The futures closed effortlessly above a 5606 'hidden' resistance that was not exactly chopped liver, so we should infer they are now bound for at least 5678.50, the Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart. It is theoretically shortable, especially if you know how to craft a risk-averse, camouflage 'trigger,' but your trading bias should be bullish until the target is reached. A pullback to the red line (p=5473.00) can be bought 'mechanically', stop 5405.50, but I don't expect Mr Market to gift us with such a generous buying opportunity. _______ UPDATE (July 10, 5:30 p.m.): Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! Here's an unconventional pattern with a 5879.50 target that will ave to be treated as viable because it's all we've got at the moment. Trade with a bullish bias until it is reached, or don't trade at all. Yes, the rally could fail at p2=5726, but I wouldn't want to put ideas in your head.
Since MSFT shredded the 462.80 target featured here last week, albeit without the usual ballyhoo, the stock must be presumed bound for the 509.40 target shown in the chart. This Hidden Pivot was mentioned earlier as an alternative possibility, but I also told you to be on your guard against a possible top at 494.23, midway between p2 and D. Few chartists would be looking for a turn there, and that is why we should. Your trading bias should be bullish in the meantime, at least until p2=479.06 is achieved.
Just a little higher would trigger a 'mechanical' short on the weekly chart, but the pattern is not of the highest quality, and my gut is saying not to resist the rally. A better opportunity may lie in bottom-fishing the next correction, which could be as much as $78 or as little as $39. We'll let bulls deal with resistance from July 7's top-let at 2406.70 first, but stay tuned to the chat room and your email notifications if you trade this vehicle and want to stay attuned in real time. Please note that a worst-case relapse could bring the August futures down to as low as 2204.20 without diminishing the bullish look of the long-term charts. This is unlikely in my view, but it never hurts to be prepared for whatever pain bullion is capable of dishing out.
The 'mechanical' short GDXJ triggered last week when it popped to the green line (x=45.02) is tempting, but I'll suggest spectating instead, since Comex Gold's chart is less appealing as a bear play, even a short-lived one. The shorting signal means this vehicle is likely to fall back to at least p=42.79 before it can attempt a push past the pattern's point 'C' high at 47.25. For now, we should pay close attention to abcd corrections on the lesser charts, since they will be warning of a relapse if their respective downside 'd' targets are exceeded. ______ UPDATE (Jul 12): Buyers have blown through May 20's peak at 47.25, but price action has been less bullish in gold futures, which are still on a 'mechanical' sell signal. Time will resolve this odd discrepancy, probably in bulls' favor, but I'll wait for it to happen before hazarding a forecast you can bank on.
If T-Bonds continue their hellish slide into the abyss, this ETF proxy for long-dated Treasurys should be hitting 70 around election time. So much for Wall Street's misplaced "hopes" for a helping hand from the Federal Reserve. That won't stop speculation, every time the Open Market Committee meets, that perhaps a smidgen of easing is coming toward the end of 2024. Will they never learn? Europe's moribund economies desperately need a global monetary blowout to revive the illusion of growth, but Powell isn't playing ball. Tom Luongo thinks they will stir up a banking crisis this fall in order to scare Powell into complicity. Under the circumstances, it's hard to imagine that they won't try this. If the crisis is scary enough to cause Powell to capitulate, the Davos crowd may regret getting what they wished for,
Last week's descent to the green line (x=105.03) has triggered a 'mechanical' buy there that rates a 6.4 on a 1 to 10 scale. That means the trade looks moderately appealing and has an approximately 64% chance of rallying to at least p=106.07 before DXY could dip below C=103.99, stopping out the pattern. A return to p would not necessarily be the end of the bull cycle begun from 100.62 last December, but the dollar could still spend months in tedium with little progress in either direction.
The dog days of summer have returned with a vengeance to Florida this year, especially in my home. The air conditioner's condenser coil sprang a leak, which is hardly unusual considering that it's eight years old. What is unusual, and causing more than a little inconvenience, is that the broken part will take a month for the factory to replace. So far, I haven't been able to determine why the manufacturer, Lennox, would be having such a hard time scrounging up the part. Regardless, if you're in the market for a new cooling system, consider Trane, Rheem or some other brand before you plunk down $8k on a Lennox system that could fail in the intense summer heat of such hellholes as Miami, Phoenix, Houston or Charleston. The interior temperature of my home has continued to rise daily and is now at 91 degrees. There is no cooling it off at night, either, since the air has been soupy, with temperatures only a few degrees cooler than during the daytime. It's an odd time of year for the pace of so many things to be quickening. The stock market, for one. Far from being locked in summer doldrums, the bull rally in the lunatic stocks has lurched into high gear and is being loosely controlled by the one-decision whizzes who manage money. They are not so much pushing shares higher as allowing them to rise on urgent short-covering to speculative heights that in the past have invariably led to disaster. The talking heads say investors sniff Fed easing, finally -- and who could begrudge them a wild display of revelry to make up for their merely festive toga party earlier in the year, after they realized the central bank had no plans to loosen. Six-Three = MAGA High-Fives On the
Bulls took charge last week, a development I had not expected so soon. An all but certain test of the midpoint resistance at p=32.150 seemed assured when the futures ended the week an inch off the intraday high. The pattern looks too obvious to yield a very tightly stopped short, but price action at the midpoint Hidden Pivot cannot but give us a firm handle on trend strength. If the Auggies pop through the resistance and close above it for two consecutive weeks, they'll be well on their way to delivering D=35.40 before summer ends.
The failure a week ago to reach the 5606.50 rally target is not a sign of good health. Although the futures could get second wind and blow past this Hidden Pivot resistance in the days ahead, they should at least have reached it on the first try. It would have required only a very small additional push to get to the 'finish line', and there is no rationalizing bulls' laziness. Look for churn and a possible top from a level somewhat above the 5588.00 high recorded on June 20, or even above the 5606.50 target.
Microsoft apexed last week just 71 cents (0.1%) below a long-term target at 456.88 I'd billboarded here. It happened on Thursday, but on Friday the stock plunged to 446.41, most of it coming in the final 30 minutes of the session. This put the previous day's record high in sharper relief, increasing its potential importance. It also wiped out the entire week's gains, presumably creating a layer of urgent supply of a kind that this stock's handlers are not accustomed to coping with. Expect more backing and filling in the week ahead and a test of lows at 441.27 and 436.72 recorded on the way up during the last two weeks. _______ UPDATE (Jul 2): There was no backing and filling whatsoever. Instead, MSFT turned Friday's criminally rigged plunge into a v-shaped swoon powered by short-covering. The 456.88 target 'should' still contain bulls, albeit imprecisely, given the obviousness of the pattern. If it doesn't, don't count on 462.80, the 'D' target associated with the sucky marquee 'A' at 213.43, to do the job precisely either. An 'extension' target derived solely from the C-D leg lies at D=509.40, where A=309.45 on 9/29/23. p2=479.06 for that pattern, and don't think it would be impossibly cute for the final top to occur at 494.23, midway between p2 and D. That is a price point so nicely ensconced in our discomfort zone that no one on earth could be watching it.
