Gold's squirrelly histrionics have become too tiresome to deserve our close attention, but we can still use the excellent, gnarly pattern shown to exploit any price action that plays to our game. For starters, a fall to p2=1700.80 could be bought 'mechanically', provided you know how to set-up a 'camouflage' trigger that would reduce the nearly $30k of entry risk on four contracts by perhaps 95%. Nudge me in the chat room at the appropriate time if you care and I will show you how. (Here's the equivalent pattern for Feb Gold, where p2=1702.60 and D=1629.00.) Notice that a 'mechanical' short deep in the 'discomfort zone' a couple of weeks ago would have paid off at the same odds as the buy suggested above. ______ UPDATE (Nov 30, 6:18 p.m.): The February contract fell to the red line, generating a $30,000 payoff for anyone who shorted the most recent 'mechanical' signal -- at 1849.40 on 11/10. The 1629.00 target remains valid, but let's see if bears can extend their winning streak with a further fall to p2=1702.60 first. Gold may suck much of the time, but that doesn't make it any easier for bearish bettors to profit.
I've used a reverse pattern to project lower prices because it is more conservative than conventional patterns that would have yielded even lower targets. That means you can attempt bottom-fishing at D=21.95, my worst-case objective for the near term; or short x=24.60 'mechanically' if you know how to set it up without risking your shirt. An easy breach of D would imply more slippage top at least 21.95 or even 20.77. They are, respectively, the p2 and D pivots of the 'conventional pattern using A= 26.13 from 8/4. Here's the same picture transposed to March Silver. It shows 'D' at 22.01.
The dollar came down hard on Friday when the egregiously overrated 'Omicron' variant of Covid-19 seemed to provide hope to dollar bears that the U.S economy would soon reverse course and slip into depression. They might get their wish about the depression, since the price of just about everything has risen to levels where most middle class Americans are starting to throttle back on purchases, especially of cars, houses and appliances that are essential to fueling debt-based 'prosperity'. We would still caution against betting on the buck's demise, since it speared the 96.09 midpoint Hidden Pivot resistance of the pattern shown before getting hit by misguided sellers. Why is the dollar strong everywhere but in the U.S.? Answer: Because stimulus has targeted Joe Sixpack, not just financial assets and real estate.
Friday felt like a Pearl Harbor attack on Wall Street. Since when did a Thanksgiving Friday fill investors with dread and fear? The day was supposed to have passed quietly, with second-string prop desks locked on a glide path into what remained of the four-day holiday. Instead, the Dow plunged by 900 points, closing near the low of the day after a couple of failed rally attempts while the 'value'-weighted Russell index fell by nearly 4%. One might have inferred the markets were finally rebelling against all of the arrant falsehoods that have pumped them full of unnatural vigor, especially over the last year-and-a-half as the global economy has tottered. Everything was topsy-turvy as the week ended: T-bonds were screaming, the FAANGs so beloved of portfolio managers were getting pulped, and bitcoin, the speculative Porfirio Rubirosa of this era, was immersed in molten hell. A more than $3,000 decline threatened to become the beginning of a crypto bust. Hold the Bubbly! A few of my colleagues had predicted a major top about where it occurred. Peter Eliades got closest with a magic number for the E-Mini S&Ps that caught the high within a point. My own projection missed by 20 points, or less than half a percentage point -- close enough for an honorable mention. That was until I had a closer look at AAPL's chart. The stock got hit hard, down almost 3%, but there is no escaping the fact that if it were to fall a further 5%, to 146, it would become an even better 'buy', according to the rules of my Hidden Pivot Trading System. Since AAPL more than any other stocks reflects the zeitgeist of portfolio managers, not to mention their greed, hubris and stupidity, we shouldn't be too hasty in assuming that Friday's carnage
The 4905.75 target shown has a good chance of ending the bull market. Even if it doesn't, it is all but certain to produce a very substantial correction that we can trade from the short side. I cannot guarantee this Hidden Pivot will work with the micro-precision you've come to expect from Rick's Picks, since the A, B and C coordinates are a blend of different contract months. But 4905 will be close enough for our purposes, including: 1) staying with the trend until its last gasp; 2) reversing our positions at that time; and, 3) preparing for the onset of the deep economic depression the coming bear market will bring. In the meantime, and most immediately, the 4760 target given here previously remains my minimum upside target for the near term. It is as promising a place to get short as the one at 4724.25 given here last week. That Hidden Pivot caught the top of a 40-point drop within three ticks and could have been worth as much as $2,000 per contract to any subscriber who traded it. ______ UPDATE (Nov 22, 9:44 p.m. EST): Yeah, I'm wondering myself whether today's bull-trap stab up to 4740 was close enough to my number to mark an important top. My gut feeling is that it wasn't, but I'll be paying closer attention in any event to small things that develop in the next few days.
