Actionable Trade-Alert from Rick in the Trading Room (Please check all related discussion in the room before you do any trades.)An advanced-chat room denizen thinks shorting AirBnB (ABNB, currently $132), is a good way to leverage the coming collapse in residential real estate. I agree and am suggesting out-of-the-money put butterflys that expire in mid-November or later: "I agree with your assessment of ABNB, John: It is dead meat. I suggest out-of-the-money put butterflies to play the stock's coming collapse: the 17 Nov 95/100/105 put 'fly is currently quoted at 0.06/0.21. You can move the strikes up or down by $10 to avoid bumping heads with other subscribers, and you can also try to leg it on -- for free -- as two vertical spreads. If you can get it on for a dime (0.10) or better, you'll have a good shot at making 25-35 times your money. (The spread can go to $5 in theory, but in practice no one will be able to sell it for more than around $4.)" The puts are not very liquid, so you should shop other strikes and expiration dates to avoid spooking the algorithms that will be selling you this spread. Another way to play it would be to start with a calendar spread, 'anchoring' your position with, say the purchase of 17th Nov 100 puts for 0.75, and shorting 13th Oct 100 puts for 0.10. When the latter fall to 0.02 or less, you would cover them and short 20th Oct 100 puts. Rolling the spread several times this way, week after week, can bring your cost basis down to zero or even a credit. As the stock price drops, you'll be collecting bigger and bigger premiums for the short-side puts. The spread has the potential to trade for as much as around
Rick Ackerman
A timely note concerning the CCL puts
– Posted in: NotificationsActionable Trade-Alert from Rick in the Trading Room (Please check all related discussion in the room before you do any trades.)14:39 RickCCL: The 13.50 puts expiring next Friday have nearly tripled today from their acquisition price. However, I have a minor target at 0.44 that we should make use of, taking advantage of today's reversal. Accordingly, I'll advise offering half of any 13.50 puts bot last week for 0.16 @ 0.44, day order.14:39 ParkerRick, +400 on CCL. Pays subscription. Thank you! Still trying o learn here.14:43 RickThanks for the report. Parker. Glad to hear you made out so well. The trade was explicitly geared toward the many subscribers who took a free two-week subscription after my interview with Greg Hunter. It was designed to pay your subscription cost for a year when the trial period expired.14:46 RickI don't keep score, since P&L track records promoted by others in my business are a crock of shit. That said, I cannot recall the last option traded recommended here that lost money -- or that was just marginally profitable..14:49 RickThe trade in GDXJ, meanwhile, is hanging by a thread. It needs some Tinkerbell fairy dust but instead seems to be gagging on Monsanto Roundup. Virus-free.www.avg.com
Possible T-Bond opportunity just posted in the chat room (TLT can be substituted if you don’t trade futures)
– Posted in: NotificationsActionable Trade-Alert from Rick in the Trading Room (Please check all related discussion in the room before you do any trades.)13:58 RickSpartacus (et al.): A 14-tick trigger interval can be used to get long in Dec T-Bonds with a reverse 9rABC) pattern. That is based on a so-far low at 116^04 and a partial exit at 117^00. Of course, a print at 116^18 (with the 116^04 low still in place) would also imply that a for-real bounce is under way. Virus-free.www.avg.com
Just posted in the trading room: a timely play in GDXJ. This is a low-hanging-fruit opportunity designed to enable newbies to pay for their first year’s subscription
– Posted in: NotificationsActionable Trade-Alert from Rick in the Trading Room (Please check all related discussion in the room before you do any trades.)12:27 RickIf you missed boarding GDXJ at the 9/7 low, the ETF will become an opportune 'mechanical' buy when it gets down to x=34.60. I'd suggest buying stock (stop 33.86) or naked-shorting puts, but buy calls only if using a small-pattern (i.e., camouflage) trigger that can get you in near the exact low, time-wise. Here's the chart:12:27 Rickhttps://tinyurl.com/2vb9m3dt12:31 RickNot texting while driving, btw. just waiting for a flight at Charleston airport. Nicely Deadsville today. Disclaimer: Past performance should not be construed as an indicator of future success.Virus-free.www.avg.com
Just posted: possible opportunities in Dec Gold
– Posted in: NotificationsActionable Trade-Alert from Rick in the Trading Room (Please check all related discussion in the room before you do any trades.)08:32 RickLinked below is a pattern in Dec Gold that I like very much. The obliteration of p=1938.30 on first contact means more slippage to at least 1922.00 is all but certain. Two obvious rABCs also visible in this chart suggest a bounce from 1922.00 has the potential to hit 1960, or even in71. Here's the chart:08:32 Rickhttps://bit.ly/485AikS The link: https://bit.ly/485AikSVirus-free.www.avg.com
