We had great fun with Comex Silver last week, notwithstanding its reputation among traders as a Brahma bull. Although it was not exactly docile, its gratuitous feints, squiggles, plunges and war-whoops were so easily and precisely predictable that we managed to hit a half-dozen tradable highs and lows before the week ended. I stayed closer to the intraday charts than usual after eliciting pledges from a bunch of subscribers to make the extra effort worth my while. And so it was. If you're eager for more, then by all means light up the chat room with more ballyhoo. In the meantime, you can count on the little sumbitch to fist-pump to the 29.620 target shown, a Hidden Pivot resistance that would be tricky to short, since it lies a single tick above an 'external peak recorded July 24 on the way down.
Bulls finished the week comfortably above an external peak at 46.32 recorded July 31 on the way down. This left GDXJ in good shape to achieve the 48.45 Hidden Pivot target shown in the chart. The pattern is the biggest reverse abcd I have at my disposal for projecting a high, although not necessarily a top. The target should be regarded as a minimum upside projection when the new week begins. The decisive penetration of p makes this a high-probability bet.
For all of its rude, gratuitous violence, Bertie's swings are as predictable as any symbol we track. It is bound for 65,551, notwithstanding last week's annoying histrionics and evasions. I don't track it diligently enough to call every turn in the chat room, but I'm willing to put more effort into it if there is strong interest. Last week's payoff would have been a heads-up for a 'mechanical' buy at the red line, a gambit that went nicely in the black as the week ended. ______UPDATE (August 24): Just a few more inches to go before this deftly-managed hoax reaches my target with yet another gratuitous spasm. It will have rallied 30% in less than three weeks, adding a modest contribution to the global 'wealth' effect. Here's a new, slightly corrected target for subscribers seeking to manage crypto positions precisely: 65,597.76. _______ UPDATE (Aug 28, 8:37 a.m. EDT): Talk about easy pickings! Bitcoin plunged $7,000 after topping just 0.6% from my 65,597 target. Here's a new chart that implies it could fall a further $5,400 from current levels to p=54,701 before it finds solid footing. If you are new to Rick's Picks and skeptical about technical analysis, or just tired of having to rely on bumblers, shills and charlatans for bitcoin price forecasts, I'd suggest following these updates closely. I will continue to make this continuously updated tout freely accessible to everybody -- including Robin Hoodies, BlackRock thugs, crypto hypemongers and hack journalists on deadline. _______ UPDATE (Sep 5, 11:55 a.m.): Bertie is closing on my 54,701.28 target. As noted with more than a little hubris in my tout, this vehicle is "easy pickings". Let's see if the Robin Hoodies and bitcoin dupes are paying attention.
The modest pattern shown would cap this squirrelly bounce somewhat below new record highs, although I don't mean to suggest that new highs are necessarily unlikely, let alone impossible. However, my gut feeling is that the bull market is over, and even a thrust to marginal new highs would not change my mind. The burden of proof is on bulls as far as I'm concerned, and we should guard against getting sucked in by a heavily engineered, last-gasp rally. The reverse pattern in the thumbnail chart is sufficiently gnarly to work for our purposes, whatever they be. It has already generated a profitable 'mechanical' buy at the red line, as well as a one-level short from it. Tightly stopped shorts at p2=5460.13 and d=5573.50 can be attempted, especially if you are familiar with the reverse-pattern 'camo' triggers that we use to significantly limit entry risk. ______ UPDATE (Aug 16, 2:58 a.m.): The futures pulled back a very modest 14 points from 5571.75, but that was all the opportunity we got to cover any shorts before a relentless squeeze took hold in after-hours trading. Just a little higher and the September contract should be presumed headed to the 5749.25 target, on the daily chart, of A=5092.00 on 5/2.
The weekly chart shows our #1 bellwether stock to be reliably headed down to at least 332.11, the 'd' target of a perfectly clear reverse pattern. That would represent a 29% fall from the record 468 achieved in mid-July and 18% below Friday's close. In the meantime, because last week's low occurred almost exactly midway between p and p2, a rally to the green line (x=434.29) would trigger a succulent 'mechanical' short. Keep in mind that that is not a rally target, only a reference point we use to do this type of trade. Another place where you could attempt to get short is at 417.36, the midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance, on the hourly chart, of a=404.51 (5/31). The pivot should be used as a minimum correction target for the time being. _______ UPDATE (Aug 16, 3:30 a.m.): The uptrend has easily and decisively exceeded p=417.36 with a short-squeeze waft that has put the stock on-track for a shot at D=449.13 over the near term.
