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Trump About to Kick the Bear Market’s Ass

By Rick Ackerman Posted on April 6, 2025, 5:00 pm EDT Last Updated April 9, 2025, 4:08 pm EDT

A word of advice if you’re looking for bankable information on the direction of the economy:  tune out the mainstream media’s cavalcade of Trump-deranged bozos and focus on the 4820 target in the SPX chart above. Think of it as Trump’s lucky number, but also a very good place for these all-too-interesting times to find temporary equilibrium. That is my worst-case target for a bear market that many believe is only just getting started.  As a die-hard permabear myself, I’ve been eagerly anticipating the Mother of All Bears since, like, 2010. The global economy was badly in need of a reset and still is. It will happen, but not now. Instead, it looks like Trump is about to achieve the impossible, averting a catastrophic debt deflation while also staving off recession. Even the already certain collapse of commercial real estate will have to wait.

You cannot get to this happy place, psychologically speaking. if you stay tuned to the MSM morons who invent the news. You might as well listen to Whoopi Goldberg as to the “experts” who cover tariff news for MSNBC, The New York P.O.S. Times and Bloomberg. Bloomberg is probably the worst offender, since they literally live to kick Trump in the balls at every opportunity. (Don’t they know he’s wearing a Kevlar cup?)  The latest Bloomberg teaser headline sums up the mainstream media’s knee-jerk reaction to the Orange Man:  Trump’s Bear Market.  Leave it to Bloomberg’s sniveling lightweights to discover and attempt to exploit a bear market just as it’s ending. Indeed, the storm surge is due to blow out to sea before the news editors at Bloomberg, the Times and WAPO have reached the Kleenex phase of their long-running circle-jerk.

Christmas Glide Path

Tune them out and trust my 4820 target as a worst-case low for the bear market. To borrow Vizzini’s line, it is ‘INCONCEIVABLE!’ that the S&Ps will fall significantly below it, if at all. And that means Trump, Musk and their intrepid band of budget vigilantes will have put America back on a glide path just in time for Christmas.  In other words: no recession, no harmful fallout from the tariffs, and no serious disruptions from lawfare scumfuck Norm Eisen and other treasonous actors hell-bent on destroying the U.S. through the courts. Far from a tariff-induced recession, watch for felicitous stirrings in the Rust Belt, where union workers will be telling a very different story compared to the ‘Orange Man BAD!‘ narrative on MSNBC and CNN.

If you’re interested in precise bear market targets for the ‘lunatic-sector’ stocks, take a free trial to Rick’s Picks and see my post on this in the chat room, or find them in my latest interview on Howe Street. Prepare to have your mind blown three months from now by the precise accuracy of my forecasts for climactic declines in NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, NFLX, CMG, META and AMZN.

  • Bruce Katz April 10, 2025, 4:13 pm

    S&P is gonna rise between now and December? We’re more likely to be blown to bits by our Star.

    • Rick Ackerman April 11, 2025, 10:28 am

      Should I infer you’d lay me 500-to-1 odds, then, Bruce?

    • Bruce April 11, 2025, 3:22 pm

      Nothing in life is guaranteed but Father and Mother nature typically have the upper hand. On the other hand, what happened in Weimar and Argentina can certainly happen to the world economy. It’s a Titanic mess.

      • Rick Ackerman April 11, 2025, 9:31 pm

        Read Adam Fergusson’s ‘When Money Dies’ if you want to understand why a Weimar-type hyperinflation of the dollar is all but impossible. The endgame will be a deflationary event in which all financial assets are deleveraged.

  • Ben April 6, 2025, 9:41 pm

    I heard one Really Genius Economist say that it wasn’t a shark that Fonzi jumped over that put Happy Days on an irreversible down trend. No, it was one of Trump’s tariffs! But even before then, Marcia was hit in the face with a tariff, ruining her date with Doug! Trump’s tariffs have got to be stopped NOW, before it goes beyond tariffs…!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ts5wJ6OfzA

    Now, he concludes with asking how anyone will get on board with this new paradigm when the U.S. has “trust issues”. But while he gets so much right, to that point, he overlooks the case made in detailing the plan itself (it’s the economy, stupid!). Whats more, with war and threat of war on every horizon, who is going to want to stand on their own, when the alternative is being attacked and/or invaded by China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea? Speaking of which, when the POTUS has war-time powers activated, he can all but move Heaven and Earth to get things done… especially those things related to security, which re-industrialization is all about.

    It’s looking more and more, to me, that Trump will indeed get this done before his term is up. How about that!

    &&&&

    Yeah, but whad’ya think of that 4820 SPX target! RA

    • Ben April 9, 2025, 4:09 am

      Honestly… I don’t know what to think about that, other than surprised! A week ago, this seemed all but a remote possibility, at best. However, now that I know there’s a comprehensive plan, and not just tariffs per se, combined with your forecast…

      It all lines up! But here’s another thing…

      In the world of war and rumors of war: Iran is very brazen and not backing down; China blockading Taiwan as a military “exercise”; Russia now has ICBMs in Belarus, in addition to the huge build up for taking the Suwalki. North Korean military entered South Korea (not many, but it was a big deal)…

      Even if the market tanks and doesn’t recover, seems the POTUS will have war-time powers by which to all but move Heaven and Earth to get things done. So, come what may, this revival of America is happening!


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