Bertie turned and ran $4,300 from within $8 of the $55,652 target where I'd suggested tightly stopped bottom-fishing on Friday, turning this monster into a relatively easy trade. That should end the correction, the nastiest we've seen since early September but by no means unusual. If the bounce continues, we can use this pattern to trade the little sonofabitch 'mechanically'. My long-term rally target remains 89,780, a Hidden Pivot resistance with the potential to cap bitcoin's amazing run. ______ UPDATE (Nov 23, 5:34 p.m. ET): Bertie is doing its vicious best to make sure as few bulls as possible are onboard for the next big rally. Even so, p2=55,339 of this pattern looks likely to remain the lower limit of fright-mask feints and fakeouts.
December Gold remains on track for a move to at least 1916.90, the 'reverse' D rally target shown in the inset. Two weeks of tedium have at lest partially consolidated the very robust impulse leg begun on November 3 from 1758. However, we shouldn't rule out the possibility of a $30-$50 swoon to alleviate gold's constipation before it heads up to 1916.90. The implied $2000 entry risk of bullishly trading the resulting pattern means we'll need to set it up on charts of lesser degree. You should stay tuned to the chat room, but also keep your email 'Notifications' switched on if you want to keep closely apprised. ______ UPDATE (Nov 22, 9:52 p.m.): The December contract fell almost $50, validating my warning, but technically it won't become a swoon until we've see a strong bounce that recoups the loss. In the meantime, a further fall to p=1797.40 would trip a 'mechanical' buy, and so would a hit at x=1737.70. Nudge me in the chat room if you would like me to vet your 'camouflage' entry set-up. _______ UPDATE (Nov 23, 5:48 p.m.): We're in no hurry to get long nor to play hero as gold's predatory masters simulate scary weakness. I still think we'll have our chance down around 1737.70.
The rally begun on September 29 from 21.41 is bound for a minimum 26.48, a Hidden Pivot resistance that is shown in the inset. I've used a 'reverse' pattern to calculate the target, and it is comely enough to be considered reliable for all purposes, including nailing a short-able top and keeping us confidently bullish in the meantime. Most immediately, we could use a pullback to p=23.94 to get long 'mechanically', stop 23.09. If this opportunity should arise and you are interested, nudge me in the chat room and I may be able to provide a set-up that would drastically reduce the implied entry risk of around $4000 per contract. _____ UPDATE (Nov 23, 6:04 p.m. ET): The trade triggered off our 'workhorse pattern', but because no one mentioned it I'll track this one on paper. The first partial profit should be taken at p2=25.10, o-c-o with a stop-loss on the entire position at 23.09.
Treasury Bonds are more than holding their own, considering the Fed is in the throes of the biggest monetary blowout in U.S. history. Last week's rally came from just a few ticks below a 'mechanical' bid I'd advised near the green line (x=159^30). The 'mechanical' trigger implies that the futures are bound for a minimum p=162^26, but we'll wait and see how buyers handle this 'hidden' resistance before we assume significantly higher prices are likely. This week's commentary notes that a ratcheting down of interest rates to 1.70 or even 1.54 could occur if T-Bond futures are in fact just warming up. _____ UPDATE (Nov 22, 10:04 p.m.): There's no getting around the worrisome fact that it would take just a small decline from here to generate a nasty impulse leg on the daily chart. A print at 159^14 would do it, exceeding one 'internal' and two 'external' lows. Regardless, a very tight 'reverse ABC' pattern can be used to try bottom-fishing before, or just after, the lows have been breached. _______ UPDATE (Nov 23, 6:15 p.m.): The trade showed a small profit of $240-$450 before it was stopped out with the creation of a menacing impulse leg on the daily chart. A further drop into the no man's land above the October low at 157^03 is coming next.
AAPL's steep run-up last week slightly exceeded the 160.48 target we'd been using since the stock was trading around 146. The 54-cent overshoot amounted to just three-tenths of a percentage point, but that's sufficient in this case to put p2=163.87 in play as a minimum upside target. Just to be sure, we'll stipulate that the stock close for a second consecutive day above 160.48. An easy penetration of p2 would imply still more upside to D=172.40. Mechanical levels will be in play for trade set-ups if the stock moves higher, although odds of a pullback sufficient to trigger a trade are not favorable. That implies we may need to zoom down to the 5- or 15-minute chart to get it done. _______ UPDATE (Nov 22, 10:25 a.m.): With this morning's powerful, wholly fabricated short-squeeze, AAPL has effortlessly and with no actual work added yet more hundreds of billions of dollars to the global store of inflation-based 'wealth'. The stock is headed to 172.40 now, a Hidden Pivot with the potential to challenge a bull market that has become a runaway hoax. _______ UPDATE (Nov 22, 10:07 p.m.): A subscribers asked in the chat room whether today's vicious, 100% rigged reversal has negated the 172.40 target. My response: Only a dip beneath C=138.27 would invalidate the target. Judging from the way the uptrend spiked through both p and p2, I am not even slightly spooked by today's bull trap. The stock will have to build a new base, but I am surely not writing off the 172.40 target. This matters, because, as AAPL goes, so goes the stock market and planet earth, economically speaking.