Subscriber alert: shorting Carnival cruise lines
– Posted in: NotificationsActionable Trade-Alert from Rick in the Trading Room (Please check all related discussion in the room before you do any trades.)We are playing with CCL puts, based on first-hand knowledge of a covid disaster that marred a very recent Alaska cruise aboard a CCL Princess liner. Here's the latest, but check the Trading Room for further discussion: Let's try to add four 29 Sep 13.50 CCL puts for 0.16, day order; and four more for 0.12, day order. If either or both orders fill, we will seek to turn our position into a bearish vertical put spread (simple instructions to follow). RA Virus-free.www.avg.com
Just posted in the Trading Room: a possible Covid opportunity derived from the suffering and paranoia of others
– Posted in: NotificationsActionable Trade-Alert from Rick in the Trading Room (Please check all related discussion in the room before you do any trades.) 12:10 RickCCL: Let's get our feet wet with an 0.08 bid for four 29 Sep 12.50 puts. I am using a conventional Hidden Pivot pattern to locate the bid. If it gives way by day's end and the option closes below 0.08, odds will favor a further fall to zero (or at least to 0.05, a 'hidden' support). That's the caveat, but we will keep the puts anyway, since you can never predict whether the Carnival cruise 'story' will take flight over the weekend. I sure as heck wouldn't be selling puts on CCL, even after its 25% fall since late June. Do NOT, even if you were dazzled by the 40-bagger just achieved in AAPL, jump on these puts in a big way. The trade is simply to put CCL in our crosshairs -- but also to create profits so that the 60 boss jocks who have just now come here from USAWatchdog will not have to pay for a year's subscription with, heaven forbid, hard-earned money. We can look for potentially better set-ups next week, but I like this opportunity to begin with. Virus-free.www.avg.com
Potentially tradeable guidance for E-Mini S&P (ES)
– Posted in: NotificationsActionable Trade-Alert from Rick in the Trading Room (Please check all related discussion in the room before you do any trades.)Thursday, August 31, 2023 08:0008:26 BillESU23 has slightly exceeded the important x=4535.31 level. [ {{ Try not to think of 'x' as an important level. It is neither a Hidden Pivot, nor a support nor a resistance, just a place where we set up some of our trades. RA }}} ]08:34 RickHere is the pattern that will be controlling ES today. It is sufficiently gnarly to work no matter what your purpose:08:34 Rickhttps://bit.ly/3PhA2bc08:42 BillThanks for posting this pattern, Rick. [ { Ur welcome, Bill. Enjoy! RA }]09:0009:07 RickIf you use p=4548.13 to get short, I'd recommend a trigger interval of 4.0 points. The current micro-selloff could change that, so check with me before you act. Virus-free.www.avg.com
Last call!
– Posted in: NotificationsActionable Trade-Alert from Rick in the Trading Room (Please check all related discussion in the room before you do any trades.)Posted moments ago in the chat room: The Labor Day deadline is approaching for longtime subscribers invited to take the 'Advanced Tactics' course. It will be the last such invitation sent out to this group this year, and possibly next. I will continue to limit access to subscribers who have been with me for at least two years and who have taken either the Hidden Pivot Webinar or the course on 'mechanical' set-ups. The $899 price will never be repeated.Virus-free.www.avg.com
Interesting Notes on Gold and Other Subjects from Bob Hoye
– Posted in: NotificationsA Notice from Rick in the Trading Room As promised in the chat room, here are some links to analysis from Bob Hoye that I think you will find interesting and insightful. The first is a 'Charts and Markets' update he sent out a couple of days ago that is very bullish on gold and gold stocks. Click here to bring it up in your browser. The second is a fellow deflationist's take on a real estate market that seems headed toward certain collapse. If you click a link embedded in the article, you'll find a special bonus -- a fascinating piece written for Barron's by Jim Grant that tracked the history of a blue chip property in Manhattan as it fell on increasingly hard times during the Great Depression. I tried to locate the article years ago, but neither Jim nor his secretary was able to find it. When Bob began to describe it in a conversation I had with him yesterday, I knew instantly what he was talking about. I am grateful to him for coming up with this gem, and for allowing me to share his work with Rick's Picks subscribers.
