We've been discussing Bonds lately and rightfully so as the fate of the entire economy awaits the direction Bonds will take at this proverbial important fork in the road. Although we could go long TBT (the inverse ETF of TLT) I find this TLT pattern to be much clearer as the b-c is short in duration, violent and of course single bars. Just like a good driver will always watch for activity much farther down the road than what's immediately in front of the car, a good pivoteer will look at how things could potentially play out and be prepared to enter a trade if such a scenario came to fruition. Ideally we would get a bounce in TLT and take us close to c at which point you can look to hop on board an a-b-c pattern down or just mechanically get short. If you are looking to do something fancy with options (perhaps a vertical put spread?) look for advice from our resident options guru mavin 1 on how you might play TLT short.
Brian Catalucci
AUY – Yamana Gold (Last:2.98)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksOnce considered the darling of the gold mining growth stocks Yamana has been left for dead after a brutal and relentless 4 year decline. While bitcoin and the general markets are garnering all the attention now would be the time to start accumulating the unloved gold miners. Our first clue that a turnaround was in the works was when the monthly p at $2.16 was missed by pennies and this has been followed by an impressive impulse leg on the daily. Things are starting to look interesting now. When the next leg of the gold bull market commences Yamana will surely resume its role as the Jewel in the golden crown.
More pain ahead
– Posted in: Free Rick's PicksFebruary saw the worst decline since 2016 and March kicked things off with another shellacking. Although the direction points lower in the near term we are still within the primary channel established starting in 2016. The top of the lower channel lies at 24100 and a break below this will imply a move down to the 21,700-22,000 area. Rising interest rates and tariffs seems to be the prevailing excuse for this correction. Naturally this is nonsense as the pundits always need to assign a fundamental reason to try to explain every move logically.
FE – First Energy (Last:33.03)
– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's PicksShares of embattled FE (First Energy) soared a month ago on news of a $2.5B equity investment by activist Paul Singer's Elliot Management. Is this turnaround after nine years of relentlessly grinding lower the real deal? No need to guess as we can use our Hidden Pivot techniques to identify underlying strength of any financial instrument long before it's clear to the rest of the masses. One such tool in our bag of technical tricks is we are sensitized to turnarounds at P2 -- and so far so good for FE. A move to $37.05 (as shown on chart) would create a subtle but powerful impulse leg. Keep an eye on this one in the chat room for early signals in lesser time frames (this one also happens to pay a 4.36% dividend!) [Tout prepared by David Isham]
XLU – SPDR Utils ETF (Last:50.12)
– Posted in: Current ToutsAre you looking for a place to park your parents' retirement money while earning a dividend? The XLU (SPDR Utilities) has pulled back since it made its all time high in November, but no damage has been done on the monthly and we are well within the visual channel. Using a one-off A and a confirmed reaction at P we can clearly see where this is headed. While you are waiting for the D target why not earn a 3.43% yield? This is a multi-year play so set your trading parameters and expectations accordingly. [Tout prepared by David Isham]
