AAPL still looks like a no-brainer -- not only to achieve the 187.93 bull market target shown, but to provide a tradeable pullback from it that we can short profitably. It is comforting to have such a predictable bellwether. It is better than that, actually, since the stock provides an unobstructed view into the chimp brains of those who get paid to throw huge quantities of Other People's money at a relative handful of ridiculously overvalued stocks. Get AAPL right, as I have always said, and you get stock the market right. ______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 8:43 p.m.)' The stock has turned down sharply after getting within 2.6% of the 187.93 target. This is interesting, since the E- Mini Dow came even closer to a 36,890 target I was eager to short before it, too, took a steep dive. The yellow flag is out.
The futures have rolled down from a logical spot, a secondary Hidden Pivot at 4802.25 tied to our bullish lodestar at 4907.25. I've added a smaller 'reverse' pattern with a target at 4663.00 so that we can gauge the strength of correction and exploit it 'mechanically' for trading purposes. It tripped a short at 4756.50 on Friday, but I did not advise taking the trade ahead of the long weekend. Sliding 'a' up to 4743.25 (12/16) produces a correction target as low as 4576.75, but we'll be better able to judge its validity and usefulness once we've seen how sellers handle the respective midpoint supports at 4731.25 and 4688.25. ______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 9:19): Although sellers were spent on the opening bar, DaBoyz failed to take advantage. Even so, it is bullish that the downward spike that began the session couldn't even reach the midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 4731.25. _______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 8:46 p.m.): Very suspicious. The futures dove today after stopping out a hypothetical short last week from p2=4802.25 by a hair. 'Matt's Curse' is in effect, so we shouldn't be surprised if the downtrend accelerates into week's end. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 7:57 p.m.): 'Matt's Curse' implies that very sharp reversals become more likely when they begin precisely at the p2 secondary pivot. In this case, the trend did in fact fail just a hair from p2=4803.75 of the bullish ABCD pattern shown, and we should therefore be prepared to see sellers take out the pattern's point 'C' low at 4485.75. I have drawn in a secondary 'reverse' pattern for trading purposes -- in this case, a potential 'mechanical' short on a rally touching x=4752.50,;or a bottom-fishing attempt at d=4585.25.
I still expect the futures to fall to the 'D' target at 158^14 before the correction ends. That's because the downtrend's first contact with p=160^01 crushed the support. The implication is that a rally to x=160^26 would trigger a 'mechanical' short with the potential to achieve 'D'. I am not advising the trade, however, unless you know how to initiate it with a 'camouflage' set-up that would reduce the theoretical entry risk per contract to no more than about six ticks. Alternatively, if the bounce stops out C=161^19 of the corrective pattern, that would be bullish for T-bonds. _______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 9:55 p.m. EST): We bought into what turned out to be an avalanche, suffering a loss of about $220 per contract before stopping out. The futures went significantly lower thereafter -- no surprise, given the way they'd turned our robust-looking Hidden Pivot support into chop suey. I'm tempted to try again, assuming the futures fall into a void that will produce maximum discomfort at around 156^04. Go for it only if you've attended enough Wednesday tutorial sessions to understand what I'm talking about. _______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 8:55 p.m.): The 156^05 'magic number' flagged above caught the low within a single tick. Depending on what kind of set-up you used, the trade has gone on to produce a profit of as much as $1700 on four contracts with the futures currently trading at their high since bottoming at 115^05. If you still hold a fractional position, use D=156^21 as a price objective, implementing a trailing stop if and when it's hit. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 7:59 p.m.): The bounce went as high as 156^20, a single tick below where I'd suggested implementing a trailing stop. That's close enough to have kept you out of trouble and gotten you out
Bitcoin has lost its mojo for the moment. It's possible the Nasdaq and S&Ps will need to become white-hot again before the cryptos resume their natural role as leaders of bull-market insanity. Lately, however, Bertie, ETHE et al. have been unable to convert even the smallest bullish patterns into winners. We bailed out of one last week for a minimal loss, and although it has yet to be stopped out, its struggle to avoid this has been a sad spectacle. Let's see how the pattern shown plays out before we jump in again. The 'D' target at 56,456 will remain viable as long as C=45,491 is not exceeded to the downside. (The equivalent pattern in ETHE has already been stopped out.) _______ UPDATE (Jan 5, 9:16 p.m. EST): If the so-far tentative bounce from p2=42845 fails, look for more slippage to the 39,805 target of this pattern.
