in late March. Together, they will offer formidabe resistance to the uptrend, and their breach would signal a continuation of the rally. The next significant structural resistance above 95.02 lies at 96.40, and thence 98.67. There are voodoo number between each of these peaks where TLT can be shorted (or T-bond equivalents bought), so stay tuned to the chat room if you're looking for real-time guidance.
The wild, gratuitous price swings in the world's biggest commodity market could make energy consumers nostalgic for the 1950s, when U.S. policymakers, CIA hacks and political operatives firmly controlled Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran and other key producers. I've kept oil on the touts list nonetheless, but only as a placeholder, since technical analysis no longer gives me a confident basis for forecasting the next big move. I don't mean to suggest that crude is untradable. Far from it, actually, since the intraday swings are so fraught with duplicity, greed and fear as to have become routinely predictable. Nudge me in the chat room if you have a trading idea you'd like vetted. But don't ask me where I think oil will be trading in a month or two, or at year's end, since there is really no way of knowing. My best guess for the very near-term is that the July contract is bound for 80.21, predicated on the June 11 low at 77.22 not being violated first.
Last week's rabid short-squeeze punctured bull-market targets I've been drum-rolling for months in Microsoft, Apple and QQQ. Moreover, the bullish look of the S&P 500 chart shown above is so clear and compelling that even the most stubborn permabears will need to make room for more upside to at least 6118, a nearly 13% rally from these levels. If the uptrend maintains its current pitch, it would hit the target just in time for Papa Bear to come bellowing from his lair at the 'correct' time of year -- i.e., when autumn leaves start to fall. The long-term charts allow three other scenarios that should not be ruled out. The first would be for the bull market to flame out here and now, with the S&Ps lying just a split hair from the pattern's 'secondary Hidden Pivot resistance' at 5461. I would rate this scenario a 40% possibility. More likely is a continuation to 6118, and then a major selloff. This is based, as are all Hidden Pivot forecasts, on price action at the red line, a 'midpoint' Hidden Pivot at 4804 that got shredded back in December. If a midpoint resistance is easily exceeded the first time it's touched, that's usually a sign that the target itself -- in this case 6118 -- will eventually be achieved. However, as you can see in the chart, the move through the red line was gradual rather than dramatic. This implies that although a further run-up to 6118 is likely, it is not a lead-pipe cinch. Second Wind, and Then... Given the pattern's clarity, it is difficult to imagine that the S&Ps will quickly push past 6118 when they get there. There will almost certainly be a tradeable pullback, and the odds are about 60% that it will be the beginning of
It's hard not to grow impatient with MSFT's tiresome slog toward the 456.88 target shown in the chart. The stock has spent most of 2024 diddling the secondary Hidden Pivot (p2) at 420, but it seems likely to get there eventually. The 430.58 target of a lesser pattern seemed to work well initially as a possible bull-market top, since the stock hasn't exceeded it by more than a couple of dollars after first hitting it in mid-March. But neither has it given up much ground since, a fact that attests to the confidence the stock's sponsors have that higher prices are coming.
Although we expect the bad guys to inflict as much pain and doubt on bulls as possible, Friday's $102 plunge seemed just a tad excessive. The low fell a hair beneath early May's 2308 low and $4 above round-number support at 2300. Many bulls would have been stopped out there, lightening the load for whatever bounce occurs this week. It may include two or three false starts, since few bulls could have expected the selling to reach the untested levels that it did in a single day. At best, the rebound will mirror the plunge that took place after August Gold slightly exceeded the record high 2471 achieved in mid-April. Any less than that will put the futures in jeopardy of falling another $100 to test a plateau formed there in March.
The reverse pattern shown is sufficiently authoritative to imply that July Silver is unlikely to dip significantly below the 28.815 Hidden Pivot target, at least not over the near-term. It took a brutal gang-bang by sellers to bring the futures down to the pattern's point 'C' low at 28.815, but the sleazeballs who manipulate silver's price were probably piqued by the increasingly shrill noise from bulls who felt that the metal's handlers were losing control. Bottom-fishing will enjoy favorable odds this week, so stay tuned to the chat room and turn on your email notifications if you want to stay apprised.
GDXJ fell hard to end the week, but the selling brought it down to the green line (x-42.20) to signal an enticing 'mechanical' buying opportunity. This will require care and tactical knowledge, since the low may be yet to come. If it occurs from beneath Friday's 41.89 bottom, the implied bounce might not quite reach p=44.52, where partial profit-taking would be necessary. Odds of an eventual move up to D=49.15 are still favorable, but it could take the futures 4-6 days to regain its footing after getting pounded for the last three weeks.
July Crude's easy push past p=74.72 implies that this corrective bounce will reach the 'D' target at 76.95. It should quell the rally, which will remain inconsequential until such times as May 29's 80.62 peak is surpassed. True to crude's perverse nature, news that OPEC will lift production quotas appears to have catalyzed the rally. Pump prices were coming down slowly following the April 12 top at 86.16,, but it will take a new top, even if just a minor one, to set them falling anew.
Friday's shakedown was the most brutal we've seen in, well, weeks, but we can infer it was merely corrective, since the high which preceded it exceeded the important 'external' peak at 92.76 recorded on April 4. The downtrend has farther to go nonetheless, and if you plan on bottom-fishing, I'd suggest waiting until TLT falls to at least 90.31. Please note, however, that a failure of that "hidden" support to hold would imply more slippage toward the important low at 88.68 that occurred on May 29.
