Rates on the Ten-Year Note have fallen to 4.41% since peaking in mid-January at 4.81%.  The low was slightly beneath my target at 4.43%, an overshoot that mildly implies rates will continue lower. However, Friday’s bounce to 4.51% was significant enough to suggest the downtrend may have ended. I’ve given bulls the benefit of the don’t in TLT, which is equivalent to saying interest-rate bears — i.e., those expecting lower rates — deserve the same benefit of the doubt. However, if this bounce should exceed the 4.60% peak from February 2, that would be a reason to infer that rates bottomed with the recent low.