We began last week with an ambitious bull-market target at 6102, but heavy selling on Thursday nearly negated the bullish pattern from which that Hidden Pivot was derived. It is still theoretical viable, but I doubt it will survive. That would imply a trend failure at a midpoint of daily-chart degree [p=5913), a usually reliable indicator of an important trend change. Now, if minor 'D' corrective targets start giving way easily, we would have reason to infer the long-term bull cycle begun in March 2020 is over. I will be tracking this closely, so keep your email 'Notifications' switched on and stay close to the chat room if you want to stay apprised in real time.
The large gap opened by last Thursday's selloff left the stock well below ponderous supply. Mere bullish buying cannot possibly penetrate it, only a short squeeze powered by a headline that at the moment lies beyond imagining. The deficit will have to be recouped relatively quickly -- within the next 7-10 days, say -- or it will grow even more challenging psychologically. DaBoyz are certain to attempt a last-ditch distribution, which may require taking the stock even lower first to dry up selling. This is a dangerous game, even for the sleazy predators who make their living manipulating this stock, and we'll probably see them attempt the obligatory short squeeze in the days following the election. Trump looks like a lock-up to win, but if his victory gets tied up in the courts, or worse, the squeeze won't work. From a technical standpoint, the stock is on a 'mechanical' buy signal -- the second in two months -- but I am not recommending that you trade it.
Several subscribers identified the 88.41 downside target of the reverse pattern shown. It sits in a messy voodoo zone, and that's why it will be usable despite its apparent popularity. Bottom-fishing should be done with a reverse-pattern trigger on the weekly chart, where a= 96.47 (August 30). This trade will make you money regardless of whether TLT bottoms at 88.41. It is an 'Eff you, Mr Market' trade. It is recommended to Pivoteers who are familiar with 'camouflage' set-ups. More immediately, the downside should be exploited as well, since the decisive penetration of p=95.03 implies TLT is very likely to achieve d=88.41.
The futures have sold off $60 so far after coming within a hair of a 2803.40 target I'd been drum-rolling since September. The yellow flag is out, but there is still a higher target outstanding at 2940.10 that should be held in mind, even if the correction continues for another $250. However unlikely, that would bring the December contract down to the green line, triggering a 'mechanical' buy that would provide juicy odds for bottom-fishing. More immediately, the first chance this vehicle will have to regain traction is at 2711.30, my minimum downside objective for the near term (daily chart, a= 2708.70 on 9-26). If that Hidden Pivot support fails, look for the retracement to come into the thicket of October's consolidation zone, between 2640 and 2690.
Last week's wrenching slippage brought GDXJ down to within 18 cents of the 50.55 'd' target of a reverse pattern on the daily chart that was displayed here previously. I've graduated to a bigger bearish pattern that targets 46.71, but the breach on Thursday of that pattern's 51.15 midpoint Hidden Pivot implies the correction will come down to at least p2=48.93. It could fall a further 2.22 to d=46.71, as noted above, if the 'secondary' support (i.e. 48.93) gives way easily. You can bottom-fish either Hidden Pivot with as tight a trigger interval as you can identify on charts of 5-minute degree or less.
The futures bottomed 33 cents above the 66.39 'd' target of a reverse pattern I flagged here last week, hinting that the riffraff was in there bottom-fishing. No matter, since we can always figure out ways to keep a couple of steps ahead of the clowns. For starters, I've moved the point 'a' high to the left, using a 'locked' high to form a reverse pattern that few if anyone will see. Bottom-fish the 65.27 target with as tight a stop-loss as you can craft if the opportunity arises. More immediately, the rally would trigger a 'mechanical' short if it touches the red line (p=71.49, although I am recommending the trade only to ace Pivoteers who know how to calculate the appropriate stop-loss.
