Rick Ackerman

This chart, with a 5823.00 target, looks more reliable than the one displayed here last week. It projected a 5879 top, but let's see how buyers fare at the lower target before we try to get a read on trend strength. A pullback to the green line (x=5582.75) would generate a 'mechanical' buying opportunity that you should not pass up if you trade this vehicle. Be sure to check in at the chat room before you jump on it, though, since the implied risk of doing this one by-the-book would be around $16k on four contracts.

I've used the 'extension' of a larger pattern's C-D- leg to produce a chart that will be more usable for trading purposes. It is similar to the one accompanying the E-Mini S&P tout above, and it also offers similarly enticing odds for a 'mechanical' bid placed at the green line (x=418.37). The theoretical stop-loss would be at 388.02, implying the trade should be initiated using a 'camouflage' set-up on a small-degree, intraday chart. There can be no certitude that the stock will reach D=509.40, since the move through p=448.72 was not dramatic. You can count on a ride to at least 479.06, however, no matter where  you get long.

TLT is taking its sweet old time getting airborne, and even surmounting the small distance remaining to p=96.42 cannot be assumed. The last upward stab failed to take out any external peaks, and that is an additional factor to consider. My gut feeling is that the October 2023 low at 82.42 was a major one and that it will endure for the foreseeable future. Regardless, we'll need to see a strong push past p=96.42 the first time buyers encounter it in order to infer that the D target at 105.49 is likely to be achieved.

Although GDXJ broke out last week, the chart shown in the inset, for August Comex futures, leaves me skeptical. I would remain at least somewhat so even if the rally were to surpass the 2477.0 peak recorded on May 24.  However, I wouldn't hesitate to buy a pullback to the red line (p=2340.60) mechanically. The by-the-book stop-loss would be at 2295.10, so we'd need to craft a less risky set-up to leverage the opportunity. For the moment, though, this vehicle remains on a 'mechanical'-short signal.

September Silver has stopped out no fewer than four previous lows on the daily chart since this consolidation began in late May, so we'll be extra careful about where we get on and off the bullish bandwagon. We can use the reverse pattern shown to get long the next time, but because the futures breached p=30.85 and closed below it on Friday, we may have to wait until the retracement hits d=29.69 before we hop aboard.  The turn could conceivably come from p2=30.27, so stay open to the possibility.

Bertie slightly overshot  the D target of a corrective pattern on the weekly chart, and so I've retained my focus on a somewhat bearish picture, albeit one that is merely corrective.  The implied, minimum downside target is p2=49,246, and this vehicle would trigger a 'mechanical' short if the current uptrend hits the green line (x=65,609). we'll know before then how likely this is, since a decisive upside pentration of 61,460 would be bullish. It would also shift our minimun upside target for the near term to 69,161. Both of those Hidden Pivot resistances can be found on the weekly chart, where (reverse) a=56,519 on May 3.

I've used a conservative projection even though GDXJ broke out last week, scuttling a bearish reverse pattern.  It nearly touched the 47.98 rally target on Friday, although there's room to 48.29 if you slide 'A' down a tad.  The very shallow retracement that occurred after the top was recorded early in the session is mildly bullish, but the selling would need to continue down to 47.19 to generate a bearish impulse leg on the 5-minute chart.  It would be a minor signal, but it can nonetheless serve sa a hair-trigger warning  of trouble. _______ UPDATE (Jul 16, 6:28 p.m.): Bulls have trashed enough hardy obstacles lately that it's time to shift our focus to a much bigger picture that projects as high as 72.23. Notice that GDXJ ended the week precisely at the most crucial spot on the weekly chart, p=49.02. Let's see what happens before we make an important judgment.

The dollar got hit hard on Thursday, but the weekly chart shown in the thumbnail inset puts it in perspective. DXY has been scuddling sideways since December, and there is scant evidence it will break out of the approximately five-point range in which  it has spent most of 2024. It would pick up voodoo-number support 90 cents below, at 103.18, but sellers would have to pound it through p=100.57 to create even a hint of trouble.  Regardless, D=93.78 is theoretically in play, so we should keep close track of lesser abcd patterns to determine which way the wind is blowing. _______ UPDATE (July 28): Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

August Crude remains on track for a rendezvous with the bullish target shown, 86.66. It might require a wrenching pullback first, and so I'll mention that the red line (p=79.55) could be bought 'mechanically' with a theoretical stop-loss at 77.18. That would risk nearly $10k on four contracts initially, so we'll need to come up with an appropriate 'camouflage" strategy if the opportunity materializes. _______ UPDATE (Jul 19): Crude took a pounding toward the end of the week and now looks like it could bottom lower than where I'd initially predicted. Use p2=78.77 of this pattern as a minimum downside projection for now. You can also attempt to bottom-fish there with a reverse pattern and 'camouflage' trigger. That means executing the trade using a trigger from a chart of small degree. _______ UPDATE (Jul 23, 8:56 a.m.): With today's power dive, crude is about to bottom at or near d=76.26, the Hidden Pivot target I flagged yesterday in the chatoom when I swapped this contract for the August.  Here's the updated chart.