I've come to view bullion's rallies with cynical detachment, but that doesn't mean we can't exploit the gratuitous head-fakes, swoons and dives for trading purposes. The pattern shown should be up to the task, even if it failed to provide a 'mechanical' entry opportunity on either of two nasty feints to the green line. The pattern and the technique we use to leverage it 'mechanically' are too obscure to suggest we are getting front-run. Indeed, we should infer that gold futures are simply naturally nasty because they are controlled by some of the best-connected weasels in the trading world. We won't try to short D=1873.90, only observe how well it repels buyers. ______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 10:03 p.m. EST): Much as I'd like to tune out gold, the little s.o.b. would trip a 'mechanical' buy signal if it falls to the green line (1783.20). With a stop-loss at 1752.90 and implied entry risk of around $3,000 per contract, this gambit is recommended for 'camo' experts only. To all others, I would suggest paper-trading so that you can better understand how these set-ups work. _______ UPDATE (Jan 4, 5:07 p.m.): Here's a snack-size pattern to use for targeting and trading over the next day or two. It has triggered two 'mechanical' winners, but its main value now lies in its potential to measure trend strength via price action at D=1847.00. If you've made money on the way up, the target can be shorted with a very tight 'reverse' pattern that risks no more than $200 theoretical. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 8:04 p.m.): Perhaps you too are tiring of gold's relentlessly annoying rallies and phony breakdowns? Does this vehicle suck, or what?
Silver looks like a slightly better bet than gold to achieve the 'D' rally target of the modest 'reverse' pattern shown. It has signaled one 'mechanical' winner on the way to 23.85, but we are more interested at this point in how strongly the Hidden Pivot resists the uptrend. It has been tortuous and does not look powerful enough to blow through the resistance. Still, there is no reason to think this is impossible or even unlikely, so let's simply monitor the move closely and exploit it as we always do whenever the odds tilt in our favor. _______ UPDATE (Jan 3, 10:14 p.m. EST): Like February Gold, March Silver would trigger a 'mechanical' buy if it falls to the green line. The 21.40 stop-loss would make the trade equally risky, with $3,000 theoretical at stake on entry. This one, too, is therefore for experts who can pare that down to perhaps $300 per contract. Interested? Nudge me if I'm in the chat room at post time. _______ UPDATE (Jan 6, 8:12 p.m.): Time to remove Silver from the front page? I will do so shortly unless there's a popular uprising to save it.
I am updating DXY not because it has done anything interesting since November, but just to have the U.S. dollar on my 'new' front page. It has been locked in a consolidation pattern since then, although the year ended with an imminent but not necessarily serious breakdown. If the correction continues, it will allow me to switch to a more regular pattern instead of the fiercely gnarly one that has informed us the last month or so. Regardless, we can continue to use D=98.00 as a minimum upside objective for the bull cycle begun in May. It is part of a much larger, bull market that started in 2014. _______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 9:04 p.m. ET): The 98.00 target is in-the-bag, so let's shift our sights upward to the 102.83 D target of this reverse pattern. You can use p2=99.43 as a minimum upside objective for the near term. ______ UPDATE (Feb 3, 9:47 p.m.): The dollar has gone into a fake death dive after rallying to within easy distance of the 98.00 target drum-rolled above. We'll move to the sidelines for now, the better to sleep through the buck's indeterminate funk.
AAPL's megabucks sponsors had a bumpy ride last week, although you couldn't tell it from the weekly chart. It shows the stock in a placid, self-assured ascent toward the 187.93 bull-market target flagged here last week. As the week wore on, the stock was deftly used by DaBoyz in tag-team fashion to power the broad averages higher. When AAPL was getting hit, most stocks were on the rise, and vice versa. This is a very efficient way to keep the bull-market con alive, given that Apple's nearly $3 trillion capitalization can counterbalance money flows from a score of lesser, albeit highly visible, stocks. From a technical standpoint, we should regard a pullback to p=145.52 (stop 131.38) as an excellent 'mechanical' buying opportunity, although so fetching a bargain seems unlikely. There's a lesser rally target at 172.40 that should produce a discernible pause or pullback. We won't take it too seriously, though because the weekly-chart pattern that produced it is too obvious: A=123.13 on 6/4.
The felicitously gnarly pattern that I introduced here Wednesday night worked like a dream, signaling a huge 'mechanical' winner on the short side and keeping us properly skeptical for the duration of a vicious, two-day short squeeze. The clock ran out on us before the chiseled-in-stone downside target at 4478.75 could be achieved, however. It remains theoretically viable, even if not as enticing for bottom-fishing as it would have been on Friday at mid-session.
Gold has shown no net gain or loss in a year-and-a-half and will likely remain trapped in a nervous range until something very significant changes in the big economic/financial picture. The pattern shown, with a 1629.00 downside target given here earlier, has provided some excellent entry points for 'mechanical' and 'reverse' trades; but that's all gold is good for at the moment: just a trade. We can reconsider the dour outlook if the futures pop above mid-November's 1882 high or penetrates the downside target at 1629. The latter seems most unlikely, but the Hidden Pivot levels by themselves will remain useful in any event.
