TLT – Lehman Bond ETF (Last:89.88)

The rally from mid-January’s low may seem impressive, but don’t expect much to come of it.  The ascent has occurred in two discrete upthrusts, neither of which exceeded an external peak.  The failure to do so was a matter of inches, but that’s all the more telling since it demonstrated that bulls manifestly lack the vigor and conviction to generate impulse legs on the daily chart, let alone effortless ones. I’ll remain skeptical until such time as TLT pops decisively above the 88.91 peak notched on December 20, then stays above it for two consecutive days. _______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 10:19 p.m. EST): I’ve been fighting off every bullish sign, but there is no denying the bullish implications of today’s breakaway gap through a clear Hidden Pivot target at 89.81.  Buyers will need to do a little better, pushing past the 90.99 ‘external’ peak recorded on December 17, to demonstrate their new prowess, but that shouldn’t be a problem given the power of today’s move.