This hoax just won't stay down, mainly because there is never much supply, and because it has such strong, shameless institutional support from players with no skin in the game. They all know better, but touting the cryptos helps perk up their humdrum lives while giving them something to talk about with kids in the neighborhood who have opted for the excitement of the Robin Hoodie life rather than mowing lawns. Look for Bertie to achieve the 65,511 target shown, then to stall there for long enough for nimble players to scalp a short. A pullback to the red line (p=57,457.35) can be bought mechanically, stop 54,759.38. _______ UPDATE (Aug 16, 3:30 a.m.): If you bought at the red line (p=57,457) as recommended, you have a $1,000 profit at the moment. Manage it as you please, using the 65,551 target flagged above as a lodestar.
I keep crude on the front page only because it is the largest commodity market in the world. That said, the world's largest commodity market has been doing little but jacking off for more than a year, demonstrating that the main purpose of global markets is...to jack off. What a joke! This would be an embarrassment to all humanity, but for the fact that nothing could embarrass a civilization in which a hit single with the title 'Wet-Assed Pussy' could briefly become the most listened-to pop 'song' in the world of so-called music. The woman responsible for it, Cardi B, probably regards the poobahs at Disney, the SEC and on Capitol Hill as peers -- and not without good reason, since they are all American success stories of one sort or another. The foregoing aside, crude prices cannot be suppressed indefinitely in a geopolitical world that lives, from one day to the next, under a deep purple storm cloud. The traders who have been doing the jacking off in both directions must be close to spent by now, so don't be surprised if the intrepid dirtballs who control this monster spring a nasty trap on scalpers who can't wait to short yet another rinse-and-repeat peak in the low $80s.
Buyers ripped through the midpoint Hidden Pivot (p=96.42) of the pattern shown with such force on Friday that there can be zero doubt where they are taking this vehicle, an ETF proxy for the long bond. The 105.49 target looks all but certain to be achieved, presumably within the next 5-7 weeks. A move of such magnitude would equate to a fall in long-term rates to 3.64% [restated from 3.67% to correct Tradestation glitch) from a current 4.11%. This will not be caused by anything the Fed does, but by the recession the banksters have kept at bay with massive quantities of funny money even when they supposedly were tightening. Another potential source of lift could come from a stampede into safety precipitated by the sight of a mushroom cloud billowing over some G-d-forsaken city or nation. _______ UPDATE (Aug 31): The spearing of 'p' earlier this month still makes TLT a good bet to reach the 105.49 rally target -- eventually. For now, though, buyers will need to screw up their courage as T-bonds weather gale-force headwinds caused by the prodigious borrowing needs of the U.S. Treasury. A nearly 5% drop to the green line (x=87.34) looks increasingly likely before deep recession intercedes with what no one will call 'relief'. Here's the chart.
Friday's plunge through the red line (p=103.60) means the Dollar Index will fall to at least 102.40 before it can attempt to find traction. That would put it even with an important low recorded last March, but any further slippage, especially if sharp, would be signaling a plunge toward the 100.62 low notched in the final days of 2023. Here's a longer-term chart, however, that shows a path all the way down to 93.78. That nearly unthinkable target is precisely confirmed by the bounce off p=100.57, and its attainment would become an odds-on bet if DXY closes for two consecutive weeks below p. _______ UPDATE (Aug 9, 2:02 p.m.): The dollar has bounced modestly from 102.16, just 24 cents below the minimum downside target given above. When the rally fails as I expect it to, look for more weakness into the range 99.58-100.57, between two key lows on the daily chart that occurred, respectively, on July 19 and December 28. ______ UPDATE (Aug 16): As anticipated above, the dollar has turned lower yet again, presumably bound for the 99.58-100.57 range noted. If you trade off this vehicle, please note that DXY will have a chance to bounce from exactly 101.26, a Hidden Pivot derived from the 240-minute chart, where A= 104.45 on 8/1.
The selloff begun on July 16 tripped a second 'mechanical' buy signal, this time on the weekly chart. The implication is that the September contract will rally to at least p=75564.6without first dipping beneath the pattern's 'C' low at 5267.75. However, there are no guarantees that any rebound will reach the D target at 5881.60, If this holds true, the bull market begun in 2009 would be over. That's my gut feeling, but we'll wait to see whether DaBoyz can turn things around with the benefit of a green-line (x) 'buy' trigger that they don't even know exists. In the meantime, you can use a presumably gratuitous feint below 'C' to get long, but the theoretical trigger interval of 43-points would require risk-reduction tactics based on a 'camouflage' set-up. _______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 10:52 a.m. EDT): The breach of so clear and compelling a target as d=5168.75 offers persuasive evidence that the current, manic bounce is just a bear rally and a distributive fraud. Plan accordingly, and don't get sucked by whatever Wall Street's cud-chewing shills spew in the days and weeks ahead.