The chart shows four Hidden Pivot levels that could yield cautious entry set-ups for traders who shun risk and especially fear high-volatility monsters like this one. We typically trade such levels using 'reverse-pattern' triggers that are discernible on the lesser intraday charts. This tactic is proprietary, but you can seek guidance in the Rick's Picks trading room, a hangout for some of the best day traders you will find online. Please note that if one of the levels shown is decisively (i.e., by more than 0.5%) penetrated on first contact, the next will automatically become the minimum downside target. The lowermost of the targets shown is 61,181, a Hidden Pivot that you should treat as a back-up-the-truck number likely to produce a precise, and therefore easily tradable, low.
[The author of this week's commentary is an old friend who worked his way up from exchange-floor clerk to commercial real estate mogul over the time I've known him. He has demonstrated remarkable timing, courage and patience as an investor, buying commercial real estate at the bottom of the 2007-08 crash and holding it until two years ago, when an even bigger crash that shows no sign of abating began. He also started accumulating a large position in physical silver as it fell from around $30 in early 2021 to $17 a year-and-a-half later. He recently cashed out his entire position at upwards of $33 an ounce, roughly doubling his stake. Now he is striking out in a radical new direction, deploying a large portion of his sizable gains in the most unpopular investment of the day, Treasury paper. Although no investor is infallible, my friend has never had a misstep with a series of all-in bets. Coincidentally, or perhaps not, Comex Gold has fallen nearly $60 after coming within $1.60 of a 2803.40 target I started drum-rolling in September, when prices were $300 lower. Is the top in? It's too early to tell, but even if higher prices are coming, anyone who has held bullion during its steep run-up since last October could not go far wrong by taking a partial profit at these levels. RA ] Each time a massive wealth transfer occurs, it is caused not by an upward explosion in asset prices, but by crushing deflation such as we experienced in 2007-8. It's about to happen again, and not with a puny, garden-variety bear-market or recession, but with the epic crash that we have all known was coming sooner or later. The list of possible catalysts boggles the imagination, to wit: a politically wrenching transition
I've led the front page this week with an election week scenario that has the E-Mini S&Ps topping at 6102 on or around Election Day. This Hidden Pivot resistance comes from a composite monthly chart, so don't expect resistance precisely at that number. However, the overall look of the monthly chart is sufficiently compelling to warrant a yellow flag when the futures get there. The target lies 4% above Friday's close, 0r 256 points. Coincidentally, a lesser pattern from the daily chart yields an almost a precisely matching Hidden Pivot target at 6102.75. That means double-stopping power, so don't miss the opportunity to get short there if you trade this vehicle. Don't hesitate to nudge me in the chat room for timely guidance.
You can always tell when portfolio managers are hard at play, immersed in an epic circle jerk that has become more tediously familiar with each passing week. And so it went on Friday, as money migrated for no discernible reason from certain, temporarily disfavored stocks to flavor-of-the-day hotties. It seemed almost as though the chimpanzees who purport to manage everyone's money were on a conference call that morning, scripting a narrative simple enough for Jim Cramer to shill to the legions of widows and pensioners addicted to his show. The Dow was down more than 300 points at its lows, even as the lunatic-sector stocks -- you know them as the idiotically misnamed 'Magnificent Seven' -- winked at the thrashing their poor cousins were getting on less sexy exchanges. The Naz was borne aloft as always by light volume and timid resistance. Bears evidently were too gutless to resist the uptrend, which in recent weeks has become increasingly confident of a Trump victory. 4% Above Sits Trouble Even so, there is a palpable feeling that the stock market has been nutso for so long that it's overdue for a sea change. That could mean irrational exuberance will peak on or around election day. But Mr Market could also surprise with a rally that turns even steeper than the one that has prop-washed the flesh from sane observers and skeptics. So which? The chart above makes a compelling case for something in-between. The 6102 S&P target lies 256 points, or 4.4%, above Friday's close. It would not be as large a gain in points as occurred in August or September. However, if the top were to coincide with the November 5 election, the entire gain would have occurred in just seven trading days. That looks like a good bet, but I
